janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 very strong couplet now over a high populated area near VA beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: very strong couplet now over a high populated area near VA beach It's over Virginia Beach - It's a sprawling city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 629 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017 VAC550-810-312300- /O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170331T2300Z/ CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA-CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH VA- 629 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR ...THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF CHESAPEAKE AND THE CENTRAL CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH... AT 627 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PRINCESS ANNE, OR NEAR KEMPSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 625 PM...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED ON THE GROUND AT INDIAN RIVER ROAD AND ELBOW ROAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Tornado Warning in effect in Bertie, Chowan, Gates and Hertford Counties in NC until 645 PM 0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Woo, nader outbreak on the southside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Buildings destroyed SW of VA Beach, including a church. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2" of rain in the last hour. I am like 2-4 miles north of the area hit by the tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Funnel cloud spotted by LE near Franklin, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Wow, PDS warning on the storms that have since passed me. I was certainly spared the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Twitter is showing relatively minor damage to homes in the Virginia Beach area. May show worse once other neighborhoods are surveyed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 roof blown off pretty large church in Chesapeake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 My guess EF-1 tornado winds of 100-110 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 My good friend in Chesapeake took these earlier this evening over his house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 http://wavy.com/2017/03/31/real-life-church-chesapeake-destroyed/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 The tornado that hit the homes on Rock Lake Loop was just down the street from my brother's house. He said it came in real quick and was out just as fast. His home suffered no damage thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 From the SPC: More substantive moisture return and potential for destabilization is evident across parts of the southeast Wednesday into to Wednesday night. However, greatest confidence in a substantive organized severe thunderstorm risk appears across the Mid Atlantic region on Thursday, coinciding with most significant surface cyclone deepening and strengthening of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields. This may include southerly 850 mb flow strengthening to 50-70 kt, contributing to strong to extreme low-level shear supportive of considerable thunderstorm wind damage potential, along with a risk for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 NWS WakefieldVerified account @NWSWakefieldVA 45s46 seconds ago Confirmed EF-1 Tornado yesterday evening near Powellsville in Bertie County, NC. #ncwx Detailed information: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201704011904-KAKQ-NOUS41-PNSAKQ … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 NWS WakefieldVerified account @NWSWakefieldVA 9m9 minutes ago Confirmed EF-2 Tornado yesterday evening across portions of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach, VA. Detailed information: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201704011943-KAKQ-NOUS41-PNSAKQ … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 NWS WakefieldVerified account @NWSWakefieldVA 37s37 seconds ago Confirmed EF-1 Tornado yesterday evening southeast of Downtown Suffolk, VA. #vawx Detailed information: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201704011919-KAKQ-NOUS41-PNSAKQ … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 thanks for the links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 D4 15% risk has been added... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 D5 15% risk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 From the SPC: Amplification within the westerlies across the Pacific coast into the Plains by the middle of this week appears likely to shift eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard by next weekend. Models suggest that this will support the continuing development of a broad deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone through the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Rapid substantive moisture return to the warm sector of the cyclone appears possible in the wake of a previous cyclone, initially along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of Alabama and Georgia by early Wednesday, closer to the cyclone center across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening, and across the Mid Atlantic Coast region by Thursday. Associated destabilization in the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving storm clusters and discrete supercell activity. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a risk for large hail. It seems probable that areas of higher severe probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 MHX is getting worried about the Wednesday Thursday threat with some strong wording. Some timing differences remain with exact placement of synoptic features during this time frame, though it appears that a potentially widespread severe weather outbreak could affect the region. The aforementioned trough attains a strong negative tilt as it swings through the Southeast US and as a result deep richmoisture gets advected into the region in tandem with very strong dynamics to support severe thunderstorms. Tremendousheight and pressure falls occur early Thursday as the sfc low deepens to around 980MB to the north. 