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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty rare for us to get a line of strong storms rotating around cyclonic flow centered to our NW. The SE-NW orientation and movement is backwards from what we typically see (NE-SW)

Amazing how that line in the last 20 minutes has curved around to look like the HRRR orientation.  Sometimes we have to stop to marvel at how good the models really are.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

Amazing how that line in the last 20 minutes has curved around to look like the HRRR orientation.  Sometimes we have to stop to marvel at how good the models really are.

Yea, just saw that.  Spot on...amazing the advances in some of the mseoscale modeling in the past 5 years.

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15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Amazing how that line in the last 20 minutes has curved around to look like the HRRR orientation.  Sometimes we have to stop to marvel at how good the models really are.

It really is amazing. We had nothing like this available just a few years ago. The RAP was unreliable and sent a lot of false signals for snow and severe. The hrrr has proven to be incredibly accurate inside of 10 hours. It has its faults just like all NWP models but we've never had anything close to the level of the hrrr for short term stuff until recently. 

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1 hour ago, MiddleRvrwx said:

Old wooden ship that half sunk in Curtis Creek (near the AA/Balt. City line) is on fire due to a lightning strike.

From what I was told, fire department is there, but they can't do much from the shoreline.

Update: Fireboat on scene.

 

IMG_20170406_113313.jpg

IMG_20170406_113655.jpg

Nice pics. I was listening to it on the scanner.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Hail core starting to show up on VIL to the SW. Pretty mean looking line building. Hopefully it doesn't hit a wall of stability as it comes through here. 

Spoiler: it will die as it crosses the Potomac and we will get loud thunder and mod-hvy rain. ;)

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Re bolded and underlined -- um, random?

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1258 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

VAC059-061-153-179-683-685-061730-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-170406T1730Z/
Stafford VA-Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA-City of Manassas Park VA-
Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA-
1258 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT
FOR STAFFORD...SOUTHWESTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER...AND
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...THE CENTRAL CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE
CITY OF MANASSAS...

At 1257 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles south of Warrenton to near Bealeton to 15
miles northwest of Fredericksburg to near Stafford, moving northeast
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.
!** weakened.
Locations impacted include...
Stafford, Dale City, Warrenton, Lake Ridge, Linton Hall, Montclair,
Bull Run, Triangle, Dumfries, Bealeton, Haymarket, Manassas, Sudley,
Cherry Hill, Manassas Park, Gainesville, New Baltimore, Independent
Hill, Falmouth and Nokesville.
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