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2017 Severe Thread

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It is time to unveil the refined WxWatcher Prediction System™

A few important notes: 

1. This is a GAMEDAY forecast system. None of that 2, 3 day+ outlook crap. We're not Oklahoma for God's sake. 

2. This is a STEP system. That means the stars (or rather posters) need to align in order for us to get to the next level. If Ellinwood is honking for wedges and YODA says that he doesn't think MUCAPE will be enough for us to rock, flag on the play people. 

3. When I say TORs, I mean TOR Warnings. I.E. when we get to third base but get stuck at the plate. When I say tornadoes, I mean the spinny cloud formations La Plata residents get up close and personal with multiple times a year.  

4. This is ONLY for the Mid-Atlantic. No one cares about Philly getting a 90mph gust or Raleigh getting volleyball hail. Many people say we don't even care about the People of the Bay, but those people are wrong and hateful. We love our Bay dwellers. 

WxWatcher Prediction System.jpg

 

Already kinda failed since i think Eskimo Joe hopped on again at the last minute. We may need to revise the scale. 

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Bodhi Cove

Bodhi Cove

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

4. This is ONLY for the Mid-Atlantic. No one cares about Philly getting a 90mph gust or Raleigh getting volleyball hail. Many people say we don't even care about the People of the Bay, but those people are wrong and hateful. We love our Bay dwellers. 

WxWatcher Prediction System.jpg

 

Awww.  :wub: Thank you. :hug:

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The Dude

The Dude

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It is time to unveil the refined WxWatcher Prediction System™

A few important notes: 

1. This is a GAMEDAY forecast system. None of that 2, 3 day+ outlook crap. We're not Oklahoma for God's sake. 

2. This is a STEP system. That means the stars (or rather posters) need to align in order for us to get to the next level. If Ellinwood is honking for wedges and YODA says that he doesn't think MUCAPE will be enough for us to rock, flag on the play people. 

3. When I say TORs, I mean TOR Warnings. I.E. when we get to third base but get stuck at the plate. When I say tornadoes, I mean the spinny cloud formations La Plata residents get up close and personal with multiple times a year.  

4. This is ONLY for the Mid-Atlantic. No one cares about Philly getting a 90mph gust or Raleigh getting volleyball hail. Many people say we don't even care about the People of the Bay, but those people are wrong and hateful. We love our Bay dwellers. 

WxWatcher Prediction System.jpg

 

:lol: Awesome!

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted

I work at SSA and actually had significant damage from this storm. A huge part of the roof ripped off my building and then smashed into windows. I believe there were even injuries. Oddly, I work in the building and did not hear anything at all. I didn't even notice the wind really howling outside either, and I feel like I was pretty intently watching the weather outside as it came in. I'm really not sure how such big damage occurred. Maybe gustier winds higher up? It was probably 100 feet off the ground.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It is time to unveil the refined WxWatcher Prediction System™

A few important notes: 

1. This is a GAMEDAY forecast system. None of that 2, 3 day+ outlook crap. We're not Oklahoma for God's sake. 

2. This is a STEP system. That means the stars (or rather posters) need to align in order for us to get to the next level. If Ellinwood is honking for wedges and YODA says that he doesn't think MUCAPE will be enough for us to rock, flag on the play people. 

3. When I say TORs, I mean TOR Warnings. I.E. when we get to third base but get stuck at the plate. When I say tornadoes, I mean the spinny cloud formations La Plata residents get up close and personal with multiple times a year.  

4. This is ONLY for the Mid-Atlantic. No one cares about Philly getting a 90mph gust or Raleigh getting volleyball hail. Many people say we don't even care about the People of the Bay, but those people are wrong and hateful. We love our Bay dwellers. 

WxWatcher Prediction System.jpg

 

:lmao:

But in step two, should mine and Ellinwoods names be switched?

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mappy

mappy

Posted
  • Author
Posted
19 hours ago, osfan24 said:

I work at SSA and actually had significant damage from this storm. A huge part of the roof ripped off my building and then smashed into windows. I believe there were even injuries. Oddly, I work in the building and did not hear anything at all. I didn't even notice the wind really howling outside either, and I feel like I was pretty intently watching the weather outside as it came in. I'm really not sure how such big damage occurred. Maybe gustier winds higher up? It was probably 100 feet off the ground.

saw that on the news, glad you are okay! sorry to hear about others being injured. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Hmmm... 1730 SPC OTLK 

...Central and eastern VA...Delmarva...eastern NC...
   Widespread clouds and precipitation are expected across the entire
   region during the first half of the day, in association with the
   warm conveyor. Forecast soundings show a low severe wind or
   brief/weak tornado threat may exist with any stronger cells mainly
   over southern areas where the storms will be surface based and able
   to interact with SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2. As this activity
   moves east, rapid cooling aloft with the shortwave trough as well as
   a dry slot should result in clearing, and a plume of steeper
   low-level lapse rates across the western Carolinas into southwest VA
   by 18-21Z. 

