downeastnc Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Looks like the severe season will be getting off to a early start.....will probably need a dedicated thread for the Wed Mar 1st threat. This thread will be for discussing threats in the 2-7 day range or the random severe storms, using dedicated threads for days that are forecast to be "busier" seems to work well and help for archiving etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 This coming Wed map from SPC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Should be active in extreme western GA, NC, and SC and west from there. In our neck of the woods, as usual, there will be a mitigating factor, bad diurnal timing in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 8 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Should be active in extreme western GA, NC, and SC and west from there. In our neck of the woods, as usual, there will be a mitigating factor, bad diurnal timing in this case. Yeah that always seems to be the case I cant remember the last time we had a squall line come through in the early afternoon, they are always later at night it seems...the Nam3K keeps flipping back and forth on intensity with the system this far east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Storms look to be rough around 7 pm , according to future radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Storms look to be rough around 7 pm , according to future radar! That might even be a bit late the models seem to be a bit behind with the timing especially on the southern end of the line its already almost to Nashville and racing east.... NAM 3K for your neck of the woods... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Not sure if this will matter much but storms look to be way ahead of modeled timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: That might even be a bit late the models seem to be a bit behind with the timing especially on the southern end of the line its already almost to Nashville and racing east.... NAM 3K for your neck of the woods... That sure is a strong line , as modeled, coming through at peak heating, especially if it's a few hours ahead of schedule! Local mets were saying that the line was going to break up over the mountains !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Paranormal Nam keeps the line together through the Triangle, actually. Kind of surprised to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 DP's in the low to mid 60's in central and eastern NC will be enough to support the storms, how severe is still a pretty big question mark....the timing is still a issue for RDU and east, lower DP are the issue in the foothills/piedmont. Parameters in eastern NC are actually pretty robust for Feb......looking at the SPC parameter page its a good thing there are no storms firing over eastern NC or SE VA right now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Surprised noons posted these. Watch in Danville til 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Northern AL and GA getting more interesting for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Cool , I'm in the enhanced and 30% area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Cool , I'm in the enhanced and 30% area! 70% chance you'll be ok! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1210 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA... NORTHWESTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 1245 PM CST * AT 1210 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROGERSVILLE, OR 15 MILES EAST OF FLORENCE, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 I've had an eye on these, looks interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 HRRR is bullish one run then not so much the next...if those discrete cells it has over the upstate SC form those could be trouble.....and any bowed areas of the main line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 59 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 300 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CABARRUS CALDWELL CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CLEVELAND DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH GASTON GRAHAM GUILFORD HAYWOOD HENDERSON IREDELL JACKSON LEE LINCOLN MACON MADISON MCDOWELL MECKLENBURG MITCHELL MONTGOMERY MOORE ORANGE PERSON POLK RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM ROWAN RUTHERFORD STANLY STOKES SURRY SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA UNION WILKES YADKIN YANCEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Looks like timing from this morning, may have been right !? Guess the line slowed some? HRRR had it here at 7 ish tonight, seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Some discretes firing in NEGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Hickory area got a decent storm headed in....a decent area of rotation developing with it.....just popped a tornado warning on it rotation sharpened up quick, rotation about to pass just south of Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Verified account @NWSGSP 1m1 minute ago TORNADO WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5:15 PM FOR BURKE-NC CATAWBA-NC * At 440 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 6 miles southwest of Morganton, or 5 miles south of Glen Alpine, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * This dangerous storm will be near... Drexel around 450 PM EST. Connelly Springs, Rutherford College, Valdese and Lake Rhodhiss around 500 PM EST. Hickory, Hildebran, Mountain View, Longview and Hickory Regional Airport around 510 PM EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 lets hope it isn't producing anything its right over Hickory.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 There is some very weak and broad rotation in the storm near Suwanee straddling the Forsyth/Gwinnett County line. It's nothing to report, but just a general piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Cell near Forest City getting a broad rotation on it will be headed in the general direction of Charlotte more so the northern half of the metro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Does storm south of Walhalla look like it's getting a possible hook echo to anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said: Does storm south of Walhalla look like it's getting a possible hook echo to anyone else? Sure does to me as well. That cell looks pretty bad and heading for Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said: Does storm south of Walhalla look like it's getting a possible hook echo to anyone else? The cell near Reed Creek/Hartwell is the best looking storm in SC....of all of them it appears in the best environment and it has that "look". Cell in NC north of Gastonia getting a decent rotation in it as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0250 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern North Carolina and northern South Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 012321Z - 020115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Clusters and small lines of strong/severe thunderstorms will continue east across the region this evening, with an attendant threat for damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a tornado. Watch 59 will probably need some eastward expansion and/or a new downstream watch closer to coast could be issued. DISCUSSION...Small bowing segments/clusters of occasionally severe thunderstorms are advancing east across the Carolinas early this evening. These storms are encountering an air mass characterized by a relatively well-mixed boundary layer, with dew points in the mid/upper 50s. In turn, mixed-layer convective inhibition may cause less organized cells to weaken further in the near-term. However, considering 1-3 km southwesterly flow around 35-50 kts and relatively steep low-level lapse rates, any modest upscale growth may pose a threat for some strong/damaging gusts in the near term. A southward-sinking outflow boundary over northern NC may continue to provide a focus for downwind propagation, which would also focus a greater wind threat. As such, Watch 59 may need eastward expansion across parts of central NC and central/eastern SC. Later this evening, an increasing low-level jet may advect higher dew points (in the lower 60s) ahead of the line across the eastern Carolinas. A resultant uptick in MLCAPE may encourage some strengthening of these storms later this evening. If such an increasing wind threat were to materialize, new watch issuance would be needed downstream. Additionally, strong low-level wind fields and a moistening boundary layer could support the potential for a tornado or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Pretty did event around here! Few reports of hail in Downtown Greenville , Pelham rd area and such . A few trees down and power lines . Peak power outages were around 16,000 , per local news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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