mappy Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I'll check them out. I'm really bummed TVN isn't around anymore. I don't think Severestudios is nearly as good. Yeah, i never followed that stuff much. Was always just a radar watcher and on twitter for updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Sig Tor is 2.8 for MoCo tomorrow and Supercell Parameters are up to 8, last I checked on the NAM 3km. Hoping we at least have some good severe tomorrow. Will be watching today. @mappy What forums do you usually follow for general threats? I love AmWX here for snow and for DC, but I'd love to know the most active place following today's threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Sig Tor is 2.8 for MoCo tomorrow and Supercell Parameters are up to 8, last I checked on the NAM 3km. Hoping we at least have some good severe tomorrow. Will be watching today. @mappy What forums do you usually follow for general threats? I love AmWX here for snow and for DC, but I'd love to know the most active place following today's threat. It's been a long time since we've had one of those multi-model discrete storms merging into a line with pockets of urban flash flooding days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 ESRL is running the HRRR experimentally out to 36 hours (2x/day, I believe), and the output is at https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/ The 12z run is pretty insane. it has the same idea as the 3km NAM parallel nest, with a lead line across the northern burbs that washes out. It leaves a boundary behind that initiates several elevated supercells, and then a big honking squall line is about to roll through at the end of the run. Updraft helicity has some nice tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's been a long time since we've had one of those multi-model discrete storms merging into a line with pockets of urban flash flooding days. Multi-modal... sorry it took me awhile to get what you meant lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Sig Tor is 2.8 for MoCo tomorrow and Supercell Parameters are up to 8, last I checked on the NAM 3km. Hoping we at least have some good severe tomorrow. Will be watching today. @mappy What forums do you usually follow for general threats? I love AmWX here for snow and for DC, but I'd love to know the most active place following today's threat. Well, there is a thread in the Lakes/Midwest subforum following today's stuff. Lots of good posters there If you are on Twitter --- the ustornadoes twitter has tons of list of pros and amateurs a like that you can follow https://twitter.com/USTornadoes/lists Hope this helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 15z SREFs mean sup composite parameter for 00z THUR... looks very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I like the fact that there is no temp inversion tomorrow and 70s make it to the MD line. Also GFS is wrong, it has spits out bogus orographic qpf over the mountains during some events. However, lack of clearing maybe a problem and crapvection may still cause issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: ESRL is running the HRRR experimentally out to 36 hours (2x/day, I believe), and the output is at https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/ The 12z run is pretty insane. it has the same idea as the 3km NAM parallel nest, with a lead line across the northern burbs that washes out. It leaves a boundary behind that initiates several elevated supercells, and then a big honking squall line is about to roll through at the end of the run. Updraft helicity has some nice tracks. That's been honking that scenario since yesterday I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's been honking that scenario since yesterday I believe. Actually, that has been the 3km NAM parallel nest. The extended HRRR just got into range with the 12z cycle today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: Actually, that has been the 3km NAM parallel nest. The extended HRRR just got into range with the 12z cycle today. What has the verification been like with that experimental HRRR? If you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: What has the verification been like with that experimental HRRR? If you know? The new version has been doing pretty well, but extending out beyond day 1 is still somewhat unchartered territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, high risk said: The new version has been doing pretty well, but extending out beyond day 1 is still somewhat unchartered territory. Thanks! Yeah I'd assume with a model like the HRRR past day 1 is like the 240+ GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 LOL HWO finally mentions that spotter activation will likely be required Wednesday afternoon... and best time threat is 1pm to 9pm... I would argue more like 2pm to 11pm... but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: LOL HWO finally mentions that spotter activation will likely be required Wednesday afternoon... and best time threat is 1pm to 9pm... I would argue more like 2pm to 11pm... but whatever 9pm is probably fine unless you're closer to, and east of the bay. Remember that these things once they get rolling tend to unfold a bit faster than expected. Plus, we don't tend to do multiple rounds very well unless they track over different areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 LWX Updated AFD...their language suggests we might wake up with a strongly worded ENH: Quote .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ..Significant weather day expected on Wednesday with strong to severe thunderstorms... Cold front will approach the region during the day on Wednesday with deep moist southwest flow out ahead of the front. Expecting temperatures to surge well into the 70s to near 80F, with dew points in the 50s to around 60F, which should help generate 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE. This combined with 0-6KM shear of 60-70 knots and 850-mb flow of 50-60 knots will set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Exact evolution of thunderstorms will be dependent on how remnant activity from today plays out, but expecting some morning activity across our northern zones to give way to main convective period from about 18z-03z. It should be noted that some solutions depict an earlier start time, beginning about 16z. Main threat is expected to be damaging winds associated with a squall line, but large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado are also possible given steep lapse rates and impressive shear profiles. Activity will wane Wednesday night following frontal passage. