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2017 Severe Thread

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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Derecho!

Derecho!

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Heckuva localized outbreak going on right now. Very impressive, hope none of these are producing too much. 

Looks like the Virginia Beach Tornado suddenly dissipated, but  it had a PDS warning and on radar looked  like a significant tornado for a good distance over a very densely populated part of Virginia Beach. 

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
Just now, Derecho! said:

Looks like the Virginia Beach Tornado suddenly dissapated, but  it had a PDS warning and on radar looked  like signficant tornado for a good distance over a very densely part of Virginia Beach. 

Hopefully not. Been scouring twitter for pics of the tornado and can't find any. Southern forum said there was a TDS at some point though. 

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
642 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0620 PM     TORNADO          3 SSE GREENBRIER        36.75N 76.18W  
03/31/2017                   CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT    
  
            TORNADO REPORTED AT CENTERVILLE TURNPIKE AND   
            APPALACHIAN. CHURCH HAS BEEN DESTROYED.   
            RELAYED BY 911. .  

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

 

no thread started for the event(sleeper) but...

1/2 the posts in this sub forum and 1/2 in the other

mayhem as usual in the eastern forums(because of all the sub forums)

 

I know people don't love fragmenting the board anymore but I think we need a severe sub topic similar to the tropics one. Severe events interest a lot of people and can cover differenr sub forums.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know people don't love fragmenting the board anymore but I think we need a severe sub topic similar to the tropics one. Severe events interest a lot of people and can cover differenr sub forums.

I think the admins should have the ability to pin threads across the forums for large events.  There can still be regional threads for impacts, but fractured ones for big events is silly.

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Derecho!

Derecho!

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

 

no thread started for the event(sleeper) but...

1/2 the posts in this sub forum and 1/2 in the other

mayhem as usual in the eastern forums(because of all the sub forums)

 

You know I started writing a post on this but deleted it before you posted this.  I loathe the subforums entirely. 

I looked and honestly couldn't figure out what parts of Virginia are supposed to be in what forum. 

The desire for subforums is 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% comprised of snow weenies who can't tolerate their eyes viewing any information or discussion of anywhere that isn't their literal backyard. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Organized severe thunderstorm development is possible across
   parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Coast
   region this coming Wednesday into Thursday...

   Amplification within the westerlies across the Pacific coast into
   the Plains by the middle of this week appears likely to shift
   eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard by next weekend.  Models
   suggest that this will support the continuing development of a broad
   deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone through the Ohio Valley into the
   Northeast.  Rapid substantive moisture return to the warm sector of
   the cyclone appears possible in the wake of a previous cyclone,
   initially along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of
   Alabama and Georgia by early Wednesday, closer to the cyclone center
   across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening, and across the Mid
   Atlantic Coast region by Thursday.  Associated destabilization in
   the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and
   strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support
   considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving
   storm clusters and discrete supercell activity.  Severe wind gusts
   and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a
   risk for large hail.  It seems probable that areas of higher severe
   probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time
   frame.
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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

Wow - I was expecting to come back from a weekend of fun to "meh" but I'm excited. Gotta hold it for several days now, though. 

I was out all day at a beer and wine (and cider) festival yesterday and have been down for the count with work and a nasty cold or flu all week. Feeling much better now!

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

The GFS doesn't look particularly robust with parameters at this range. LWX discussion was also pretty meh. We will have to wait until it gets closer to have any clarity. We generally can only go more meh when we get a long range outlook like this. 

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George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The GFS doesn't look particularly robust with parameters at this range. LWX discussion was also pretty meh. We will have to wait until it gets closer to have any clarity. We generally can only go more meh when we get a long range outlook like this. 

It also looks to be coming a bit early in the day at the moment. Details are still changing though of course.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, George BM said:

It also looks to be coming a bit early in the day at the moment. Details are still changing though of course.

One thing that tends to happen around here is that severe threats tend to speed up a bit with time. So if models prog something to sweep through around 6pm we likely would see it between 1 and 3pm etc. Hopefully we can slow it down. 

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George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

One thing that tends to happen around here is that severe threats tend to speed up a bit with time. So if models prog something to sweep through around 6pm we likely would see it between 1 and 3pm etc. Hopefully we can slow it down. 

Part of me thinks that the trend towards earlier Thursday as apposed to late Thursday may be that models have the current low pressure system over Texas trending to a further northwest track every single run. My hypothesis is that a further northwest track of the current Texas/Gulf coast storm will allow the next system (our system) to feel its "pull" and pull it out of the Rockies quicker, thus making the storm be further east by the time the piece of energy coming behind it swings around the base of the trough.

Or I'm just over-analyzing things and looking at too small a picture.

Yeah, the latter is probably it.   

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Huriken

Huriken

Posted
Posted

I believe the Euro is a little slower looking at the latest run. I'm not sure if it'll make a difference or not looking at the time stamp. Well, we are still four days away from the event, so maybe we will see some changes.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, yoda said: 

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Organized severe thunderstorm development is possible across
   parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Coast
   region this coming Wednesday into Thursday...

   Amplification within the westerlies across the Pacific coast into
   the Plains by the middle of this week appears likely to shift
   eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard by next weekend.  Models
   suggest that this will support the continuing development of a broad
   deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone through the Ohio Valley into the
   Northeast.  Rapid substantive moisture return to the warm sector of
   the cyclone appears possible in the wake of a previous cyclone,
   initially along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of
   Alabama and Georgia by early Wednesday, closer to the cyclone center
   across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening, and across the Mid
   Atlantic Coast region by Thursday.  Associated destabilization in
   the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and
   strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support
   considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving
   storm clusters and discrete supercell activity.  Severe wind gusts
   and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a
   risk for large hail.  It seems probable that areas of higher severe
   probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time
   frame.

Bigly intrigued for Thursday.  Not 'in' yet, but it's certainly the kind of setup I like to see.

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