Kmlwx Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 1 minute ago, George BM said: I'm also wondering about any CAD Thursday. NAM seems to have some CAD during the morning. That would be awful...especially since 1) CAD is slow to erode and 2) it's already coming in earlier than ideal. I smell a meh coming unless we can get some Bob magic. I'm not in at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That would be awful...especially since 1) CAD is slow to erode and 2) it's already coming in earlier than ideal. I smell a meh coming unless we can get some Bob magic. I'm not in at this time. Not always... if the WF comes through CAD will be eroded quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Not always... if the WF comes through CAD will be eroded quickly It may not be that the WF blasts through, but it may set up right across the DC metro area and enhance the SVR threat along and especially just southeast of it. The low-level winds will be backed in a big way, such that even though the 500 flow is southerly, you might still have a lot of low-level shear. And you have a 50 kt LLJ in place. As has been noted, the timing is far from ideal, but this still has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Not always... if the WF comes through CAD will be eroded quickly You're still then left with timing issues. And I haven't even looked at cloud cover potential for Thur morning which would be another wild card that tends to screw us over. Your optimism is always appreciated. The WxWatcher007 scale needs to be brought out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 I could see this being an event where the timing sucks but some mini sups put down a spinny or two in the favored areas. I don't think this will be a moderate or anything of that nature. Naturally, MBY will probably miss out. Besides...I'll be at work anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: It may not be that the WF blasts through, but it may set up right across the DC metro area and enhance the SVR threat along and especially just southeast of it. The low-level winds will be backed in a big way, such that even though the 500 flow is southerly, you might still have a lot of low-level shear. And you have a 50 kt LLJ in place. As has been noted, the timing is far from ideal, but this still has a chance. Very interesting... in which direction would the low level winds be backed? Westerly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 The 12z NAM on the Nexlab site gets a nose of good parameters as close as Southern Maryland but no cigar for the rest of us. Hope to trend that better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The 12z NAM on the Nexlab site gets a nose of good parameters as close as Southern Maryland but no cigar for the rest of us. Hope to trend that better. What did you think of high risk's post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, yoda said: Very interesting... in which direction would the low level winds be backed? Westerly? What I'm saying is that in terms of having the winds veering with height that you need for supercells, we're almost always screwed here (and same is true for most areas) when the winds in the mid levels are southerly, since the sfc winds are southerly, and you lose directional shear. But you can work with mid-level southerlies IF the low-level winds are backed (in a direction more counterclockwise from the mid levels), and the 12z NAM shows southeast low-level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The 12z NAM on the Nexlab site gets a nose of good parameters as close as Southern Maryland but no cigar for the rest of us. Hope to trend that better. yeah, right now the NAM has the warm front only getting to Route 50, and lead showers destroying any chance of destabilizing. To be clear, I'm not optimistic about the chances, but I do see a way it can work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, high risk said: yeah, right now the NAM has the warm front only getting to Route 50, and lead showers destroying any chance of destabilizing. To be clear, I'm not optimistic about the chances, but I do see a way it can work out. Timing is a problem with like 90% of our chances so I pretty much just roll with the punches. I'm not very good at severe anyways other than seeing a general setup that can do some fun things. Which I think we have on tap. We are lacking in the timing dept but the upper levels definitely point to an active period regardless. I'll take it. It's a pretty good ULL position and plenty of vorticity overhead. LLJ support is decent too. There will be "embedded fun" in the mix Thursday. I'd be happy with some prolific CG and heavy downpours. A fair number of us should see that type of action at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, high risk said: What I'm saying is that in terms of having the winds veering with height that you need for supercells, we're almost always screwed here (and same is true for most areas) when the winds in the mid levels are southerly, since the sfc winds are southerly, and you lose directional shear. But you can work with mid-level southerlies IF the low-level winds are backed (in a direction more counterclockwise from the mid levels), and the 12z NAM shows southeast low-level flow. Ah okay... thanks for explaining. I was a little bit confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 12z GFS is intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS is intriguing Indeed. Has a 987mb low in Gettysburg at 18z Thurs...at least that would put an end to the drought in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Indeed. Has