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2017 Severe Thread

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, yoda said:

18z NAM soundings at 00z Sunday for KIAD and KDCA set off a few alarm bells in my opinion... notice the quick increase in EHI/sup potential/SRH from 21z to 00z... 

 

    intriguing for sure, but I don't like seeing the 250 winds currently progged at only 20-25 kt.    Still, if we can get one or two cells to somehow pop, would think that some decent hail would be possible.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, high risk said:

 

    intriguing for sure, but I don't like seeing the 250 winds currently progged at only 20-25 kt.    Still, if we can get one or two cells to somehow pop, would think that some decent hail would be possible.

00z NAM soundings for 21z and 00z at both KDCA and KIAD look like a loaded gun ready for firing... KBWI at 00z certainly suggest a tor threat with its sounding... getting interested on maybe some big isolated storms in the region Saturday evening

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, yoda said:

00z NAM soundings for 21z and 00z at both KDCA and KIAD look like a loaded gun ready for firing... KBWI at 00z certainly suggest a tor threat with its sounding... getting interested on maybe some big isolated storms in the region Saturday evening

Yea that's the thing with Saturday...there won't be much on the radar just a few winners and many losers.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that's the thing with Saturday...there won't be much on the radar just a few winners and many losers.

Definitely has the feel of the type of day when a long cell drops a swath of like golfball hail and wind damage in a super narrow corridor. 

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George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

4500 CAPE and nada...exactly. 

So what do we do when the WxWatcher scale is at odds with itself. Eskimo Joe is "in" but I am out ;)

Actually I think of the scale as parameters.

Kwlwx: 1

Eskimo Joe: Higher than Kwlwx

Yoda: Fairly High

Etc.

High cape with no forcing: storms can't form. Need multiple parameters and forcing for storms to form, just as multiple people need to be "in" for hypes to organize.............If you understood anything that I just said.

 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, George BM said:

Actually I think of the scale as parameters.

Kwlwx: 1

Eskimo Joe: Higher than Kwlwx

Yoda: Fairly High

Etc.

High cape with no forcing: storms can't form. Need multiple parameters and forcing for storms to form, just as multiple people need to be "in" for hypes to organize.............If you understood anything that I just said.

 

Wait what? Yoda is the lowest on the scale. He gets excited for a rumble of thunder ;)

I'm medium-ish 

EJ is like the world is ending. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

1630z OTLK has marginal risk just west of I-95 for this afternoon into evening

Quote 

...OH/PA/NY/WV/VA...
   The latest surface analysis shows a cold front sweeping eastward
   across Lower MI and western OH. Only broken cloud cover ahead of the
   front is helping surface temperatures to climb through the mid 70s,
   resulting in steep low-level lapse rates and marginal instability.
   12z CAM solutions are relatively consistent that scattered showers
   and thunderstorm development this afternoon along/ahead of the front
   from eastern OH into much of WV and western PA.  The storms will
   eventually spread into central PA/VA and western MD this evening. 
   Strongly considered an upgrade to SLGT over parts of this corridor. 
   However, forecast soundings suggest very little CAPE and mid-level
   lapse rate only in the 6.0 C/km range.  It is likely that a few
   fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will pose a risk of
   gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon.  This region will be
   re-evaluated for an upgrade to SLGT at 20z.
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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

I should have clarified that today is the 6 year anniversary of the 2011 ''super outbreak'' and it's ironic to see at least 2 confirmed tornadoes ongoing today...with no red box nonetheless.  The event later transitioned into several tornadoes during the wee hours of April 28th in our neck of the woods.  Just felt it ever so tangentially connected with our region.  I'll shut up now.

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I should have clarified that today is the 6 year anniversary of the 2011 ''super outbreak'' and it's ironic to see at least 2 confirmed tornadoes ongoing today...with no red box nonetheless.  The event later transitioned into several tornadoes during the wee hours of April 28th in our neck of the woods.  Just felt it ever so tangentially connected with our region.  I'll shut up now.

      At the risk of going too far off track, we even had some tornadoes around here in the late afternoon / early evening hours (while the horror was occurring in the deep south), including one near Andrews AFB.  During the midnight hours, there was a long track EF2 in the Shenandoah Valley.    We were in tornado watches for something like 18 straight hours,  which is almost impossible to do here.

        Back to Saturday, I'm mostly out for now.   Hard to ignore the lack of initiation in the hi-res guidance, although a close inspection of soundings suggests that the cap isn't ferocious.

      

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
Just now, high risk said:

      At the risk of going too far off track, we even had some tornadoes around here in the late afternoon / early evening hours (while the horror was occurring in the deep south), including one near Andrews AFB.  During the midnight hours, there was a long track EF2 in the Shenandoah Valley.    We were in tornado watches for something like 18 straight hours,  which is almost impossible to do here.

        Back to Saturday, I'm mostly out for now.   Hard to ignore the lack of initiation in the hi-res guidance, although a close inspection of soundings suggests that the cap isn't ferocious.

      

Yea, that was an insane event locally.  

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

HOLY CRAP AT THIS SOUNDING!!!!!

This is absolutely nuts.  I mean look at that lapse rates all the way up to the tropopause.  Hail cape almost 600 J/KG.  This setup Saturday has potential to be a rather prolific hail setup.  We could be talking like storms capable of baseball hail...or bigger.  This is insane.  Obviously everything will have to fall in place but this is rather eye opening 

sounding_zpso8aunvge.jpg

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Treckasec

Treckasec

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

HOLY CRAP AT THIS SOUNDING!!!!!

This is absolutely nuts.  I mean look at that lapse rates all the way up to the tropopause.  Hail cape almost 600 J/KG.  This setup Saturday has potential to be a rather prolific hail setup.  We could be talking like storms capable of baseball hail...or bigger.  This is insane.  Obviously everything will have to fall in place but this is rather eye opening 

sounding_zpso8aunvge.jpg

I'd temper expectations. No real forcing mechanism and slightly capped. Might be preparation for 9999 CAPE summer days where nothing happens.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, high risk said:

      At the risk of going too far off track, we even had some tornadoes around here in the late afternoon / early evening hours (while the horror was occurring in the deep south), including one near Andrews AFB.  During the midnight hours, there was a long track EF2 in the Shenandoah Valley.    We were in tornado watches for something like 18 straight hours,  which is almost impossible to do here.

        Back to Saturday, I'm mostly out for now.   Hard to ignore the lack of initiation in the hi-res guidance, although a close inspection of soundings suggests that the cap isn't ferocious.

      

Green = EF 0/1 Yellow = EF2

27th and 28th

Working2.jpg

Working3.JPG

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Treckasec said:

I'd temper expectations. No real forcing mechanism and slightly capped. Might be preparation for 9999 CAPE summer days where nothing happens.

Wasn't saying I'd expect that...just talking about what potential would exist if everything was in place.  That's a ridiculous sounding.  Don't see it that unstable up to tropopause that often, especially in warm season 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

HOLY CRAP AT THIS SOUNDING!!!!!

This is absolutely nuts.  I mean look at that lapse rates all the way up to the tropopause.  Hail cape almost 600 J/KG.  This setup Saturday has potential to be a rather prolific hail setup.  We could be talking like storms capable of baseball hail...or bigger.  This is insane.  Obviously everything will have to fall in place but this is rather eye opening 

sounding_zpso8aunvge.jpg

Well the sounding is at MTN... what about closer to us at IAD/DCA?  :lol:

Very intriguing post though Wiz

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