yoda Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Lot of wind damage reports on the LSRs from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 40 minutes ago, yoda said: Lot of wind damage reports on the LSRs from LWX Tornado report in Fairfax county per SPC's daily reports. Imagine they'll check that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Now a tornado report in DC estimated EF-0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 20 hours ago, high risk said: Looking at the evening guidance, the timing has definitely slowed down which makes this a more intriguing event for much of the area. Both NAM and RAP/HRRR bring 1000+ sfc cape into our area by midday. The shear gets weaker as we go into the afternoon due to the sfc winds veering, but there looks to be a window (perhaps between 11AM and 2PM) when instability and shear align. The fail mechanism would be that both the NAM nest and HRRR show a lot of convection through the area during the early morning hours (2 rounds in some HRRR solutions), and while those solutions verbatim clear us out quickly behind that activity, we've all seen svr days here bust due to morning rain/convection reinforcing the wedge and preventing heating. Thunder with widespread heavy rainfall seems like a fairly good probability during the early hours; whether there is a SVR event behind that remains to be seen but is not a total longshot either. I wanted to bring attention to the post I wrote around midnight last night. I'm showing it again not to toot my own horn, but to emphasize the point made in here earlier about the amazing progress that has been made in NWP. In this post, all I did was rehash what the guidance was showing yesterday evening, and it painted a pretty damn good picture of how today would evolve. The runs earlier this morning then showed the finer details of that line sweeping southwest to northeast across the area. Not every forecast is that good, and some end up really poor, but it's amazing to see from where NWP has come and where it's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: I wanted to bring attention to the post I wrote around midnight last night. I'm showing it again not to toot my own horn, but to emphasize the point made in here earlier about the amazing progress that has been made in NWP. In this post, all I did was rehash what the guidance was showing yesterday evening, and it painted a pretty damn good picture of how today would evolve. The runs earlier this morning then showed the finer details of that line sweeping southwest to northeast across the area. Not every forecast is that good, and some end up really poor, but it's amazing to see from where NWP has come and where it's going. Definitely. The radar this afternoon and some of last night's high-res model simulations for this afternoon looked nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 Creeks and streams running real high up here. I saw the Gunpowder River earlier and it was running real fast, quite turbulent and much higher then I've seen it. Given the flood watch, I can only imagine what it's like further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 So once again, EJ was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Scratch. Excellent storm day. One confirmed TOR in DC and probably another one here at the basin. Trifecta possible with the area around Union Station? I heard this might be the first April tornado for DC proper since 1950? Ha, no not that far back. Last time a tornado went into DC proper was the outbreak of 9/24/01. An EF1 that started in VA, and ended in Central DC An EF3 that started in N DC and ended in MD (this is the same tornado that killed 2 in College Park) Prior to that an EF0 touched down briefly in May of 1995 ETA: ah ****, you said in April. Then yes, first April tornado since 1950. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 10 hours ago, yoda said: So once again, EJ was wrong Eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 12 hours ago, yoda said: So once again, EJ was wrong SPC too kinda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 2 hours ago, AmericanWxFreak said: SPC too kinda Ian has a nice .gif of this. Denser population DC-PHL means higher bust potential. Outside of us wx nerds, there's no problem with throwing a D1 slight risk out, IMO, especially with the dynamics of the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Between this photo from WaPo and the NPS video, me thinks this is going to verify a second tornado in DC: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/04/07/tornadoes-touched-down-in-the-district-on-thursday-thats-only-happened-twice-before/?utm_term=.183fe62f46b3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Confirmed. More interesting wx production in one day from severe than all of last fall and winter combined. Went right over my wife's office in Pentagon City. I gave her crap for saying there were "little tornadoes" around. