Huriken Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Huh. My area was under a tornado warning a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 22, 2017 Author Share Posted April 22, 2017 Still is under a warning for your area, rotation just now getting to South Hill.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 I'm getting some strong winds and rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 I'm thinking the storm has already passed me. Winds have calmed and it has stopped pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Fortunately, that storm didn't do much. Just got some gusty winds and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Tornado Debris Signature near Mitchell, Alabama this hour. Storm moving northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 tornado damage (TDS) is happening at Junction City, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 144 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL TALBOT AND NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES... At 144 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Wesley Church, or 10 miles east of Talbotton, moving east at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Carsonville, Wesley Church and Prattsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Debris signature went to at least 19k feet about 15 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 152 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTH CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 245 PM EDT * AT 152 PM EDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CARSONVILLE, OR 10 MILES NORTH OF BUTLER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CARSONVILLE AND SALEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F-5 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Storm appears to riding some type of boundary. Dews in Macon are in the low sixties and almost 10 degrees higher just north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 a bit of information about that large tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, Chinook said: a bit of information about that large tornado That is associated with an earlier cell in Alabama. I can't find any damage reports from the Junction City/Salem, GA tornado. May have just mowed down trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Something to watch late next week, perhaps... From Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook page: EDIT: I'm not sure how to post images from Facebook, but the potential severe threat is for 5/4 and 5/5. EDIT AGAIN: I figured it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.hh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Looks like the mesoscale models bring the line into the Triangle later this evening and kill as it makes its way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Latest Nam and HR^3 are pathetic for eastern parts of the Triangle for this afternoon. Looks like another "limited" storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Strong rotation on radar currently near Upatoi, Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Latest Nam and HR^3 are pathetic for eastern parts of the Triangle for this afternoon. Looks like another "limited" storm threat. They are actually pretty different from one another so I wouldnt put much stock in them having the exact evolution of the storms worked out yet. Timing as usual stinks as it is after dark when they get into central and eastern NC so thats going to limit instability, the shear is pretty good though so any strong storm could rotate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Strong rotation on radar currently near Upatoi, Georgia. Rotation is pretty broad and they seem to have let the warning expire but its still a well defined large rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 deja vu As of 1045 AM Monday... Some changes with the timing as models continue to slow down the frontal system as the parent low pressure system sits over the Great Lakes region. At this time it appears the main threat for severe thunderstorms will be in the Northwest Piedmont and extreme western portions of our area. These are the locations the main line of storms may get to before 00z. With this line, damaging winds will be the most likely threat with hail as a secondary threat. After 0Z,the threat decreases considerably as the line will continue eastward reaching the Triangle area by 5-6Z, but weakening considerably as it does so. The system should exit to the east around or shortly after 12z on Tuesday. Another factor consider is that with vigorous convection ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico, outflow from that could race out ahead of the system and further cutoff our chances for severe storms later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 3pm update from nws Raleigh: Ahead of the system some areas of low level convergence have led to a few secondary weak lines of showers out ahead of the system over the western Piedmont. This could help mitigate some of the instability and may be a deterring factor for later convection. That aside, effective shear over the NW Piedmont is approaching 50 kts. with 20-30 knots of that in the lowest km. There are 300 m2/s2 of 0- 1 km storm relative helicity in place just ahead of the main line of storms so an isolated spin-up or brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially if low level winds can become a little more backed but for now much of the low level flow appears to be more parallel to the line. As much as the shear parameters look good, there are many questions regarding instability. ML CAPE ahead of the front is only around 500 J/kg at this time and low level lapse rates are weak, although mid- levels are respectable. A glance at the forecast soundings shows very long skinny CAPE, indicating that hail is less likely to be a threat but an 18z special sounding at Greensboro shows a little better CAPE than expected in the hail growth zone. The best soundings for severe wx are indeed in the Triad with the most instability and good shear but a fairly straight hodograph from 0-1 km indicating mostly speed shear. 0-3 km however is nicely curved indicating the possibility of some rotation aloft with less of a chance of it reaching the ground. Therefore the biggest threat remains damaging winds along the line with that threat decreasing as the line moves eastward and loses heating after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0625.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Reidsville got a decent rotation headed in....looked better a few scans back, and another rotation is trying to take shape behind it near Stokedale as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 HRRR really blows the line up again as it crosses the Triangle and moves into eastern NC......guess we will see how accurate it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: HRRR really blows the line up again as it crosses the Triangle and moves into eastern NC......guess we will see how accurate it is. Of course it does. Wake County routinely produces the most stable air in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 Its gives Wake some love but its probably overdoing it just a tad lol.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017050123&fh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Its gives Wake some love but its probably overdoing it just a tad lol.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017050123&fh=1 Looks like the line is maybe coming back to life a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 26 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Looks like the line is maybe coming back to life a little. SPC disc they put out a couple hrs back talks about the HRRR beefing up the activity as it heads east which is why we are back in a slight risk after being taken out of it at midday here in the east. Still its gonna be all shear and mid level lapse rates as cape stinks...still its getting late though and we see this type of setup quite often with good shear and skinny to non existent cape and more often than not it does not do much , there are exceptions though so we shall see. SPC disco Farther south, considerable thunderstorm activity has developed within the surface trough to the lee of the central/southern Appalachians. Mid/upper forcing for ascent ahead of large-scale mid/upper troughing to the west of the Appalachians is not as strong as to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, and warm mid-level layers have suppressed destabilization and convective development at least somewhat. However, the latest Rapid Refresh indicates at least some mid-level cooling, coupled with strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow to 50+ kt, this evening across the coastal plain of the Carolinas and Virginia, which may be sufficient to maintain vigorous convective development with a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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