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2017 General Severe Weather thread


downeastnc

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741 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL PITT COUNTY...

At 740 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Ayden, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
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9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

It had a lot of trash forming in front and that kept it in check....still several lines to work through the state lol probably not as much severe stuff ( hopefully)....might see some flooding issues though. 

Yeah it's raining here again.  We've had probably 3 or so inches, I would guess.  I really need a rain gauge!  Looks like the severe threat is winding down, though.

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Television meteorologists did a great job in all markets I saw on Twitter, no TV feed here. I like how they make strong hints, rotating, hook, etc. Tough to actually say the T word until the NWS warning, but TV Mets rightfully make it pretty obvious. 

NWS did a good job too. Can we have it both ways? SPC shows few tornado reports, so maybe NWS restraint was justified. At the same time I still support TV Mets making their call. TV Mets really do care personally about their viewers. 

Finally, discerning a true debris ball requires correlation coefficient on dual-pole radar. Reflectivivity ball with moderate rotation is not enough. Look for CC green or blue; CC yellow if strong rotation. That said, I'd warn on reflectivity but save the 'confirmed' until CC is green. If CC is blue, tornado emergency IMHO.

Opinions are my own, not of my employer, and definitely not of the Government.

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National Weather Service Raleigh NC
954 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...Hail Damage and Minor Straight Line Wind Damage Confirmed Near
Fuquay-Varina in Wake County and Angier in Harnett County North 
Carolina...

Location...Fuquay-Varina (Wake) / Angier (Harnett) North Carolina
Date...September 1, 2017 
Estimated Time...455 to 515 PM EDT 
* Fatalities...None
* Injuries...None

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Raleigh NC conducted a storm
survey this afternoon in southern Wake County and far northern 
Harnett County, namely, in the Fuquay-Varina and Angier areas. 
The survey found substantial hail damage in and just east-
southeast of Fuquay-Varina. Hail damage in this area consisted of 
broken windows and damaged siding on dozens of homes. Dozens, if 
not hundreds, of automobiles experienced substantial hail damage,
which included shattered windshields and numerous large dents in 
hoods, roofs, and fenders. The hardest hit area appeared to be in
several neighborhoods along and near Old Honeycutt Road. Many of 
the residents in this area said that the hail was baseball to 
softball size, and this is consistent with the degree of damage in
this area. KRAX radar showed that this area was in the forward 
flank of a supercell thunderstorm that moved across the area 
around 5 PM on Friday.

The survey continued farther south into northern Harnett County in
the Angier area. NWS Raleigh had received a report of a tornado on
the ground in this area, however the survey found very minimal
damage, less than a half-dozen downed trees that were widely 
scattered across the northern portion of the county. While it is 
possible that a funnel cloud may have been sighted in the area, 
given the minimal amount of damage and lack of organization and a 
discernible damage pattern, it appears that the funnel cloud did 
not extend to the ground to become a tornado. Thus, the NWS was 
unable to confirm that a tornado occurred anywhere in Angier or 
the surrounding area. The few trees that were knocked down were 
likely the result of straight-line winds associated with the 
supercell thunderstorm. 
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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
356 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...Tornado Confirmed Near Pink Hill in Lenoir County North Carolina...

Location...Pink Hill in Lenoir County North Carolina
Date...September 1 2017
Estimated Time...7:20 PM EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF1
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85-95 mph 
Maximum Path Width...75 yards 
Path Length...About 1/2 mile
Beginning Lat/Lon...35.03N / 77.68W
Ending lat/Lon...35.04N / 77.68W
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City NC has confirmed
a tornado near Pink Hill in Lenoir County North Carolina on September
1st 2017.

