Solak Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Ian LivingstonVerified account @islivingston 48s49 seconds ago Tomorrow's pretty potent looking. Not easy, but hard to ignore the potential. An all hazards kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Doesn't really feel like a stormy day outside, but the models seem to want to show some severe storms around here tonight into tomorrow. Seems we have to have some incredible dynamics to get any kind of storm around here now. 90% of the time the past few years if there is talk of severe storms or we are under a watch it ends up not having any storms at all around the Triangle. Forecasting severe weather here seems just as hard as forecasting snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Are some models showing storms forming in the afternoon? I thought this threat would be for in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 It's mystifying how severe weather seems so difficult to come by in the SE these days. You would think with a almost non existent wedge and the amount of sun I've seen today that surely we would have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 5m5 minutes ago The risk for some severe weather overnight continues, mainly south and east of Raleigh Details...https://goo.gl/aQiaCq #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 This big slug of moderate / light rain moving through the Carolinas , should kill any severe chances, if you were wanting that kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: This big slug of moderate / light rain moving through the Carolinas , should kill any severe chances, if you were wanting that kind of thing. [bt] It'll actually make it more humid and give the storms more instability to work with! [/bt] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: [bt] It'll actually make it more humid and give the storms more instability to work with! [/bt] It could if it happened this morning and then the sun came out afterwards. But too late for that now. Soundings have been showing several rounds of storms here overnight, though, and favorable for tornadoes. Guess we can't let our guard down yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 NWS SPCVerified account @NWSSPC 4m4 minutes ago #SPMay 4, 2017 2000Z Thunderstorm Outlook http://go.usa.gov/YWx3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Gotta love model consensus... Wes HohensteinVerified account @WeatherWes 5m5 minutes ago Storms still heading our way tonight into Fri a.m. Here are model comparisons. Most of us will see .5 to 1" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 18 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: It could if it happened this morning and then the sun came out afterwards. But too late for that now. Soundings have been showing several rounds of storms here overnight, though, and favorable for tornadoes. Guess we can't let our guard down yet. The latest HRRRRR^RRRRRR*RRRRRR gives us a robust amount of rain. I didn't look at soundings, but the storms didn't look very vigorous on the future radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The latest HRRRRR^RRRRRR*RRRRRR gives us a robust amount of rain. I didn't look at soundings, but the storms didn't look very vigorous on the future radar. Here's the latest NAM-ABAMA-BANANA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Rainfall amounts are gonna be pretty varied some will get 2-3" others hardly anything thats the nature of these events this time of year. Timing is still the big issue I think, the soundings on NAM and HRRR are still rather bad overnight but the overall setup lacks instability, so thats why we dont have anythng more than a marginal threat with this type of setup which has a windfield supporting rotation but apparently the storm mode will prevent the taking advantage of it. We could get a upgrade if they see signs of more instability but really these just dont tend to work out. From SPC.... ..South Atlantic Coast States... 12Z observed soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates and minimal buoyancy north of FL. While destabilization is ongoing downstream of an extensive (yet weakening) QLCS over the Gulf and eastern FL Panhandle, parallel stratiform across a large part of GA should confine weak surface-based buoyancy to the coastal plains this afternoon before possibly developing towards the Piedmont tonight. Localized damaging winds and a brief tornado will remain possible with the remnant northern portion of the QLCS, which may progress across parts of north FL to south SC this afternoon. A shortwave impulse currently over the Lower MS Valley should eject through the base of the upper trough towards the Carolinas. This will yield strengthening meridional flow overspreading the modifying warm sector in the eastern Carolinas/southeast Virginia tonight. Although instability should remain limited, enlarging low-level hodographs will support risks of a brief tornado and locally damaging winds. Should greater instability become observationally evident, parts of the region may be upgraded to Slight Risk in later outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 TDS on the storm near Walterboro, SC indicts tornado on the ground. Take cover and let you friends and family near Walterboro know to take cover now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Looks like it just crossed I-95 TDS still intact. Hopefully those traveling saw it and took shelter. Daniel Shaw looks to be there so he will cover any damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Another TOR Warning, this one issued by CAE WFO BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Columbia SC 826 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2017 The National Weather Service in Columbia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Clarendon County in central South Carolina... South central Sumter County in central South Carolina... * Until 900 PM EDT * At 826 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Summerton, or 10 miles west of Manning, moving north at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Sumter around 855 PM EDT. South Sumter and Millwood around 900 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Cane Savannah, Paxville, Lakewood, Privateer and Pinewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 From NWS CHAT: Homes Damaged in Walterboro - 20:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, Hvward said: Looks like it just crossed I-95 TDS still intact. Hopefully those traveling saw it and took shelter. Daniel Shaw looks to be there so he will cover any damage. Nasty hope this isn't a sign of how the night is going to go......still several couplets in SC.....that southern one looks especially nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Storm reports thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 Tornadic cell in SC is pretty nasty and sustaining a couplet, or two. Storm is open to the south so it should hold it together for a while as well. Eastern couplet looks to be trying to take over or maybe a satellite tornado to the larger broad rotation. Either way this is a very dangerous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 23m23 minutes ago A tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and South Carolina until 3 AM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Looks like the biggest threat is SE of me. Could be in for a bumpy night, or could end up not having a storm at all around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 50% prop on that watch as well, storm in SC most likely has a TOG just NE of Eutawville, SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: 50% prop on that watch as well, storm in SC most likely has a TOG just NE of Eutawville, SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 Couplet has faded hopefully its over and not cycling..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 looks like it was cycling but it hasn't been able to regain as intense o a couplet as it had earlier...so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 New tornado warning headed for Marion SC.... Tornado Warning Tornado Warning SCC041-067-050315- /O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0006.170505T0236Z-170505T0315Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1036 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2017 The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Florence County in northeastern South Carolina... Marion County in northeastern South Carolina... * Until 1115 PM EDT * At 1036 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Kingsburg, or 14 miles east of Lake City, moving north at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Marion, Mullins, Johnsonville, Zion, Hannah, Gapway, Poston, Rains, Gresham, Smithboro, Kingsburg, Brittons Neck and Carolinas Hospital System - Marion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... Bands of pre-frontal convection will continue to lift northeast across the region this morning, eventually moving offshore during the afternoon. These storms, mainly across eastern NC/VA will pose a threat for strong, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado as strong southerly deep layer shear continues to stream across the region and rich boundary layer moisture hugs the coastal plain. As midlevel height falls occur and somewhat steeper lapse rates overspread the area as the upper trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted, additional storms may develop across the Piedmont of NC/VA. However, given the amount of morning/early afternoon convection, it is unclear how much airmass recovery/destabilization may occur. Additionally, hi-res CAMs vary in coverage and intensity of afternoon convection. Should storms form, a severe threat could accompany them, but confidence is too low for introduction of any higher probability risk at this time. Further north toward PA thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon as modest destabilization occurs. Steep lapse rates with cold temperatures aloft in the vicinity of the northeastward advancing surface low and upper trough will lead to a marginal hail threat and perhaps some gusty winds given strong deep-layer shear and fast storm motions. While unlikely, a weak/brief tornado can not be ruled out in the presence of backing low-level winds ahead of the surface low. However, modest boundary layer moisture and weak instability should limit the overall threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 New tornado watch till 9am for most of central and eastern NC and NE SC...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 pretty nasty couplet just came onshore near Wilmington riding right up the beach..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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