2017 Severe Thread

[Don Cherry's Jacket]

33 minutes ago, yoda said:

From LWX morning HWO:

 

 

This seems later than originally forecast.  I was seeing reports of severe thunder from dawn through midday, now it seems to be severe more towards midday.   

[ErinInTheSky]

NAM SCP/STP values are better for us today. May be trending in the right direction.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, supernovasky said:

NAM SCP/STP values are better for us today. May be trending in the right direction.

NAM gonna NAM like it always does.  This is a hail mary...we need GFS/EURO to trend better and that isn't looking likely.

[Bob Chill]

0z euro focuses the best stuff over SoMD. Pretty good wind on the heels overnight thurs into friday. Gusts in the 40's pretty much everywhere. 

[Eskimo Joe]

42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

0z euro focuses the best stuff over SoMD. Pretty good wind on the heels overnight thurs into friday. Gusts in the 40's pretty much everywhere. 

We'll probably be watching another wedge in La Plata again.

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We'll probably be watching another wedge in La Plata again.

You joke...and yet this is probably true. One of the areas mini tornado alleys. I could go for a long track EF-0 across moco again. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

You joke...and yet this is probably true. One of the areas mini tornado alleys. I could go for a long track EF-0 across moco again. 

Wedge fest or bust...another wasted potential it looks like.

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wedge fest or bust...another wasted potential it looks like.

It's the rare moment when you and I are equally bearish on an event. I'm sure we'll get some heavy rain and thundershowers but probably limited severe stuff DC north. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It's the rare moment when you and I are equally bearish on an event. I'm sure we'll get some heavy rain and thundershowers but probably limited severe stuff DC north. 

Ever since the Derecho, we haven't had a decent severe weather or flooding event.  It stinks to high heavens.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Ever since the Derecho, we haven't had a decent severe weather or flooding event.  It stinks to high heavens.

I'm mostly indifferent on flooding - but something like June 2006 is exciting (but destructive) regardless. 

[Kmlwx]

I will however say that the orientation of the risk area is reminiscent on a few other pretty active days in our area. Obviously this doesn't mean much but that tilt of NW to SE of the risk area we have seen before in some higher end risk events. 

[southmdwatcher]

The "just" issued day 2 outlook from SPC expanded the moderate risk westward and north, back into central Alabama and north to the TN border of AL/GA. maybe we get a larger event if this is depicting a slightly slower solution. This was a Significant expansion of the moderate risk over the SE Forum...

[yoda]

19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I will however say that the orientation of the risk area is reminiscent on a few other pretty active days in our area. Obviously this doesn't mean much but that tilt of NW to SE of the risk area we have seen before in some higher end risk events. 

Probably just because I was watching TWC Tornado 360 last night and the episode was about the April 27th 2011 event in Tuscaloosa, but we can see tors early in the morning.  Remember, during that event/system, we had tor warnings from 1am on till 8 or 9am or so.  Not saying we are going to get that type of event again, but just a quick reminder that we can indeed see tors here at night

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, southmdwatcher said:

The "just" issued day 2 outlook from SPC expanded the moderate risk westward and north, back into central Alabama and north to the TN border of AL/GA. maybe we get a larger event if this is depicting a slightly slower solution.

Is it just me, or are the MOD/HIGH risks busting horrible from start to finish this year?  Maybe my standards are too high, but I'm not seeing the big numbers of storm reports like in years past. 

 

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm mostly indifferent on flooding - but something like June 2006 is exciting (but destructive) regardless. 

It's been too long since we've had a true gully washer like that.  The rivers need a huge flush...fishing has been stinko the past 2 years.

[southmdwatcher]

The Atlanta area could be ground zero for tomorrow afternoon and there is a good chance an area in that zone could possibly be upgraded to High Risk later, given the trajectories of the storms, that would allow for DC and south to be in path for the storms that form in the "bullseye" area tomorrow whatever may be the crosshairs for the Thursday early morning events. I hate being in the LaPlata zone for an event such as this.

[yoda]

Just for ref: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_2011042728

[George BM]

Not saying it's worth much at all but.......

Can someone confirm that this is what the Euro shows?

[Kmlwx]

I sound like a broken record - I do think we'll get gusty storms...

My expectation for a very robust severe event is low, however. I wonder what Ian is thinking. I haven't checked Twitter today. 

We'll get storms...but I don't think we'll get that 30% hatching into DC proper without significantly better timing. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Just for ref: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_2011042728

Get out of my head!  I was just thinking that, but the 2011 event had the low much further west so everyone go well into the warm section.  Still, sub 100 low and 90kt+ jet stream could do some fun things.

