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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

WTF didn't they cancel school? You should comment on the school district's facebook page! :)

i did.  they replied back to say i need to speak to mattieg for official school statements.

 

just heard thunder here at work.  i'm finding an interior room now.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Can you explain what that means? Is that just a way of saying the convection is unlikely to produce a tornado?

Elevated convection is activity that is not able to 'root' at the surface, and largely does not produced severe weather.  It can produce prolific lightning and rain, but that's about it.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Elevated convection is activity that is not able to 'root' at the surface, and largely does not produced severe weather.  It can produce prolific lightning and rain, but that's about it.

    EJ said it right.     The parcels being lifted are originating from a level well above the surface, since the surface is too cool.   In the midwest, these storms can still produce large hail, but you need steep lapse rates aloft for that, and we rarely see those out here.

 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Can you explain what that means? Is that just a way of saying the convection is unlikely to produce a tornado?

pretty much. elevated and linear storms are tornado killers. you want surface based storms and discrete cells for anything worth while to happen. doesn't mean we can't get a decent T&L, maybe some hail, and gusty winds. But any spinny things happening aren't looking good for now. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty easy to track where the unstable air is right now. My yard is obviously still in the stable sector. Looks like some cells with T&L will be crossing the potomac into SoMD shortly. 

I'm looking at the GOES16 sat images and I think it is easy to see on that where it is too.  If this current batch gets out soon there could be some peeks of sun.  you can see some clearing to the SW

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I highly doubt we get much if any breaks in the clouds. We don't really need it anyways. Dynamics are already baked in. We need luck more than sun. 

 

        We don't need it for thunderstorms, but for anything surfaced-based and potentially severe, every degree we can heat will help.

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