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front with some upslope rain/snow showers. Lows Wednesday night in the 30s/40s. Cooler and breezy conditions on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 My motto is always MDT OR BUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: My motto is always MDT OR BUST Hatched 60% or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hatched 60% or bust I'll take any hatching and run with it. And even then we're still bust prone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I think there are 2 fail mechanisms: 1) the cloud issue that has been discussed plenty already limiting instability 2) northern lead squall line sends an outflow boundary through the area that wipes out sfc-based instability, although we'd still potentially get a strong elevated squall line (but no sig svr), while we watch supercells roll along that boundary into La Plata Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, high risk said: I think there are 2 fail mechanisms: 1) the cloud issue that has been discussed plenty already limiting instability 2) northern lead squall line sends an outflow boundary through the area that wipes out sfc-based instability, although we'd still potentially get a strong elevated squall line (but no sig svr), while we watch supercells roll along that boundary into La Plata We've certainly seen #2 happen, though I wonder if my memory is more focused on stagnant summer-type events than dynamic upper-air events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, high risk said: I think there are 2 fail mechanisms: 1) the cloud issue that has been discussed plenty already limiting instability 2) northern lead squall line sends an outflow boundary through the area that wipes out sfc-based instability, although we'd still potentially get a strong elevated squall line (but no sig svr), while we watch supercells roll along that boundary into La Plata That happened on June 13, 2013 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130613). We had a Day 2 MOD that resulted in an early morning YUGE discrete cell which blasted Frederick, Carroll and Howard counties. It bore several other cells as it raced along I-70 that killed the SC instability. Eventually, the Day 1 MOD was shifted about 200 miles south and NC got rakked. A lone cell in West Virginia saved the day for the DC area that afternoon and produced a 20 mile long EF-0 tornado. I remember it like yesterday because it was my first tornado assessment as an EM with LWX WFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 The 18z NAM dialed back fairly measurably in parameters. Still looks okay - but those crazy numbers in SCP and such are much lower. That's the regular NAM not the hires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I will be more than happy to have the storms wash out north of Charles County and lay down the boundary across the DC and north area, I also believe that tonight's Ohio Valley convection is going to play havoc with debris clouds. However, I also believe that will be more likely from DC and north. Already some discussion that storms may have trouble initiating in Arkansas. We shall see. Arkansas supercells and upscale growth into Tennessee and then West Virginia/SW VA would be the storms to truly put a cirrus shield overhead here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tornado Watch for Chicago... I thought I remembered seeing something that Hoosier and Eskimo Joe were discussing re Chicago proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 There are cells attempting to fire south and west of Little Rock, those collapse and we have some significant clearing tomorrow. If these cells grow then we have cirrus overhead tomorrow. Whether the dynamics can overcome the lack of surface heating via sunshine remains to be seen. There could be quite a pocket of cold air aloft and lapse rates coming across the Appalachians tomorrow late day. Climatology suggests we should be looking for a conservative solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 34 minutes ago, Quincy said: The sig tor potential likely peaks this evening and note that the watch ends at 9 p.m. Look for a downstream PDS tor watch tonight IF storms remain discrete as they move toward the Ohio River and the LLJ really cranks. Re Tor Watches #41/#42 (question was asked why not higher tor probs, and this was Quincy's answer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 minute ago, southmdwatcher said: There are cells attempting to fire south and west of Little Rock, those collapse and we have some significant clearing tomorrow. If these cells grow then we have cirrus overhead tomorrow. Whether the dynamics can overcome the lack of surface heating via sunshine remains to be seen. There could be quite a pocket of cold air aloft and lapse rates coming across the Appalachians tomorrow late day. Climatology suggests we should be looking for a conservative solution. Yeah, but what's the fun in that!? Anyway, it'll be "interesting" to see what happens tomorrow. I'm keeping my feelings in check in regards to tomorrow. But it's difficult, specially when I got that storm in Charlottesville Saturday and was acting like a little kid again. I want that feeling again! Then again, I'd be working and would have to do coverage on TV... Doesn't make the storms NEARLY as "fun", honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 The lack of an esterly component to the surface winds anywhere near here has me a bit excited about tomorrow. Also like the fact that there is not a sharp windshift line. That may help keep things more discrete. However, there are still several issues which have been discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxReese said: Yeah, but what's the fun in that!? Anyway, it'll be "interesting" to see what happens tomorrow. I'm keeping my feelings in check in regards to tomorrow. But it's difficult, specially when I got that storm in Charlottesville Saturday and was acting like a little kid again. I want that feeling again! Then again, I'd be working and would have to do coverage on TV... Doesn't make the storms NEARLY as "fun", honestly. I agree, a great supercell is fun to track and watch. They are a spectacular event. As long as it doesn't decide to unload on your backyard with the worst of it's capabilities. Tomorrow still has the chance to be on the higher end of expectations. Severe weather event busts happen in the very short term, both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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