[WxReese]

53 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably just because I was watching TWC Tornado 360 last night and the episode was about the April 27th 2011 event in Tuscaloosa, but we can see tors early in the morning.  Remember, during that event/system, we had tor warnings from 1am on till 8 or 9am or so.  Not saying we are going to get that type of event again, but just a quick reminder that we can indeed see tors here at night

Of course, but DPs were in the upper 50s to lower 60s the day before the event here in Virginia.

 

We're going to have DPs near 50 tomorrow afternoon.

Color me MAJORLY skeptical of this event this far north. We're going to be relying on a warm front to lift moisture our way; how often does that seem to work out for us? Also, I haven't seen many people mention the models "jumping" the low from Ohio to over Baltimore(ish) Thursday morning as the energy at 500 swings in around the base of the trough. That's going to SERIOUSLY F up the warm sector around here, if it even gets this far north. I thought yesterday when I looked at it (was on vacation last week) that SE VA/NE NC were places to be once again and points SW of there. 

Also, I'm very interested in seeing how far north the storms get in Alabama and Georgia tomorrow afternoon. I worked there, Columbus, GA, for over 4 years (including the April 4/5, 15/16, 27th outbreaks in 2011) and many others. The severe events that relied on the warm front (DPs above 65) advancing north from the Gulf rarely made it north of I-20, if that. Most of the time, it was near Eufaula/Dothan/Albany before it got "stuck". All those events are playing in my mind about this one for some reason... 

[WxReese]

Also, the top analog the past 2 days from CIPS is 0Z March 29, 2009. Here are the storm reports from that day: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20090328

 

The following day had reports (mainly hail) around Philly: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20090328

[Eskimo Joe]

This afternoon's EURO isn't terrible

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, WxReese said:

Also, the top analog the past 2 days from CIPS is 0Z March 29, 2009. Here are the storm reports from that day: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20090328

 

The following day had reports (mainly hail) around Philly: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20090328

That storm produced an EF-1 tornado in Lancaster County, PA the next day which injured several people.  Cold air aloft and good dynamics allowed numerous large half reports (1.25" or greater) from DC to NYC.  My in-laws had their siding busted apart in Lancaster that day from 1.5" hail.  Fun day.

[Bob Chill]

Euro moved the narrow stripe of heavy rain west but still just east of 95. Last 3 runs have been consistent with a training line setting up somewhere nearby. Also showing 50+ knot gusts at the surface through SoMD and up the bay between 12-18z on thurs. 

[Kmlwx]

I'm out until I'm in. 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This afternoon's EURO isn't terrible

 

 

Wow... that does look kind of scary... but we shall see

[mappy]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

ha! mr map and i both played baseball/softball in our years growing up (even as adults on a co-ed team). was only a matter of time before we got her to try it out. She has a decent arm for a 4yr old. 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is it just me, or are the MOD/HIGH risks busting horrible from start to finish this year?  Maybe my standards are too high, but I'm not seeing the big numbers of storm reports like in years past. 

They are. From what I've seen, most Mod/High have checked out fine afterwards. Going to be a few days before we see if Sunday's high risk worked out or not, since so few reports on SPC. But I can tell you that I've made four outbreak maps so far (not including 4/2-4/3). I didnt make the fourth last year until mid-April. Tomorrow looks like another outbreak. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Wow... that does look kind of scary... but we shall see

The surface and mid level panels show the biggest threat of storms/heavy rain/wind to the east though. Vorticity looks good but the main action is out in front of the SLP. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, mappy said:

ha! mr map and i both played baseball/softball in our years growing up (even as adults on a co-ed team). was only a matter of time before we got her to try it out. She has a decent arm for a 4yr old. 

They are. From what I've seen, most Mod/High have checked out fine afterwards. Going to be a few days before we see if Sunday's high risk worked out or not, since so few reports on SPC. But I can tell you that I've made four outbreak maps so far (not including 4/2-4/3). I didnt make the fourth last year until mid-April. Tomorrow looks like another outbreak. 

 

Do you have a link to your outbreak maps? Would love to see them. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, mappy said:

ha! mr map and i both played baseball/softball in our years growing up (even as adults on a co-ed team). was only a matter of time before we got her to try it out. She has a decent arm for a 4yr old. 

They are. From what I've seen, most Mod/High have checked out fine afterwards. Going to be a few days before we see if Sunday's high risk worked out or not, since so few reports on SPC. But I can tell you that I've made four outbreak maps so far (not including 4/2-4/3). I didnt make the fourth last year until mid-April. Tomorrow looks like another outbreak. 

Yea, I need to learn to wait a week or so for the reports to come in.  Your maps on Twitter are total amaze balls...our director and ops team follows your / US Tornadoes maps vicariously.