a 987mb low in Gettysburg at 18z Thurs...at least that would put an end to the drought in these parts. I would also assume it is good for some severe with the SLP being that close, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I would also assume it is good for some severe with the SLP being that close, no? You'd think, but this is the Mid Atlantic...we somehow manage to muff these things up in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Timing is a problem with like 90% of our chances so I pretty much just roll with the punches. I'm not very good at severe anyways other than seeing a general setup that can do some fun things. Which I think we have on tap. We are lacking in the timing dept but the upper levels definitely point to an active period regardless. I'll take it. It's a pretty good ULL position and plenty of vorticity overhead. LLJ support is decent too. There will be "embedded fun" in the mix Thursday. I'd be happy with some prolific CG and heavy downpours. A fair number of us should see that type of action at least. We could probably manage with a storm period of 16z-18z as long as we can instability. I'm not sure if anything before 14 or 15z will be late enough to be a ton of fun. But yes, I'd say storminess is a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, yoda said: I would also assume it is good for some severe with the SLP being that close, no? absolutely! It would get most of the area into the warm sector. The wind profile might be unidirectional, with better low level shear along the Mason/Dixon line, but I'd rather get the instability in place and worry about the shear later. I'm glad I'll be back for this; heading to Boulder today where I'll get a final taste of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You'd think, but this is the Mid Atlantic...we somehow manage to muff these things up in the end. I have learned through the years living in this area that if you get your hopes up high, you will lose your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 1 minute ago, George BM said: I have learned through the years living in this area that if you get your hopes up high, you will lose your mind. Yea, I've learned never to jump in with both feet until 10am - noon the day of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Euro winds up the storm too...eventually becoming a 978 low over the finger lakes by Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Day 3 hatching is certainly not that common in our region. DC proper is only in the slight but 30% probs are not far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Certainly looks like SEVA and maybe central VA will be the places to be for this one. Models continue to be pretty paltry with our composite parameters. Looks stormy at least...but a robust severe day would be fun. Maybe later into the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 I'm not impressed at all by the SCP, but I'll be happy with a few thunderstorms myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I'm not impressed at all by the SCP, but I'll be happy with a few thunderstorms myself. If I didn't have to work I'd consider making a drive closer to the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Was hoping to see this trend better...Looks like DC will be on the outside looking in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 LWX likes it; morning AFD diso: Much of Wednesday expected to be quiet...as high pressure remains over the area. Things begin to change late Wednesday as low pressure shifts toward the area. Warm air advection precipitation ahead of the main system expected to begin by evening and continue through the overnight. Severe potential increases across the SW overnight as wind field strengthens substantially due to cyclogenesis across the Appalachians coincident with large area of lift near the nose of a 100 kt jet. Severe threat then spreads into the rest of the area from Thursday morning through midday Thursday. While instability is expected to be rather modest (generally 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE), strongly veering wind profiles (especially at the lowest levels) will create rather strong kinematics and the potential for supercell thunderstorms. Furthermore...backed surface winds will contribute to rather large low-level shear...with some potential for tornadoes. Best chance for enhanced severe expected across central VA...where boundary layer moistening will be greatest. Current SPC Day 2 outlook highlights the SW portion of the area in a marginal risk for storms late Wednesday and then an Enhanced/Slight for Day 3 (Thursday) along and east of the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 hoping for a bust. kiddo has her first tee-ball practice thursday at 6pm. if it's gonna rain/storm, i am okay with it being earlier in the day, so they can get a practice in, even if it muddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 12z NAM at 18z THUR in DC has 1400 SBCAPE and near 1000 MLCAPE -- def a damaging wind profile... but 12z THUR is quite ominous even without any SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 From LWX morning HWO: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is a slight risk of severe weather during the middle of the day Thursday. South of Washington DC, there is an enhanced risk. Localized wind damage will be the primary threat. A couple of tornadoes will be possible. A Gale Warning will be possible Thursday night into Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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