Solak Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 741 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PITT COUNTY... At 740 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Ayden, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Crazy rain rates and lightning with this tornado warned pitt county cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, downeastnc said: thats me......though that cell racing north in front of the main cell might disrupt it enough to greatly reduce the chances this thing actually produces....but if it does its about to be over a extremely developed area. Stay safe man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2.16" so far today with another round coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Stay safe man! It had a lot of trash forming in front and that kept it in check....still several lines to work through the state lol probably not as much severe stuff ( hopefully)....might see some flooding issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: It had a lot of trash forming in front and that kept it in check....still several lines to work through the state lol probably not as much severe stuff ( hopefully)....might see some flooding issues though. Yeah it's raining here again. We've had probably 3 or so inches, I would guess. I really need a rain gauge! Looks like the severe threat is winding down, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Wow look at the hook on the storm Southeast of Greenville how does that not have a warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Thought the storms were done here, but now it's thundering again pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 MHX radar is down ( good timing ) and that cell headed towards Pitt Co has a notch in it and its tracking over just about the same path as the last one, no warnings on it though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just passed 3", backyard flooded again, ditches running full and fast.....hopefully these last few storms to the west heading this way fizz out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Hail and no rain! Just a few balls are randomly falling. This is crazy! I didn't want to post off topic during the event but you didn't need to be that scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Well, if it was more than two then something ain't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, jburns said: I didn't want to post off topic during the event but you didn't need to be that scared. I started to edit that post, but then I thought, nah...let someone have some fun with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Gonna end up just shy of 4" assuming I dont get much more the rest of the evening....models bring some more rain over us tomorrow...this is the second 3" plus event I have had IMBY in the last 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Television meteorologists did a great job in all markets I saw on Twitter, no TV feed here. I like how they make strong hints, rotating, hook, etc. Tough to actually say the T word until the NWS warning, but TV Mets rightfully make it pretty obvious. NWS did a good job too. Can we have it both ways? SPC shows few tornado reports, so maybe NWS restraint was justified. At the same time I still support TV Mets making their call. TV Mets really do care personally about their viewers. Finally, discerning a true debris ball requires correlation coefficient on dual-pole radar. Reflectivivity ball with moderate rotation is not enough. Look for CC green or blue; CC yellow if strong rotation. That said, I'd warn on reflectivity but save the 'confirmed' until CC is green. If CC is blue, tornado emergency IMHO. Opinions are my own, not of my employer, and definitely not of the Government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 National Weather Service Raleigh NC 954 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 ...Hail Damage and Minor Straight Line Wind Damage Confirmed Near Fuquay-Varina in Wake County and Angier in Harnett County North Carolina... Location...Fuquay-Varina (Wake) / Angier (Harnett) North Carolina Date...September 1, 2017 Estimated Time...455 to 515 PM EDT * Fatalities...None * Injuries...None * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS Storm Data. ...Summary... The National Weather Service in Raleigh NC conducted a storm survey this afternoon in southern Wake County and far northern Harnett County, namely, in the Fuquay-Varina and Angier areas. The survey found substantial hail damage in and just east- southeast of Fuquay-Varina. Hail damage in this area consisted of broken windows and damaged siding on dozens of homes. Dozens, if not hundreds, of automobiles experienced substantial hail damage, which included shattered windshields and numerous large dents in hoods, roofs, and fenders. The hardest hit area appeared to be in several neighborhoods along and near Old Honeycutt Road. Many of the residents in this area said that the hail was baseball to softball size, and this is consistent with the degree of damage in this area. KRAX radar showed that this area was in the forward flank of a supercell thunderstorm that moved across the area around 5 PM on Friday. The survey continued farther south into northern Harnett County in the Angier area. NWS Raleigh had received a report of a tornado on the ground in this area, however the survey found very minimal damage, less than a half-dozen downed trees that were widely scattered across the northern portion of the county. While it is possible that a funnel cloud may have been sighted in the area, given the minimal amount of damage and lack of organization and a discernible damage pattern, it appears that the funnel cloud did not extend to the ground to become a tornado. Thus, the NWS was unable to confirm that a tornado occurred anywhere in Angier or the surrounding area. The few trees that were knocked down were likely the result of straight-line winds associated with the supercell thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Public Information Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 356 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 ...Tornado Confirmed Near Pink Hill in Lenoir County North Carolina... Location...Pink Hill in Lenoir County North Carolina Date...September 1 2017 Estimated Time...7:20 PM EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF1 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85-95 mph Maximum Path Width...75 yards Path Length...About 1/2 mile Beginning Lat/Lon...35.03N / 77.68W Ending lat/Lon...35.04N / 77.68W * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS Storm Data. ...Summary... The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City NC has confirmed a tornado near Pink Hill in Lenoir County North Carolina on September 