03/00Z GFS/CMC/ECM global suite continue to indicate 850H flow of 50-70 kt aided by 110+kt 300MB jet, and PW values AOA 1.5". Even if timing of the severe threat is relegated to Wednesday night and early Thursday, instability parameters are quite high due to the sharpheight falls yielding steep mid level lapse rates, and sfc TD`s rising through the 60s overnight Wednesday. Hodographs are quite troubling in that strong SRH values aoa 400 M2/S2 are fcst by the NAM/ECMWF with low LCLs present. If all these ingredients come together the threat for a few strong tornadoes and strong damaging winds would be present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 4 hours ago, shaggy said: MHX is getting worried about the Wednesday Thursday threat with some strong wording. Some timing differences remain with exact placement of synoptic features during this time frame, though it appears that a potentially widespread severe weather outbreak could affect the region. The aforementioned trough attains a strong negative tilt as it swings through the Southeast US and as a result deep richmoisture gets advected into the region in tandem with very strong dynamics to support severe thunderstorms. Tremendousheight and pressure falls occur early Thursday as the sfc low deepens to around 980MB to the north. 03/00Z GFS/CMC/ECM global suite continue to indicate 850H flow of 50-70 kt aided by 110+kt 300MB jet, and PW values AOA 1.5". Even if timing of the severe threat is relegated to Wednesday night and early Thursday, instability parameters are quite high due to the sharpheight falls yielding steep mid level lapse rates, and sfc TD`s rising through the 60s overnight Wednesday. Hodographs are quite troubling in that strong SRH values aoa 400 M2/S2 are fcst by the NAM/ECMWF with low LCLs present. If all these ingredients come together the threat for a few strong tornadoes and strong damaging winds would be present. Yeah, we are in an enhanced threat for Wed already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Scary, yet kind of exciting...looks like I'm in the middle of Wedsnesday's threat. Quote Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0226 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017Valid 051200Z - 061200Z...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAYACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDAPANHANDLE THROUGH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA......THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDINGAREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY......THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AREASSURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA......SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Southeast,northward along and west of the Appalachians into the Ohio Valley,on Wednesday. This will include the risk for storms capable ofproducing tornadoes, at least a couple of which may be strong....Synopsis...Amplification within the westerlies emanating from the mid-latitudePacific appears likely to gradually translate across and east of theRockies during this period. As large-scale ridging builds acrossthe U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies, large-scale downstreamtroughing is forecast to continue to evolve from the Plains eastwardinto the vicinity of the Appalachians by 12Z Thursday. A lower/midtropospheric cyclone associated with an initial significantperturbation turning northeast of the southern Rockies on Tuesday,appears likely migrate northeast of the lower central Plains/Ozarksthrough the Ohio Valley Wednesday/Wednesday night. Furtherdeepening of the surface low is expected, with strengthening windfields and shear within/above its potentially broad warm sector. Low-level moisture will still be in the process of returning, in thewake of a prior system, and this appears to be the primaryuncertainty at this time which could temper the overall severeweather potential....Southeast...Greatest confidence in substantive boundary layer moistening appearsacross portions of the eastern Gulf states into the south AtlanticCoast states. Vigorous convective development may be ongoing at 12ZWednesday inland of the northeast Gulf coast, in response todestabilization associated with the moistening, and large-scaleascent associated with lower/mid-level warm advection. Guidance issuggestive that this may be aided by forcing associated with asubtropical speed maximum, which may contribute to an increase incoverage through the day, within the northeastward advectingmoisture plume. In the presence of at least modestly steepmid-level lapse rates, and wind profiles becoming characterized bystrong deep layer shear and sizable low-level hodographs,considerable organized severe weather potential appears to exist. This may include discrete supercells accompanied by the risk forlarge hail and tornadoes. Severe thunderstorm potential couldcontinue into Wednesday night across and to the lee of the southernAppalachians, ahead of the main upper trough....Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...Although a bit more uncertain at this time, models indicate at leasta corridor of substantive pre-frontal low-level moisture return isprobable, in a pre-cold frontal plume across Tennessee into thevicinity of the surface low center and warm front across the OhioValley. Uncertainties also remain evident concerning the track ofthe cyclone, and this is reflected in the delineation of the severeprobabilities. But, in the presence of considerable large-scaleforcing for ascent, and strong deep layer/low-level shear, organizedsevere storm development still seems possible over a fairly broadarea. This includes the risk for discrete supercells, particularlylate Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 The potential severe threat on Thurs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 From the SPC: Within the warm sector of the cyclone, there still appears a window of opportunity for organized severe storm development on Thursday (mainly prior to 18-20Z), as the exit region of a forecast 90+ kt cyclonic 500 mb jet noses across the Mid Atlantic Coast region. Models suggest coinciding strengthening of a southerly 850 mb jet in excess of 50 kt across this region, as increasing surface dew points, and insolation beneath a dry slot, contribute to at least weak boundary layer destabilization. There appears potential for discrete supercell development, and perhaps an evolving line of storms, with potential for severe hail, damaging straight-line wind gusts and a few tornadoes, before upper forcing and the moistening warm sector shift offshore late Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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