southmdwatcher Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Wow... that does look kind of scary... but we shall see Darn, that just means I have to look south for my thunderstorm/tornado versus looking towards the west side of LaPlata/Quantico from the river. This whole set up for the next two days really has potential over populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Do you have a link to your outbreak maps? Would love to see them. Sure! http://www.ustornadoes.com/2017/01/05/the-largest-tornado-outbreaks-of-2017/ I've made outbreak maps for 2016 and 2015 as well. Check the whole site out. There are a couple great articles about the 1974 outbreak (43rd anniversary yesterday/today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea, I need to learn to wait a week or so for the reports to come in. Your maps on Twitter are total amaze balls...our director and ops team follows your / US Tornadoes maps vicariously. Yeah, it usually takes a few days for stuff to make it onto SPC, or even finalized for that matter. I've made prelim maps only to have to update days later because the numbers keep changing. Sunday's severe weather is especially tough due to location. Probably a lot of touchdowns that were brief, caused some damage but weren't seen by anyone due to trees, etc. Takes time to get out there, survey and have data come back that can be used to verify the risk SPC put out. Thank you for the kind words! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 4/27/11 analogs for this event are silly...almost no comparison. If anything, the 4/15 - 4/16/11 event is "closer": http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110415 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 4/27/11 analogs for this event are silly...almost no comparison. If anything, the 4/15 - 4/16/11 event is "closer": http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110415 That event had a violent tornado in Bertie County NC where 11 were killed... classic NC tornado event... PDS TOR watchbox reached pretty close to our region too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 4/27/11 analogs for this event are silly...almost no comparison. If anything, the 4/15 - 4/16/11 event is "closer": http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110415 Shift everything east by 200-250 miles and it's not a terrible analog, at least at the surface. Here's a link to the surface analysis.http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/sfc/sfc_archive_maps.php?arcdate=04/16/2011&selmap=2011041603&maptype=namussfc Just advance in time to see how it evolves. FWIW, the surface low with this event is likely to be closer to the OH/IN state line as opposed to Chicago this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I've paid more attention to severe outside of mby this season (lol) and I think that the SPC has done pretty well aside from that surprise outbreak that happened in the upper midwest earlier this year. If I remember correctly, you don't necessarily need numerous long track EF3+ for a high risk to verify. Also, the latest high risk was pretty narrowly tailored and sure enough, most of the TORs happened in that zone. YES. US Tornadoes is awesome. One of the best kept secrets in the wx world IMO, despite the 45k followers. We joke...but that area is legit when it comes to severe wx. The next few days will be interesting. First down south and then up here. This has been a pretty long duration period of severe threats across the country. Interesting to see... I wouldn't be surprised to see the high risk verify. Sure, it's not like some high risks (see April 2011) outbreaks, but there were a couple intense tornadoes in that PDS watch Sunday (see Jena, LA tornado). Thanks for frequenting ustornadoes! This will be it's sixth severe season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Wasn't the 4/15/11 outbreak the only time that southern VA has ever been in a high risk area? EDIT: wait, that was 4/16/11, the day after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 This looks fun - 18z NAM h5 from 12z to 18z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, Tater Tot said: Wasn't the 4/15/11 outbreak the only time that southern VA has ever been in a high risk area? EDIT: wait, that was 4/16/11, the day after? 4/16/11 on the 1630 and 2000 outlooks... PDS TOR watch was issued as well for VA/NC, but did not include any LWX counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 Fun fact for anyone who doesn't know: tornado watches issued within an area of high risk will always be PDS watches. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 What really hurts is that we've had several multi-day events this year and none of them have translated this far north. Season is looking really pathetic for us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, mappy said: Fun fact for anyone who doesn't know: tornado watches issued within an area of high risk will always be PDS watches. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Except for the one that happened on Sunday in the high risk area. That was not a PDS watch if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 Except for the one that happened on Sunday in the high risk area. That was not a PDS watch if I remember correctly. There was a watch issued just prior to the upgrade that was not PDS. Then one issued afterwards that was. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 Where can I get the zoomed in SPC outlooks again?Link is saved at work Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: There was a watch issued just prior to the upgrade that was not PDS. Then one issued afterwards that was. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0110.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Where can I get the zoomed in SPC outlooks again? Found it! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: YASSSSSSSS Mappy comes through! Google is a beautiful thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 30 percent shaded (enhanced risk) is really close then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 I haven't been scared of marauding discreet thunderstorms since June 2, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think we've had a good season so far. Maybe not in my backyard, but I think we've had at least two legit days and we're nowhere close to peak svr climo for the region. Seems like we've been prerty light with t storms in general the last 3 years or so. Partly because of enso but also just typical ups and downs. Wouldn't surprise me if we rock and roll this spring. Not up to EJ's standards of course but active enough to be fun. More importantly...we're probably due for tropical impact. We've had some memorable events with a gulf landfall that gets absorbed into SW flow. My standards are a cat 5 up the bay and a left turn at point lookout though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Seems like we've been prerty light with t storms in general the last 3 years or so. Partly because of enso but also just typical ups and downs. Wouldn't surprise me if we rock and roll this spring. Not up to EJ's standards of course but active enough to be fun. More importantly...we're probably due for tropical impact. We've had some memorable events with a gulf landfall that gets absorbed into SW flow. My standards are a cat 5 up the bay and a left turn at point lookout though. Lol Heh, Charlottesville has already had 2 hail events this year in different parts of the City/surrounding County. So, it's been pretty "active" so far this spring with the meat of the season upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I Googled the hell out of it and didn't find it. Clearly, I need to step up my game. For the bolded, I agree. I think last season was pretty good though. There was a big time overnight wind event in DC proper and I think there were a couple of good severe region wide events, but the two preceding years weren't that great. As for tropical--don't get me started. The EC has been in an incredible stretch of relatively quiet/non-landfalling *major* systems. Look no further than Matthew last season after a pattern that was about as ripe as you could get for EC action lol. I'm actually pretty worried with how people would handle a true landfalling major after such a period. That said, I'm ready to track tropical in the same way winter weenies dream of tracking the big daddy blizzards lol. Do people not remember Sandy. I think everyone would agree that was a major storm but not in the technical sense(wasn't cat 3 or above when it got up this way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Do people not remember Sandy. I think everyone would agree that was a major storm but not in the technical sense(wasn't cat 3 or above when it got up this way). Sandy was weak sauce outside of the coastal areas and Garrett County...essentially 36 hours of a breezy, cold rain. No worse than a Nor'Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Sweet, so now Sandy was a weak sauce storm for most of us. Good to know...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think he was talking about the broader impact lol. Sandy was a top 5-10 meteorological event on the east coast since 1900 IMO. Incredibly anomalous upper level pattern, extremely large storm, and that left turn that put the most populated city in the nation in the bullseye. I can't even imagine how much worse it would have been if this were a category or two higher (though if it were purely tropical there would have been a trade off yada yada) Sandy sucked. It's a backyard sport and I think I had like 6 leaves and a twig to clean up. We've had much better high wind events in the piedmont during the winter in the last 4 years. We had a couple of remnant events in the last 10 years that were way worse with either torrential rain/flooding or spinny things ripping up from south. Isabel was the recent best for overall tropical experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: Sweet, so now Sandy was a weak sauce storm for most of us. Good to know...... For everyone west of 95 it was. I'm not saying the storm wasn't major because it was destructive as hell for areas east and north. It ranks pretty low on the list for my yard though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 I completely forget how it was for the Mid-Atlantic but up my way Irene was a pretty good event. During Irene I was up in New York City at the time awaiting to get on my cruise which was delayed by a day. It was freaky driving down broadway the day after with literally no cars on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 While the SPC forecast is plausible, I think areas north of Fredericksburg are showing more of a "best case" scenario in getting severe due to the uncertainty in the forecast. There's a few different ways for all of this to play out over the course of Thursday. I would drop areas north of Fredericksburg down a category and save the potential for a higher-end forecast update for Day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 The 6z 3km NAM takes the best activity to our south and east (of DC). Looks to really slam areas from like Charles County, MD down to the NC/VA border. It does however show some trailing convection after that line passes. That follow-up activity goes over the DC area - I'd assume that would be weaker or elevated convection tho. Parameters still aren't very good at all locally. We seem to just missing this one. If nothing else I'll hope this is a good sign for our later season severe wx chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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