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Went right over my wife's office in Pentagon City. I gave her crap for saying there were "little tornadoes" around. Oops. So, I guess I saw my first tornado yesterday. From my point of view, the rotation wasn't evident enough for me to be confident, but the cloud motion was unlike anything I've ever seen. Given the number of tornado warnings that don't verify around here, it is supremely ironic that none of the tornadoes in DC yesterday occurred under a tornado warning. It just goes to show how tough a job the NWS folks have, especially with these QLCS spin-ups. By the time they show up on radar, they're gone. Nonetheless, given how weak these were, I'm not sure a tornado warning was really necessary. The winds associated with these EF0s are not much different than the wind speeds advertised in those warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted April 8, 2017 Share Posted April 8, 2017 Absolutely nuts yesterday. No joke, the winds were 40-50 MPH for 10 minutes straight, with a peak gust of 58MPH (yeah boi, svr). Awesome. And no trees down, which is a plus EDIT: I see APG hit 69MPH... damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 8, 2017 Share Posted April 8, 2017 17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Deep down, were you a little jealous? A little, but if it can't be immediately identified as a tornado, it wasn't a big miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Since we track winter events at day 7, why not do the same for svr threats? Thinking that next Monday has good potential here. Strong trough is likely to approach with strong low level and upper jets, good moisture in place, and a well-timed cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, high risk said: Since we track winter events at day 7, why not do the same for svr threats? Thinking that next Monday has good potential here. Strong trough is likely to approach with strong low level and upper jets, good moisture in place, and a well-timed cold front. True... LWX has mentioned that day in its LR disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 hours ago, high risk said: Since we track winter events at day 7, why not do the same for svr threats? Thinking that next Monday has good potential here. Strong trough is likely to approach with strong low level and upper jets, good moisture in place, and a well-timed cold front. If the radar doesn't look like this, it's a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 I like...training tornadoes. Wedges on wedges on wedges on wedges. Bigly wedges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 In all seriousness though, don't completely sleep on Saturday though. While it's certainly a bit of a stretch right now, if storms early Saturday in the Midwest can remain organized through the day they may meet fairly decent CAPE w/ fairly decent effective shear in the area later in the day. But this is a little more than speculation at this point. I will low-key watch it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 I like the soundings from the 12z NAM for Saturday afternoon and evening 4000 SBCAPE at KIAD 00z SUN with LI's at -7 and 0-6km shear 35-40 kts and MLCAPE around 3500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: I like the soundings from the 12z NAM for Saturday afternoon and evening 4000 SBCAPE at KIAD 00z SUN with LI's at -7 and 0-6km shear 35-40 kts and MLCAPE around 3500 agree fully that the environment for Saturday is pretty volatile - just not sure if we can get storms to initiate. But there is a hint of initiation in the 12z NAM, so it bears watching. the better forcing, along with impressive wind fields through the column, is still on track for Monday. Still some question about how much instability will be available, but I'm still on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, high risk said: agree fully that the environment for Saturday is pretty volatile - just not sure if we can get storms to initiate. But there is a hint of initiation in the 12z NAM, so it bears watching. the better forcing, along with impressive wind fields through the column, is still on track for Monday. Still some question about how much instability will be available, but I'm still on board. Saturday looks better the further north you are ATM. I'm watching what any potential MCS/remnant MCS does in the Midwest/Ohio Valley early in the day. Northern areas look to have the greatest threat..........should anything like this materialize. Still very uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 26, 2017 Author Share Posted April 26, 2017 Keeping an eye on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Bigly interested in Saturday. Anything that fires could have rocket fuel to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Oh yea, Monday looks decent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Bigly interested in Saturday. Anything that fires could have rocket fuel to work with. 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Oh yea, Monday looks decent too. I see... @WxWatcher007 do you see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Saturday sounds like the kind of day where we'll see ONE cell drop copious hail and damaging winds and everyone else gets heat and humidity and nothing else. I'm not "in" on either day...but I'm watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Saturday sounds like the kind of day where we'll see ONE cell drop copious hail and damaging winds and everyone else gets heat and humidity and nothing else. I'm not "in" on either day...but I'm watching. Hail? I volunteer for the heat, humidity, and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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