1st 2017. The tornado first touched down near properties on Turner Farm Road stripping some metal paneling off an outbuilding, and partially removing the roof of another outbuilding. The tornado was then described to have lifted up and come down several times as it traveled close to a 1/2 mile, with only a few smaller trees uprooted in the mostly forested portion of the path. The tornado then came back down and caused more significant damage to a property on Snags Path Road. At this property, a well built outbuilding had the roof torn off and scattered about the yard, with one piece landing on a power transformer pole. A smaller outbuilding also sustained damage, as the roof was partially torn back and parts of the metal awning blown off the structure. Additionally, there were a few trees down near these buildings, with one of them snapped about midway up. The tornado then dissipated shortly after moving past the property on Snags Path Road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like there's a chance of storms arou d here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Tons of lightning out there to our SW. Storms firing up out ahead of the front from North of the Triangle South to the SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 RAH HWO 10/21 2:10PM .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A strong cold front will produce potentially severe thunderstorms from Monday afternoon through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, with the potential for an isolated tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 22, 2017 Author Share Posted October 22, 2017 19 hours ago, Solak said: RAH HWO 10/21 2:10PM .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A strong cold front will produce potentially severe thunderstorms from Monday afternoon through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, with the potential for an isolated tornado. November has had some memorable severe weather events in NC.......the Nov 88 F4 in Raleigh and the Nov 92 outbreak that had the F2/3 that was on the ground for 160 continuous miles from south of RDU to Elizabeth City. Hi Res runs look rough for a lot of the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 22, 2017 Author Share Posted October 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Hi-Res NAM looking pretty stout tomorrow. Some near 30kt 10m winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 1 hour ago, JoshM said: Hi-Res NAM looking pretty stout tomorrow. Some near 30kt 10m winds. Meh, looking at current radar, convection is robbing moisture transport, tomorrow looks to be uneventful in our area, IMO . May not even here thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 SPC slight risk ...Portions of Virginia/the Carolinas and surrounding areas... Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near/ahead of the front at the start of the period over the mid South and Southeast, spreading northeastward with time into the Carolinas and Virginia prior to frontal passage. Models exhibit substantial differences regarding coverage of the pre-frontal convection, but at this time it appears that the degree of cloudiness/precipitation will be substantial enough to maintain weak lapse rates and hinder diurnal heating to at least some degree. As such, CAPE will likely remain limited in many areas to around 500 J/kg or less -- and in turn therefore limiting overall intensity of convection/degree of severe risk. With that said, shear profiles should gradually strengthen across the region, likely becoming quite supportive of rotating updrafts, as 40 to 50 kt southwesterly flow at mid levels spreads atop isallobarically backed/enhanced low-level southeasterlies. Thus -- with favorable shear but uncertainty with respect to available instability, the severe forecast remains conditional upon initiation of deeper/robust updrafts. At this time, it appears that focused ascent near the front itself may promote a band of stronger/forced updrafts on the western edge of ongoing/scattered pre-frontal convection. While some tornado risk will exist within the stronger pre-frontal cells, greater severe potential -- to include damaging winds in addition to a few tornadoes -- will likely evolve within the frontal convective band. This band should evolve/intensify by early to mid afternoon, and then shift northeastward across the mid-Atlantic and southeast states through the evening and into the overnight hours. Some risk for wind -- with a narrow band of frontal convection that may produce little lightning -- may spread across the central Appalachians and possibly north of the Mason/Dixon line overnight, though greatest severe threat should reside over the Carolinas and parts of Virginia as indicated by the slight risk area until convection gradually weakens -- and eventually moves offshore -- through latter stages of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Tie down the Pumpkins!!! Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond- Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland- 801 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A potent upper level trough and related strong surface frontal system will cross the forecast area late this afternoon through early tonight. An associated band or two of showers and thunderstorms, and risk of severe weather, will result mainly between 4 PM and 10 PM. Widespread wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph are expected, with corridors of locally damaging gusts between 50 and 65 mph. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible. While hail is not expected to be widespread, the strongest storms will be capable of producing quarter to perhaps golfball-sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Sounds like I need to make sure the inflatable Halloween decorations are secured well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 13 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Meh, looking at current radar, convection is robbing moisture transport, tomorrow looks to be uneventful in our area, IMO . May not even here thunder! Lol. Your on the plus side of 2 inches and headed toward 4 or 5. Been hanging around shettly to long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 1737 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Areas affected...Extreme eastern GA...SC...western NC Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 231707Z - 231900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across SC and western NC into the mid-afternoon hours. Tornado watch will likely be issued by 18-19z to account for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Didn't expect to have a watch nearby today. Guess the threat is less for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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