Jim Martin Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Impressive Mesoscale Convective System tonight in eastern Georgia, along with western South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 The funny thing about the crazy severe hail around GSP and CLT areas, is they were all pop up tstorms, the MCS , was a dud and these were hours ahead of the MCS ! When storms pop up in TR area and drift S/SE, they can be wicked pissahs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 Here is a sounding for Tuscaloosa, Alabama for late Saturday afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 23, 2017 Author Share Posted March 23, 2017 We actually had some decent hail here at work with the storms last night, was at least marble size with some hen egg sized ones mixed in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 Latest 3km Nam run pretty decent, still though overall threat looks to be fairly tame with marginal severe http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017032718&fh=6 RAH write up Models do favor redevelop of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms along the surface wind shift line that is forecast to move SE into central NC Tuesday afternoon. The favored lift area out ahead of the mid/upper trough is forecast to reach the eastern Piedmont into the Coastal Plain and Coastal Areas during the peak heating period. Convection may blossom as early as late morning or around noon near the wind shift line, and should spread and develop ESE during the afternoon. It appears that the most favored area for optional heating and destabilization should occur just to the east and south of the Triangle area, just before the convection develops in the early afternoon and tracks into the region. The earlier timing of thefront and trough should limit the strong to severe threat in the NW Piedmont Triad region, with the focus in the eastern zones. Even in the east where the instability and shear is expected to be higher, most parameters for severe storms are forecast to be marginal. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the east, with dew points nearing 60, should lead to MLCapes near 1000 J/KG. Mid level lapse rates may still be in question but some subtle warming aloft may be a negative factor for organized severe storms. Still, look for at least scattered thunderstorms with the potential for wind gusts to 40-50 mph and possibly up to 1 inch hail in a few of the strongest storms. We will highlight areas east of the Triad area for this potential due to timing in the Hazardous WeatherOutlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 Some action firing up west of the Triangle and the sun after this morning showers have got instability back up could see a few hailers and microburst, the shear is there to support them for the rest of the afternoon.... Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281758Z - 282030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to marginally severe storms capable of hail are possible this afternoon mainly across southeast Virginia into eastern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...Surface heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures in association with a shortwave trough has led to around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE across central VA and NC. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cumulus development, with a few weak thunderstorms over western VA aided by the higher terrain. Farther east, a relative cool pockets was noted over eastern NC due to ongoing showers, however, these will eventually move offshore with warmer air returning from the west. With time, further heating will erode any remaining CIN, allowing at least isolated thunderstorms to form across the entire area. Little focus exists given a broad/weak surface low, however, the best area may be over southeastern VA and central to northeastern NC in a few hours, as the instability axis shifts into that area, and where low-level convergence will exist for a longer duration as winds generally veer with time, from west to east. A cell or two could exhibit supercell characteristics at times, but the main threat should be hail as winds in the low-levels will be weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 We just had about 1 minute of small hail in downtown Raleigh. This was about 15 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: We just had about 1 minute of small hail in downtown Raleigh. This was about 15 minutes ago. Yeah wont take much to get hail, a few nasty cells warned in eastern NC right now both have impressive hail cores.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Damn! Kelley Williamson, the storm chaser contracted by TWC and always on the air, was killed in a car crash , chasing today! Sad! RIP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Wow RIP Kelley. So sad. He was such a nice guy. Shared a burger after a chase in Litchfield, Illinois with him and his son. I am very saddened by this news. The storm chase community will miss him immensely.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 Bummer about Kelly, even sadder is he blew that stop sign so it was a avoidable accident, still he was one of the best to watch as he took time to answer questions and really tried to explain what was going on so people could understand...... On a local severe storm note some huge hail yesterday in Jones Co, here is a link to the NWS info concerning it... http://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar282017Hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 hours ago, Hvward said: Wow RIP Kelley. So sad. He was such a nice guy. Shared a burger after a chase in Litchfield, Illinois with him and his son. I am very saddened by this news. The storm chase community will miss him immensely. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, the weird thing was, I had TWC on at about 4:00, and was watching him chase that storm and report on it, live on air . Then the accident happened at 3:30 central , so 4:30 our time! Then he's just gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Monday looks like it could be very active over the Southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 7 hours ago, downeastnc said: Bummer about Kelly, even sadder is he blew that stop sign so it was a avoidable accident, still he was one of the best to watch as he took time to answer questions and really tried to explain what was going on so people could understand...... On a local severe storm note some huge hail yesterday in Jones Co, here is a link to the NWS info concerning it... http://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar282017Hail Yeah and it's my understanding Kelly hit another chase vehicle and that chaser was killed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Yeah and it's my understanding Kelly hit another chase vehicle and that chaser was killed as well. Yes, Kelley and his chasing partner were killed and the other driver of the other car was a chaser as well. All 3 died! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 Nam 3K looks rough for Friday.....GFS and Euro are both way less severe but lately its tough to bet against the NAM inside of 48 hrs.