Eskimo Joe Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Stick a fork in tomorrow...not even God could salvage this event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 thanks for the input, EJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 I'm too preoccupied with the south severe weather to pay much attention up here. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm too preoccupied with the south severe weather to pay much attention up here. lol. Is Ian chasing this spring? His photos are always amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Morning AFD from LWX arm air advection precipitation to the north of the warm front expected to begin across the SW areas by this evening and then spread across much of the area overnight. Current timing of initial precipitation shield brings it into KCHO 6-8 PM, KDCA/KIAD 9-11 pm, and KBWI 10 PM-12 AM. Elevated instability to the north of the warm front suggest a slight chance for non- severe thunderstorms with this initial activity. Upper-level trough with 100 kt jet max becomes negatively tilted late tonight inducing cyclogenesis on the lee of the Appalachians. Rapid deepening expected by early morning with wind field increasing substantially over the area. Further...while only modest instability is expected (~500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north Central VA)...impressive shear profiles suggest the potential for strong-to- severe thunderstorms despite poor timing. Some questions remain with regard to whether heightened threats can materialize...since it is unclear when/if/where convection can become surface-based over our area (best chance for surface-based convection and significant severe continues to be just to our south). Forecast soundings continue to indicate a stable layer...which keeps convection slightly elevated...especially near the Chesapeake Bay where water temperatures are relatively cool. Having said that...rapid deepening of surface low and strength of wind field suggest the potential is certainly there for severe storms along and east of the Blue Ridge from early morning through early/mid- afternoon Thursday...before surface low lifts to the northeast. If convection can become surface based...all threats would be possible...including tornadoes...as backed low-level flow near warm front produces strong low-level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Is Ian chasing this spring? His photos are always amazing. Myself, Ian, and James (wxmeddler) will be out chasing this year. Planning on being on the road May 20-June 4, which gives us the possible chase days of May 21-June 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 06z NAM from 12z to 18z shows at least a risk of everything severe (tor/large hail/damaging winds) per teh soundings around the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: The 6z 3km NAM takes the best activity to our south and east (of DC). Looks to really slam areas from like Charles County, MD down to the NC/VA border. It does however show some trailing convection after that line passes. That follow-up activity goes over the DC area - I'd assume that would be weaker or elevated convection tho. Parameters still aren't very good at all locally. We seem to just missing this one. If nothing else I'll hope this is a good sign for our later season severe wx chances. It is a trippy run. You have the leftovers from the storms in the OV/SE going through or near us in the early morning, then storms fire again around 11am but just miss DC to the south, and then another line fires in mid-afternoon in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 I like 12z NAM for tomorrow based off soundings from 12z to 18z... decent SRH at DCA at 18z suggests TOR threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Euro now shows a precip max stripe just west of 95 now between 12-18z. Much lower amounts in SoMD than previous runs. Probably a couple taining lines setting up somewhere during the strong southerly flow before winds veer westerly. Wind field associated with the sub 990 LP in PA is more impressive. Widespread 35-45mph gusts from the citites/burbs and east around 18z (westerly). Friday should howl pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 12z 3km NAM has some fun around 3 am with a broken line of storms moving in (sup in northern Fauquier county?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z 3km NAM has some fun around 3 am with a broken line of storms moving in (sup in northern Fauquier county?) The 12z is much more aggressive than 6z. The unstable air surges much further north this time, and the mid-morning line is correspondingly further north. Best parameters still a bit south of DC, but we are much closer to the game. edit for images (top is 6z, bottom 12z), not the same hour, but the same period in the evolution of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 I know its not for our area... but we might as well keep our eye to our S and SW for this afternoon... and look what we have here Mesoscale Discussion 0440 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017 Areas affected...Portions of AL/GA/SC Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 051443Z - 051645Z SUMMARY...Portions of the states of AL/GA/SC are being considered for an Outlook upgrade -- though the details are still being analyzed. A very notable dry bias is apparent in the latest model guidance, and observational data and previous model runs are being heavily referenced in Outlook preparation. DISCUSSION...GPS PW data are exhibiting a low bias by at least 0.5 inch from parts of AL into GA, which has influenced initialization of the latest numerical weather prediction guidance. Per coordination with the Weather Prediction Center, it appears that related initialization is causing substantial dry biases in model guidance -- extended through the Day 1 forecast period. With an inland influx of rich moisture feeding ongoing intense supercells in southern AL (with dewpoints into the middle 70s), and the around-16.6-g/kg mean mixing ratio per LIX 12Z sounding, and around 1.5-inch PW per Atlanta and Birmingham 12Z soundings, it is evident that rich moisture and related strong buoyancy does indeed extend inland. As such, observational data and previous model runs will play a major role in the consideration for a High Risk upgrade, as the dry bias has influenced the latest model guidance. While an Outlook upgrade is possible, it is not certain. ..Cohen/Marsh/Hart.. 04/05/2017 ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Ugh, no one is discussion tomorrow's threat in the SE forum because, well, priorities. So given my limited severe knowledge, thoughts on the threat for SE VA would be appreciated (or if anyone knows of any good blogs other than DT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: Is Ian chasing this spring? His photos are always amazing. Mark beat me to the answer. yes. 1 hour ago, Ellinwood said: Myself, Ian, and James (wxmeddler) will be out chasing this year. Planning on being on the road May 20-June 4, which gives us the possible chase days of May 21-June 3. 27 minutes ago, yoda said: horrible graphic. very misleading. SPC clearly says possible. Brad's tweet suggests otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Ellinwood said: Myself, Ian, and James (wxmeddler) will be out chasing this year. Planning on being on the road May 20-June 4, which gives us the possible chase days of May 21-June 3. I'll catch both ends of your trip, heading to CO on May 22 and returning June 4 haha. Hoping to see/find something, although won't be technically 'chasing'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 The GFS looks better as well compared to prior runs. Maybe we improve in closing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: What's better about it? Supercell composite parameter numbers a tad better. Nothing ground breaking still. Still think best place is south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 High Risk on the 1630 OTLK... ENH moved to NC/VA border... SLGT risk to S VA... marginal risk just south of DCA TE storm in GA right now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Man, I just love the new GOES images. Should look cool around here tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 From 1630 OTLK disco Furthermore, confidence has increased that substantial severe risk including tornado potential will develop through parts of the Mid-Atlantic region into the overnight hours amid strong low-level and deep shear, and a moistening boundary layer. As a result, severe probabilities have been increased across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: From 1630 OTLK disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Thank you Mappy for the map 1730 Day 2 OTLK update should be fun (hopefully) in about 30-40 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 Of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Man, I just love the new GOES images. Should look cool around here tomorrow AM. the infrared layer is pretty sweet, you can see where the more intense cells are going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1730z no cigar for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 Updated Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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