WxReese Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 That VBV wind profile, though.... MEH. It will be fun to see if someone in SE VA could get to 5000 CAPE Saturday afternoon. Outside chance it happens. If any storms get going with that, woo boy! Speaking of April 27, 2011, that wasn't fun to cover as a "newbie" on TV. I was 6 months on the job in Columbus, GA and that event capped a ridiculous spring. Heck, they're experiencing an even more ridiculous month down there with several confirmed tornadoes in my old viewing area, including today. Needless to say, I learned a ton and carry that experience to Charlottesville... Where... Storms "try" to form and blow up near US 15. Then again, we've had 3 hailers so far this year with another one, potentially, Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 To clarify, I do not expect a lot of activity just one or three rogue cells. But anything that does go up would be amazing to watch for this area. Hence my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 18z NAM soundings from 21z SAT to 03z SUN still raising some alarm bells IMO... though as others have said we need some CI first... but if there are any storms, they could really go to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 18z NAM supercell composite is pretty high in MD around 00z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: You know there's potential when @weatherwiz is posting. Always appreciate your severe posts, Wiz. I have no real expectations for Saturday. Still have some time to see something pop though. That's exceptional. Thank you! Yeah this definitely isn't a severe weather outbreak setup...probably only a few cells, however, given the projected environment any cells would quickly take off and considering we would only be looking at a few cells enhances the severe potential of those few cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 5 hours ago, yoda said: Well the sounding is at MTN... what about closer to us at IAD/DCA? Very intriguing post though Wiz Soundings are actually just as sexy but unfortunately I think that is a bit too far south. Dry air works in in the lower levels during the early afternoon and heights continue to rise so capping will be a huge issue and I don't see any real forcing mechanism. Even further north into MD might have issues with forcing but the PA/MD border could be something to watch as they could be just close enough to some forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 NAM 3k is showing one or two strong cells making a pass through the DC Beltway between 6 and 11pm Saturday, large MLCape available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 00z NAM soundings are going nuts with the SARS severe hail... dozens upon dozens of 2.75-4.50" hail matches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I wouldn't sleep on some activity Sunday or Monday either. At least we have something to track.. To be fair few have been sleeping on Monday. But Sunday is also definitely starting to look like a day with where any storm that forms could go bonkers. Still watching of course. Front placement, forcing, and all that good 'ole stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, George BM said: To be fair few have been sleeping on Monday. But Sunday is also definitely starting to look like a day with where any storm that forms could go bonkers. Still watching of course. Front placement and all that good 'ole stuff. exactly. Saturday and Sunday qualify as legitimate sleeper days. Models have been showing a strong frontal passage on Monday for days now - good wind field but a few questions about instability. Saturday is obviously intriguing, and I agree that Sunday is worth a look too. There will be a NW-SE boundary sitting around for a storm to latch on to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z NAM soundings are going nuts with the SARS severe hail... dozens upon dozens of 2.75-4.50" hail matches not surprised. people have noted the huge cape values which are the result of truly insane mid-level lapse rates. Parcel accelerations and resultant large hail generation would be a lock if a few storms do erupt. I don't, however, like seeing ~20 kt at jet level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yup. Not giving me a particularly warm feeling. There will be all kinds of radar hallucinations lol. Question--I've heard many times that storms that break through the cap can be especially strong. Why is that? Does it have anything to do with the amount of instability that exists? What's the mechanism for breaking the cap usually? I don't think it will be a hallucination day; if the cap can be broken in a few spots, the resultant cells will have massive reflectivity signatures. (I'm just not sure if supercell structures can be maintained.) If the cap holds, the radar will be blank. Having a modest cap can be good for getting intense storms. First, it delays initiation, which often means that heating (and resultant instability) is maximized. Without a cap, storms may initiate early. Also, sometimes when a cap is in place, it prevents widespread coverage (unless the forcing is crazy). This gives storms a better chance to stay discrete and not interfere with each other. The cap can be broken many ways: the simplest way is afternoon sfc heating (or moistening). But with stronger caps, that isn't enough, and you need something to lift the air which can erode the cap. A front or outflow boundary might do the trick. Sometimes it takes a strong shortwave, but the fun ones are when you're close to breaking the cap but think it won't happen, and then a subtle shortwave arrives and is able to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Still bigly excited at the next three days with tomorrow being my favorite. Not thinking too much activity, but anyone that gets under a cell tomorrow will be winning like there's no tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Hmmmm.... Latest HRRR runs are showing the convection train developing further south than before. Perhaps there could be additional cloud cover tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 09z HRRRx model for Saturday morning. Hmmmm.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 ^getting there, although if I'm looking at the UTC time correctly this is early AM convection which would spoil any afternoon heat/activity potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^getting there, although if I'm looking at the UTC time correctly this is early AM convection which would spoil any afternoon heat/activity potential. It's also the HRRRx at range, though. And that's still pretty early - enough that if it can clear out we could still destabilize nicely. I'm still not in for tomorrow. But I do like when we have low probs from SPC going into an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^getting there, although if I'm looking at the UTC time correctly this is early AM convection which would spoil any afternoon heat/activity potential. Makes sense to me now when I was looking at the 00z NAM souindings that it had a spike in instability and SRH around 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Maybe we can muster mini van sized hail at 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 12z NAM sounding at KDCA at 09z... looks like even a slight tor threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Tonights going to be ugly DP-wise if the 12z NAM is to believed... DP's rise into the 65-70 range after midnight, which suggests to me at least that if the HRRRx is wrong, its going to be a very humid morning. 12z NAM also has a pool of 70+ DP's Saturday evening in the N VA/MD region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Tonights going to be ugly DP-wise if the 12z NAM is to believed... DP's rise into the 65-70 range after midnight, which suggests to me at least that if the HRRRx is wrong, its going to be a very humid morning If HRRRx is wrong with convection, then it's going to feel like deep summer tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: If HRRRx is wrong with convection, then it's going to feel like deep summer tomorrow AM. 12z NAM also has a pool of 70+ DP's across N VA/DC/MD from 21z SAT to 03z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 12z NAM also has a pool of 70+ DP's across N VA/DC/MD around 21z Bigly summer feel tomorrow. Bring.It.On. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Bigly summer feel tomorrow. Bring.It.On. HX near 100 ftw. Hopefully we can get some CI tomorrow afternoon/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 12z NAM SARS still going nuts for sig svr hail if we can get a storm to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 12z NAM SARS still going nuts for sig svr hail if we can get a storm to go You got any of those cool images bruh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You got any of those cool images bruh? Around DCA at 03z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (This is just NW of Columbia, MD FYI) at 03z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Quick change of gears... DCA at 06z TONIGHT... looks like some fun maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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