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017032918&fh=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Nam 3K looks rough for Friday.....GFS and Euro are both way less severe but lately its tough to bet against the NAM inside of 48 hrs.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017032918&fh=6 RAH this afternoon... The 12Z GFS/ECMWF suggest a lower potential for severe weather given an upper low track further to the north and a slightly faster progression of the system. The 12Z NAM would suggest a more robust potential for severe weather due to the closer proximity of the upper low and slightly slower progression of the system which would result in favorable diurnal timing, as well. Uncertainty remains too high to say much more w/regard to the severe weather potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Yes, Kelley and his chasing partner were killed and the other driver of the other car was a chaser as well. All 3 died! It sounds like Kelley was just very unlucky. I mean what are the odds that you are in the middle of nowhere and run a stop sign a car comes out of nowhere and just happens to hit you at the exact same moment you are running the stop sign ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 16 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: It sounds like Kelley was just very unlucky. I mean what are the odds that you are in the middle of nowhere and run a stop sign a car comes out of nowhere and just happens to hit you at the exact same moment you are running the stop sign ? That's a stretch. I think the unlucky one if you want to call it that, was the 25-year old that was killed in the other car. If Kelly had lived he would be facing several charges including some form of a manslaughter charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 It sounds like Kelley was just very unlucky. I mean what are the odds that you are in the middle of nowhere and run a stop sign a car comes out of nowhere and just happens to hit you at the exact same moment you are running the stop sign ? Kelley wasn't unlucky at all, it was reckless and they killed another completely innocent person along with themselves. If you watch the live stream from then, within an hour time they ran at least 3-4 stop signs without slowing down, and have done it many times in the past. I went on a rant in the thread about the accident, not gonna rehash it too much here too, I'll go on forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Kelley wasn't unlucky at all, it was reckless and they killed another completely innocent person along with themselves. If you watch the live stream from then, within an hour time they ran at least 3-4 stop signs without slowing down, and have done it many times in the past. I went on a rant in the thread about the accident, not gonna rehash it too much here too, I'll go on forever. Yeah but your 100% correct, when its all said and done what happened was almost the inevitable outcome of years of carelessness...if you regularly run stops signs you will eventually end up in a wreck, luck or lack of it has nothing to do with it. When I watched the feed I was frankly amazed that they actually appear to speed up as they approached the intersection...hopefully this serves as a huge wake up call to the chasing community. No tornado footage is worth this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I agree, total felony disregard for anyone else including his friend. This kind of chase mentality will cause the criminalization of storm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Looks like it could get a bumpy this afternoon in GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Yeah then tomorrow looks rough as hell on NAM 3K here is the 12Z loop, it also has that cluster this afternoon http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017033012&fh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 RAH- 3/30/17 HWO Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Friday morning, as an upper level disturbance passes through the region. A few of these storms could be strong to severe, with a risk of damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado or two. The greatest threat will be between 4 am and 11 am. Additional scattered storms are expected Friday afternoon, and these will be capable of producing strong straight line wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 7 hours ago, No snow for you said: Looks like it could get a bumpy this afternoon in GSP Atlanta metro gets clocked if this comes to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 nice supercells at this time VA/NC border area any news on this? SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 543 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017 VAC550-800-312200- /O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170331T2200Z/ CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA-CITY OF SUFFOLK VA- 543 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR ...THE NORTHWESTERN CITY OF CHESAPEAKE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF SUFFOLK... AT 541 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DOWNTOWN SUFFOLK, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 NWS WakefieldVerified account @NWSWakefieldVA 31m31 minutes ago Possible debris ball signature showing up on radar with the Tornado warned cell in eastern City of Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 http://wtkr.com/on-air/live-streaming/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Areas affected...Portions of coastal Virginia/North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 105... Valid 312211Z - 312345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a couple tornadoes, isolated instances of large hail, and a few damaging-wind gusts continues. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells, as well as a small linear segment with an embedded mesovortex, continue eastward across Watch 105 this evening. One tornado was already evident via a dual-pol debris signature (around 2135Z) near Suffolk, VA. Occasional ZDR arc signatures with this supercell, as well as two to the west/southwest, suggest a near-storm environment characterized by favorable low-level storm-relative flow veering with height. Interaction with a weak warm front lingering over the area and/or recent outflow boundaries may further yield an uptick in tornado potential, as localized backing of near-surface winds occurs. Sufficient buoyancy/effective shear overlap (especially with southward extent) will also encourage a few instances of severe hail. As mid-level ascent increases with the approach of the main vorticity maximum to the west, these cells should persist as they head toward the coast. Indeed, this ascent is likely aiding a linear segment currently near Greenville County, VA. As it pushes east, an attendant threat for damaging wind and an embedded tornado or two will likely exist with this line, with the overall threat ending following its passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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