The tornado first touched down near properties on Turner Farm Road
stripping some metal paneling off an outbuilding, and partially 
removing the roof of another outbuilding. The tornado was then 
described to have lifted up and come down several times as it traveled
close to a 1/2 mile, with only a few smaller trees uprooted in the 
mostly forested portion of the path. The tornado then came back down 
and caused more significant damage to a property on Snags Path Road. At
this property, a well built outbuilding had the roof torn off and 
scattered about the yard, with one piece landing on a power transformer 
pole. A smaller outbuilding also sustained damage, as the roof was 
partially torn back and parts of the metal awning blown off the 
structure. Additionally, there were a few trees down near these 
buildings, with one of them snapped about midway up. The tornado then 
dissipated shortly after moving past the property on Snags Path Road.
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  • 1 month later...

RAH HWO 10/21 2:10PM

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A strong cold front will produce potentially severe thunderstorms 
from Monday afternoon through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts will 
be the primary threat, with the potential for an isolated tornado. 
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19 hours ago, Solak said:

RAH HWO 10/21 2:10PM


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A strong cold front will produce potentially severe thunderstorms 
from Monday afternoon through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts will 
be the primary threat, with the potential for an isolated tornado. 

November has had some memorable severe weather events in NC.......the Nov 88 F4 in Raleigh and the Nov 92 outbreak that had the F2/3 that was on the ground for 160 continuous miles from south of RDU to Elizabeth City. Hi Res runs look rough  for a lot of the SE

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SPC slight risk 

day1otlk_1200.gif.f012cf63bbf0c9d2739729ca0230a05c.gif

...Portions of Virginia/the Carolinas and surrounding areas...
   Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
   ongoing near/ahead of the front at the start of the period over the
   mid South and Southeast, spreading northeastward with time into the
   Carolinas and Virginia prior to frontal passage.  Models exhibit
   substantial differences regarding coverage of the pre-frontal
   convection, but at this time it appears that the degree of
   cloudiness/precipitation will be substantial enough to maintain weak
   lapse rates and hinder diurnal heating to at least some degree.  As
   such, CAPE will likely remain limited in many areas to around 500
   J/kg or less -- and in turn therefore limiting overall intensity of
   convection/degree of severe risk.

   With that said, shear profiles should gradually strengthen across
   the region, likely becoming quite supportive of rotating updrafts,
   as 40 to 50 kt southwesterly flow at mid levels spreads atop
   isallobarically backed/enhanced low-level southeasterlies.  Thus --
   with favorable shear but uncertainty with respect to available
   instability, the severe forecast remains conditional upon initiation
   of deeper/robust updrafts.

   At this time, it appears that focused ascent near the front itself
   may promote a band of stronger/forced updrafts on the western edge
   of ongoing/scattered pre-frontal convection.  While some tornado
   risk will exist within the stronger pre-frontal cells, greater
   severe potential -- to include damaging winds in addition to a few
   tornadoes -- will likely evolve within the frontal convective band. 
   This band should evolve/intensify by early to mid afternoon, and
   then shift northeastward across the mid-Atlantic and southeast
   states through the evening and into the overnight hours.  Some risk
   for wind -- with a narrow band of frontal convection that may
   produce little lightning -- may spread across the central
   Appalachians and possibly north of the Mason/Dixon line overnight,
   though greatest severe threat should reside over the Carolinas and
   parts of Virginia as indicated by the slight risk area until
   convection gradually weakens -- and eventually moves offshore --
   through latter stages of the period.
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Tie down the Pumpkins!!!

Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-
Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
801 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A potent upper level trough and related strong surface frontal 
system will cross the forecast area late this afternoon through 
early tonight. An associated band or two of showers and 
thunderstorms, and risk of severe weather, will result mainly 
between 4 PM and 10 PM. Widespread wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph 
are expected, with corridors of locally damaging gusts between 50 and
65 mph. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible. While hail is not 
expected to be widespread, the strongest storms will be capable of 
producing quarter to perhaps golfball-sized hail. 
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< Previous MD
MD 1737 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 1737
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

   Areas affected...Extreme eastern GA...SC...western NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 231707Z - 231900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across SC and western NC into
   the mid-afternoon hours. Tornado watch will likely be issued by
   18-19z to account for this threat.
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