mappy Posted April 28, 2017 Author Share Posted April 28, 2017 please no rain tomorrow AM, kiddo's first tee ball game is at 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, mappy said: please no rain tomorrow AM, kiddo's first tee ball game is at 9am. Yea I have to take 2 of our fire engines for pumps testing tomorrow. Hold off until the afternoon please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Hmmm...12z GFS at 06z SAT sounding at KIAD (TONIGHT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Hmmm...12z GFS at 06z SAT sounding at KIAD (TONIGHT) -314 CINH though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: -314 CINH though. 2000 MLCAPE though... maybe elevated hailers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 2000 MLCAPE though... maybe elevated hailers? Probably not. I would also not be surprised to see us fail on all of this potential over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 KDCA at the same time (06z SAT)... -221 CINH... but 2500+ MLCAPE... but also I would think that the CINH could be eroded by low level warm air advection since the DP's are increasing to the upper 60s to near 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Damn, you are bearish. The threat level's never gonna get off the ground thanks to you. FALL IN LINE DUDE Mehhhhh Also - the difference between the NAM/NAM nest and the HRRR is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 the last page reminds me of winter threats. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: the last page reminds me of winter threats. lol You will take my posted soundings and like them good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Analyzing soundings is always better than posting a damn snow map. hail accumulations maps are needed please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Damn, you are bearish. The threat level's never gonna get off the ground thanks to you. FALL IN LINE DUDE Question: If one person in a level is out, but another is in(kmlwx is out but high risk is in, for example), do we still move on to the next level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hrrr at 6z-7z looks busy.. The HRRR is only putting down ~0.25" of precip with the system coming out of WV, though. If it were really trying to pimp a nice event we'd see higher QPF values that that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2017 Author Share Posted April 28, 2017 even if storms fail tomorrow, the heat shouldn't. looks toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Tie goes to the Debbie Downer If we're only at YODA tomorrow and we rock blame KMLWX Define rocking though - if a lone cell goes through Yodaville and 90% of us get absolutely nothing I'll consider that a 50/50 split. I'll only consider a single cell a win if I get great pictures of the cell from afar or something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 High res guidance really hammering an early push of convection for everyone (5am - 9am), then shunting the afternoon stuff off well to our south. Might be another wasted day? My confidence is shaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: High res guidance really hammering an early push of convection for everyone (5am - 9am), then shunting the afternoon stuff off well to our south. Might be another wasted day? My confidence is shaken. Late night severe is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: High res guidance really hammering an early push of convection for everyone (5am - 9am), then shunting the afternoon stuff off well to our south. Might be another wasted day? My confidence is shaken. And now the chips start to fall into place. EJ will pull his support for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: High res guidance really hammering an early push of convection for everyone (5am - 9am), then shunting the afternoon stuff off well to our south. Might be another wasted day? My confidence is shaken. Latest HRRR takes the line through between 3 and 4am in DC. Also upped the QPF some which is good to see. However, it does seem to be on an island compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: And now the chips start to fall into place. EJ will pull his support for the event. Naw, I'm in still. Very much still in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, MN Transplant said: Latest HRRR takes the line through between 3 and 4am in DC. Also upped the QPF some which is good to see. However, it does seem to be on an island compared to other guidance. 1730 SPC disco did hint at morning storms in its disco... granted it is more toward PA, but still: FARTHER EAST, MODELS SUGGEST SPARSE STORM COVERAGE FROM OH EAST INTO PA AFTER MORNING STORMS BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OWING TO A CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE BUOYANCY/SHEAR SETUP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 246 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide off the southeast coast Saturday. A cold front will move over Pennsylvania Saturday before lifting back northward Sunday. A stronger cold front will move through the region Monday. Canadian high pressure will build over the area during midweek. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... Sunny skies for the remainder of the afternoon, and continued mostly clear this evening. Clouds will increase after midnight ahead of a warm front moving into OH. Almost all models keep the deep moisture to our north, but the HRRR has consistently been painting a picture of convection moving east of the mountains around midnight...moving through the Bay between 3-4 am. My confidence level on that occurring is not good, but given its consistency I feel I have to keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms across the northern part of the forecast area. Lows primarily in the 60s, but the cities may not drop below 70. This has never happened before in DC - record high min is 69 set in 1896. The year 1896 holds the record high min for Baltimore for five consecutive nights in April. They did only drop to 70 on April 19, 1896. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Sometimes the HRRR latches onto something and is spot on, who knows. I'm just hoping we torch tomorrow and get like a few rogue big hailers wherever that just cream someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2017 Author Share Posted April 28, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I heard 3-5" for Mappyland, .5 for Baltimore and bupkis imby but I can't confirm. My internet is down so I can't post model maps. Can you pull up wxbell for me? Is it January or April? 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: High res guidance really hammering an early push of convection for everyone (5am - 9am), then shunting the afternoon stuff off well to our south. Might be another wasted day? My confidence is shaken. SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH if we don't talk about it, maybe it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 FWIW, the RPM does have have the morning convection (3A-7A) race through the southern half of VA with ZILCH in the afternoon. It's the RPM/HRRR vs. everybody else. Will be interesting to see how it all unfolds, but it is very interesting that the 3km NAM has all the convection in PA. Normally you'd see the NAM and RPM somewhat in line (since RPM is based off NAM initial conditions and a few other things). That's not the case this time... Which is really odd. It showed it last night as well and has been firm in its stance (RPM, that is) for giving us storms tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Tomorrow afternoon's potential is pretty much going to be determined by what happens tomorrow morning. Looks like there could be some shortwave subsidence (which is also kind of hinted at in some soundings) throughout the morning and afternoon hours and with rising heights tomorrow it may remain quite capped. If any updrafts can break the cap, however, they will take off incredibly quickly. I would guess we would see something go from a shower to severe in the matter of a few scans. I could picture like near 70 dbz up to like 30K or something...if of course a storm were to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 18z HRRR was more like other guidance, with the main game up north in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 18z HRRR was more like other guidance, with the main game up north in PA. 18z NAM arguing there is no CAPE up there... all the MLCAPE/SBCAPE is down here. Most of the soundings look like loaded guns for the region... esp as ML Lapse rates are around 6.5C/KM to 7.0 C/KM... so a bit of an EML moving through? MLCAPE is 2000-2500 and 0-6km shear is excellent... decent SRH and SWEAT index is >400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 18z HRRR was more like other guidance, with the main game up north in PA. 19z HRRR has a decent line moving into W VA around 06z... but then it kinda falls apart but rain still overspreads the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: SWEAT index? That's new to me. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/304/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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