mappy Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 As to not clutter up the Obs/Disc thread, since the majority of it right now is severe talk. Let's move discussion here for tomorrow's severe threat (and other threats moving forward). SPC Day 2 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 This is my kind of weather. If you are one of the people who blames me for no snow after moving from Louisiana, consider early March severe to be my jello-mold present to all of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 06z 4KM NAM sim radar for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, supernovasky said: This is my kind of weather. If you are one of the people who blames me for no snow after moving from Louisiana, consider early March severe to be my jello-mold present to all of you. You'll be accepted with open arms if you can bring us real severe during spring, with the occasional supercells during our peak heat in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: You'll be accepted with open arms if you can bring us real severe during spring, with the occasional supercells during our peak heat in the summer. And a hurricane. I'm not a great severe mind, but CAPE and shear is always a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Well now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tail end charlie on that RPM map SW of CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 6z 3km parallel NAM nest (to become ops in a few weeks) continues its idea of a lead northern line washing out and leaving a E-W boundary across DC metro, as a line of cells arrives an hour or two later. It has a scary-looking supercell right over DC at 00z tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, high risk said: 6z 3km parallel NAM nest (to become ops in a few weeks) continues its idea of a lead northern line washing out and leaving a E-W boundary across DC metro, as a line of cells arrives an hour or two later. It has a scary-looking supercell right over DC at 00z tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Well we know that's going to be wrong I'm very interested to see how the 3km NAM does with our severe this season (providing we even have a severe season) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I'm going for a discrete super cell that drops a wedge over Montgomery. there are a couple things that need to fall into place this time of year for us to maximize our potential namely: clearing and warming at the surface. We need good, regional clearing and temps to get well into the 70s. There's still a chance this thing falls apart, but so far I'm still very much interested in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I'm going for a discrete super cell that drops a wedge over Montgomery. there are a couple things that need to fall into place this time of year for us to maximize our potential namely: clearing and warming at the surface. We need good, regional clearing and temps to get well into the 70s. There's still a chance this thing falls apart, but so far I'm still very much interested in this event. I still have significant concerns we have significant cloud cover too late into the morning/afternoon. I think the clearing aspect is the biggest wild card (as it always is around here). Shear doesn't seem like it will be the problem. Would be cool to max potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: I still have significant concerns we have significant cloud cover too late into the morning/afternoon. I think the clearing aspect is the biggest wild card (as it always is around here). Shear doesn't seem like it will be the problem. Would be cool to max potential. Yea, that's my concern too. It's nothing new, standard worry for severe around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm going for a discrete super cell that drops a wedge over Montgomery. there are a couple things that need to fall into place this time of year for us to maximize our potential namely: clearing and warming at the surface. We need good, regional clearing and temps to get well into the 70s. There's still a chance this thing falls apart, but so far I'm still very much interested in this event. for the guests reading -- do not take this part seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I still have significant concerns we have significant cloud cover too late into the morning/afternoon. I think the clearing aspect is the biggest wild card (as it always is around here). Shear doesn't seem like it will be the problem. Would be cool to max potential. The 4km NAM doesn't really clear us until mid-afternoon, but still has us at ~78/60. Not sure I buy it, but we could work with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 4km NAM doesn't really clear us until mid-afternoon, but still has us at ~78/60. Not sure I buy it, but we could work with that. I think my test will be around 1pm tomorrow. If it looks like we are solidly socked in we'll probably fail. If clearing is nearby or overhead I'll say game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I think my test will be around 1pm tomorrow. If it looks like we are solidly socked in we'll probably fail. If clearing is nearby or overhead I'll say game on. I'd bump that up to 11-12am. Overnight convection in the Ohio Valley will be telling, if it shoves a ton of debris clouds our way then we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 12z NAM soundings across the region have some serious low-level shear and SRH... even at 03z THURS... I would not be surprised to see ENH for us at the 1730 SPC Day 2 OTLK I am also a lil concerned with the 0-3km MLCAPE being over 100 J/KG at both 00z and 03z THURS at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z NAM soundings across the region have some serious low-level shear and SRH... even at 03z THURS... I would not be surprised to see ENH for us at the 1730 SPC Day 2 OTLK I am also a lil concerned with the 0-3km MLCAPE being over 100 J/KG at both 00z and 03z THURS at DCA Day 2 ENH wouldn't surprise me with the afternoon update, but I'm one of those weirdos that like to wake up on Day 1 with a slight and then get bumped up to ENH/MOD quickly as the day goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 12z 4km NAM at/around CHO at 21z WED sounding -- PDS TOR 12z 4km NAM at/around Winchester in NW VA at 23z WED sounding -- PDS TOR 12z 4km NAM at/around Page/Greene counties at 22z WED sounding -- PDS TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Day 2 ENH wouldn't surprise me with the afternoon update, but I'm one of those weirdos that like to wake up on Day 1 with a slight and then get bumped up to ENH/MOD quickly as the day goes on. Yes those are the best days. When you get upgraded on day 2 it's a recipe for a letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 If correct, this would be a serious problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yes those are the best days. When you get upgraded on day 2 it's a recipe for a letdown. Yup. Nothing spells bust worse than a Day 2 MOD in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Nothing spells bust worse than a Day 2 MOD in the Mid Atlantic. Perhaps... but we all know you want to see that MOD risk show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Perhaps... but we all know you want to see that MOD risk show up Yes. on Day 1 as the sky is clearing and DCA's temp is soaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Pretty high area of SIGTOR on the 4k NAM west of D.C.. Storms seem to stay south and north though, which I am ok with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty high area of SIGTOR on the 4k NAM west of D.C.. Storms seem to stay south and north though, which I am ok with. Yeah the NAM4km seems to advertise a DC split on the sim radar. FWIW (probably not much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 26 minutes ago, TheWeatherPimp said: Very ominous 12z run of the HRRR ensemble and tornado probabilities: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/hrrrtle/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?keys=hrrr_tle_jet:&runtime=2017022812&plot_type=alltornado&fcst=00&time_inc=60&num_times=25&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Time-Lagged Ensemble - Experimental&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1&threshold=&attfn=-1&wjet=0 (FYI: This is from the Lakes/Ohio Valley severe thread) Never seen this model run before... going to watch it to see what it does as it updates later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 If 1:00 is the cutoff for clearing, it's gonna be tough with this look out west. Most of that will end up north of course, but debris clouds and at least some of it ending up south of the mason/Dixon could really screw us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: If 1:00 is the cutoff for clearing, it's gonna be tough with this look out west. Most of that will end up north of course, but debris clouds and at least some of it ending up south of the mason/Dixon could really screw us here. That shows me mostly clear skies with some clouds nearby... and he meant 1 PM as the cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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