   The NAM model appears to be the most unstable and bullish on storm
   redevelopment near the low and cold front across VA. Storms may form
   in the warmer air and trek eastward along the low track. Veering
   winds with height will conditionally favor supercells, and presence
   of substantial SRH on the dry/moist air interface could support an
   isolated tornado risk, likely weak given marginal instability. 
   However, there are model timing differences which lend uncertainty,
   for example, the GFS and ECMWF do not show as strong of a
   redevelopment signal as the NAM. 

   A small Slight risk could be needed in later outlooks mainly across
   eastern Virginia once predictability issues with early precipitation
   and timing of the shortwave are better ascertained.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

The 3km NAM for tomorrow actually wasn't all that bad on the sim reflectivity. Will be interesting to see how the new NAM performs this severe season. 

ETA: This is for Virginia. We do get an okay looking line but the parameters suck until you're down into VA (especially SEVA). I wouldn't expect much for DC proper and north. Other than rain, that is. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
Just now, Kmlwx said:

The 3km NAM for tomorrow actually wasn't all that bad on the sim reflectivity. Will be interesting to see how the new NAM performs this severe season. 

I win and you lose tomorrow ;)

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure in the midwest will slide into western
Pennsylvania during the day Friday, with a secondary low
developing over western North Carolina and heading northeast
across our area. The two surface lows will consolidate near New
Jersey Friday evening. Aloft, the shortwave to the south of the
approaching closed low will develop a negative tilt as it slides
eastward towards us Friday, with the closed low itself then
crossing over the region overnight Friday. Both the surface and
upper level systems will move eastward away from the region
during the day Saturday.

The negatively tilted shortwave will promote signifcant rainfall
and perhaps a little embedded convection Friday morning. At the
very least, some periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain
look likely given the ample moisture flow from the south and
good forcing, and soundings also suggest some instability above
the inversion. While the area has been dry, soils are
significantly more moist than they were a month ago. Thus I am a
little concerned about potential for isolated flooding, or at
least significant ponding of water on roadways. Given that right
now threat seems isolated, will not yet introduce any enhanced
wording for it just yet. Steadier rain looks likely to taper to
a more showery pattern by afternoon as the warm front tries to
lift northwest into the DC metro ahead of the approaching
secondary low. Some modest instability looks likely to develop
just ahead of the cold front which will be trailing from the
secondary low, and with some decent wind aloft, some gusty if
not severe storms are certainly possible. SPC marginal risk area
looks reasonable for areas near and south of the metro. Highs
will be dependent on just how far north the warm front gets,
with 60s likely south of the front and perhaps even 70s in the
warmest spots south of the front, while 50s will hold north of
it.

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George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

The 3km NAM for tomorrow actually wasn't all that bad on the sim reflectivity. Will be interesting to see how the new NAM performs this severe season. 

ETA: This is for Virginia. We do get an okay looking line but the parameters suck until you're down into VA (especially SEVA). I wouldn't expect much for DC proper and north. Other than rain, that is. 

 

1 hour ago, yoda said:

I win and you lose tomorrow ;)

 

 

Even in VA and south MD there may be a stubborn near surface stable layer with NAM 3km showing MUcape 500-1000+J/kg, but only 0-200J/kg SBcape. Surface temps around 60F with upper 50'sF surface dewpoint temps. So the good looking line that the model shows may still be slightly elevated. Other than that, thunder still looks like a good bet for lots of areas at at least one point tomorrow. Still watching for any trends of course. It's still too early to be certain.

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, andyhb said:

TDS with the supercell approaching the southern part of the Hampton Roads metro.

30 minutes old but..

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
543 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017  
  
VAC550-800-312200-  
/O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170331T2200Z/  
CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA-CITY OF SUFFOLK VA-  
543 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR ...THE  
NORTHWESTERN CITY OF CHESAPEAKE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF  
SUFFOLK...  
          
AT 541 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED NEAR DOWNTOWN SUFFOLK, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

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