Bob Chill Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 The RLX radar loop is pretty sick. The line has outflow going now but looked like a lot of hail before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Charleston WV (KRLX) radar is on steroids right now, the activity is not as strong as the colors on my GR2Analyst, I checked it from Jackson KY, Blacksburg VA, and Wilmington OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: Charleston WV (KRLX) radar is on steroids right now, the activity is not as strong as the colors on my GR2Analyst, I checked it from Jackson KY, Blacksburg VA, and Wilmington OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Looking at the evening guidance, the timing has definitely slowed down which makes this a more intriguing event for much of the area. Both NAM and RAP/HRRR bring 1000+ sfc cape into our area by midday. The shear gets weaker as we go into the afternoon due to the sfc winds veering, but there looks to be a window (perhaps between 11AM and 2PM) when instability and shear align. The fail mechanism would be that both the NAM nest and HRRR show a lot of convection through the area during the early morning hours (2 rounds in some HRRR solutions), and while those solutions verbatim clear us out quickly behind that activity, we've all seen svr days here bust due to morning rain/convection reinforcing the wedge and preventing heating. Thunder with widespread heavy rainfall seems like a fairly good probability during the early hours; whether there is a SVR event behind that remains to be seen but is not a total longshot either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Dont look now but storms are heading for DCA https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Not going to do a 3am deep dive, but the severe parameters on the 6z HRRR are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 I just went through and did a thorough local forecast... a bit better confidence in today's storm potential, mainly between 10am-2pm. The lack of overnight precip is helping, and it does look a tad slower compared to what I was looking at 24 hours ago. Here's hoping some of us get something decent today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I woke up randomly (after dreaming about being thrown in jail for storm chasing with an expired license) and checked the SPC. Not bad. Maybe there's a chance up our way lol. Back to sleep. You will get flattened by severe storms. Sleep in the basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0458.html Mesoscale Discussion 0458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017 Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Carolina into central and eastern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060959Z - 061130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk will gradually increase across central and eastern portions of North Carolina and Virginia over the next few hours, which may require watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows some increase in both coverage and intensity of convection across central North Carolina. This is occurring in response to strengthening ascent pivoting north-northeastward across the Carolinas and Virginia as mid-level short-wave troughing has rounded the base of the Midwestern low and is now shifting rapidly toward the mid-Atlantic region. The boundary-layer airmass across the NC/VA area remains cool/saturated and slightly stable, with temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. However, with focused ascent near and just ahead of the surface front yielding gradual cooling aloft, steady weakening of the low-level inversion is expected to result in near moist-adiabatic low-level profiles -- i.e. sufficient for storms to eventually become at least near surface-based. Above the lower troposphere, mid-level cooling continues to gradually steepen lapse rates, with the overall effect trending toward a thermodynamic environment sufficient for vigorous storms. Presuming storms can become near surface-based, severe risk -- including potential for a tornado or two -- will become increasingly likely, as currently observed southeasterly surface winds veer and increase rapidly with height, supportive of updraft rotation. While the degree of risk remains a bit conditional/uncertain due to the currently stable boundary layer, risk appears great enough to warrant consideration of watch issuance over the next 1-2 hours. ..Goss.. 04/06/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 enhanced a little bit closer to DC but still best spots are south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 09z HRRR brings up a big slug of steady moderate/heavy rain ahead of any storms that might kill instability. Still gets some cellular stuff/linear stuff after that but best stuff is still down in the ENH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 09z HRRR brings up a big slug of steady moderate/heavy rain ahead of any storms that might kill instability. Still gets some cellular stuff/linear stuff after that but best stuff is still down in the ENH. This is an odd situation where the rain doesn't actually hurt us all that much because we aren't currently very unstable. The storm is advecting the unstable air this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: This is an odd situation where the rain doesn't actually hurt us all that much because we aren't currently very unstable. The storm is advecting the unstable air this way. Good point. I'm too scarred from events past where earlier rain killed us I'm still not sold that places N of DC get anything substantially severe out of this - will be interesting to see how this all evolves. See there's a new TOR watch south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 Fog and 48 at home. I'll get gusty showers today Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Fog and 48 at home. I'll get gusty showers today Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk aka "Mid-Atlantic Severe" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 10z HRRR brings a very robust line through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: 10z HRRR brings a very robust line through. After midday as well. But this IS the DMV area so lol......anyway nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 First batch of storms I assume is bringing up the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 One good thing is that for the most part, we aren't leafed-out yet. And of course, it always requires a special event to get widespread severe in the DC area. This doesn't appear it, even though it is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 30 minutes ago, mattie g said: aka "Mid-Atlantic Severe" ha, pretty much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 So I gather this "line" is it for us then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 I was waiting for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 And the thunder rolls........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 at least some of you will get some T&L out of this. I'm jelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 And there's the first T&L. And, it's like chilly outside.......53 attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 It wouldn't surprise me if there was no second round later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Wife called to say thunder at home.....with the kids out at the bus stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Just now, H2O said: Wife called to say thunder at home.....with the kids out at the bus stop. WTF didn't they cancel school? You should comment on the school district's facebook page! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.