Kmlwx Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 On 4/29/2017 at 5:17 PM, yoda said: SHIP is over 3" Expand Yoda - SHiP is not hail size according to the parameter info. It's a measure of how likely SIG HAIL (2"+) is vs NON SIG HAIL (under 2") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/help/ship.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Looks hazy in NW DC right now - sunshine very filtered. Mesoanalysis latest update has ticked instability upwards. the 2pm hour update should be interesting. HRRR also gets some good storms over DC and Central MD later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 86/70 hazy sunshine, few high clouds. According to GREarth and the SPC mesoanalysis the MLCAPE is increasing and should continue to do so through the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 90.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 84 with hazy sun at home, 86 at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2017 Author Share Posted April 29, 2017 85/65 and hazy sunSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 My obs: too hot/too humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 91/72 few high clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 HRRR places the focus just south of DC now and not as intense as earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 My DP is 71. This is so not right for this time of year. Hit 91 too for temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Latest NAM nest run and last few HRRR runs still like some initiation around 22z mainly south of the DC Beltway. Hard to ignore that signal, although it wouldn't surprise me if nothing goes up - the NAM nest develops storms nicely, but it looks like it's running high with the dew points in the lower levels. Still a highly conditional threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2017 Author Share Posted April 29, 2017 BummerSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 On 4/29/2017 at 9:21 PM, mappy said: Bummer Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand More importantly, how was the t-ball game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 18z NAM soundings still look good till around 06z SUN... so hopefully something pops... Monday looks meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2017 Author Share Posted April 29, 2017 On 4/29/2017 at 9:28 PM, nw baltimore wx said: More importantly, how was the t-ball game? Great! Rain went north, kiddo had a great time. Thank you for asking Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Bust...bah. Sunday and Monday look like meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 I'm so bored with weather right now. A 90+ day in April isn't good for anything except storm fuel. Let's see if we can grab any kind of consolation prize today or tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 On 4/30/2017 at 4:20 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I know we got burned yesterday, but HRRR and NAM show potential for some activity (mostly to the west) later today. Could be something to watch. The ingredients for something to pop are still there, we just don't have forcing... Expand Reason of bust yesterday, thermonuclear cap, when Temps in DC in April are in the 90s, you know it will be an capped enviorment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 On 4/29/2017 at 9:33 PM, yoda said: 18z NAM soundings still look good till around 06z SUN... so hopefully something pops... Monday looks meh Expand On 4/29/2017 at 11:11 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Bust...bah. Sunday and Monday look like meh. Expand Afternoon CAMs for tomorrow are pretty bullish with multiple semi-discrete cells and bowing segments from Upstate NY south into this sub-forum. Shear/trough orientation certainly will be favorable, shouldn't take a lot of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2017 Author Share Posted April 30, 2017 That cell near Middleburg needs to be watched Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2017 Author Share Posted April 30, 2017 If it interacts just right with the boundary, could go tornadicSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 On 4/30/2017 at 6:58 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I like that severe warned cell out west. Looks like a supercell candidate if it can continue to feed off of the environment ahead of it. Expand Think I see a hook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2017 Author Share Posted April 30, 2017 On 4/30/2017 at 7:10 PM, yoda said: Think I see a hook?There was one. Could still be there but gonna get muddy being so close to radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2017 Author Share Posted April 30, 2017 Looks like it died down a bit, may just go over boundary and die off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 12z GFS and 12z NAM soundings tomorrow afternoon and evening do suggest a tornado threat when seeing SRH values over 200 m2/s2 on both 1km and 3km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 On 68 west of Cumberland heading east back to Jersey. I should run right into that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 We got a pity MD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Been working outside for most of the day. Feels far more humid today than it did yesterday. Drenched with sweat and sucking water like a hungover frat boy. Would love to have something fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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