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T-Storm/Squall Line Threat II 3/1


dmillz25

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From Mt. Holly

 

THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION AND THE LOW CLOUDS WAS  
KEEPING OUR REGION SOMEWHAT STABLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME  
CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS  
AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT  
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE AND HOW  
MUCH THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH  
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  

Watch Issued Central Jersey south bound

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.wwus61.KPHI.html


 

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9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

This doesn't look like it is going to have the same bite that Saturday did, at least for the NYC metro region IMO.

Big bust potential today for sure, given that the Northern portion of the line looks fairly weak and the mesoscale models have been focusing more on Central and Southern NJ for the last day.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Big bust potential today for sure, given that the Northern portion of the line looks fairly weak and the mesoscale models have been focusing more on Central and Southern NJ for the last day.

That batch of showers and storms that passed through northern NJ this morning created a more stable atmosphere and ruined the severe chances...

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

That batch of showers and storms that passed through northern NJ this morning created a more stable atmosphere and ruined the severe chances...

I disagree. All that this morning was elevated. The current lack of instability over the Northern portion of the area is due to the lack of sufficent warming, although we still have some time to fix that. 

More and more breaks in the cloud deck are advancing NE

vis-animated.gif

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

Do you disagree just to disagree with me ? This is from the Mt. Holly AFD they just issued

"THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION AND  
THE LOW CLOUDS WAS KEEPING OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SOMEWHAT  
STABLE. AS A RESULT, THE POCONOS, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN  
NEW JERSEY ARE NOT IN THE WATCH."  
 

 

Not sure of the reason for the hostility. Conditions are quickly improving for a majority of the area.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not sure of the reason for the hostility. Conditions are quickly improving for a majority of the area.

nothing hostile about it - just pointing out a fact - MT. Holly Mets gave that as a reason why the watch hasn't been issued yet further north - I am sure if they find evidence of what you are saying they will extend the watches further north

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

nothing hostile about it - just pointing out a fact - MT. Holly Mets gave that as a reason why the watch hasn't been issued yet further north - I am sure if they find evidence of what you are saying they will extend the watches further north

I don't think anyone is saying that the greatest threat is up this way as it's clearly been to our South for the last day. The line is starting to show signs of imporving as it approaches Lancaster. We'll have to see if we can get unstable enough to get more juice into the line. 

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
225 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

PAC011-017-029-077-091-095-012000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170301T2000Z/
Berks PA-Montgomery PA-Lehigh PA-Bucks PA-Chester PA-Northampton PA-
225 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EST
FOR BERKS...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...LEHIGH...NORTHWESTERN BUCKS...
NORTHERN CHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

At 225 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Shoemakersville to near Reamstown, moving east at 60
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Fleetwood, Shoemakersville and Lenhartsville around 230 PM EST.
  Kutztown, Topton, Elverson, Lyons and New Morgan around 235 PM
  EST.
  Birdsboro and Claussville around 240 PM EST.
  Allentown, Emmaus, Ancient Oaks, Cedarville, Coffeetown,
  Zionsville and Pughtown around 245 PM EST.
  Pottstown, Northampton, Royersford, Bechtelsville and
  Gilbertsville around 250 PM EST.
  Bethlehem, Collegeville, Trappe, Schwenksville, Bally, Steuben,
  Lehigh University and Spring Mount around 255 PM EST.
  East Greenville, Green Lane and Geryville around 300 PM EST.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Harleysville, West Lawn, Boyertown, West Reading, Pottsgrove, Lorane,
Kenhorst, Hokendauqua, South Pottstown and Thorndale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This severe thunderstorm may contain little or no lightning. Do not
wait until you hear thunder before taking cover.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 7549 3998 7582 4000 7597 4004 7593
      4011 7594 4014 7588 4032 7616 4033 7616
      4051 7606 4063 7596 4076 7535 4025 7534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 255DEG 57KT 4050 7594 4018 7612
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282  
WUUS51 KPHI 011945  
SVRPHI  
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-NJC001-009-011-012045-  
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0020.170301T1945Z-170301T2045Z/  
 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
245 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SUSSEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE...  
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...  
KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE...  
SOUTHEASTERN CAROLINE COUNTY IN EASTERN MARYLAND...  
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  
CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  
CAPE MAY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  
 
* UNTIL 345 PM EST  
 
* AT 244 PM EST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM CLAYTON TO NEAR SANDTOWN TO NEAR DENTON TO  
WINDYHILL, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.   

 

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

282  
WUUS51 KPHI 011945  
SVRPHI  
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-NJC001-009-011-012045-  
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0020.170301T1945Z-170301T2045Z/  
 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
245 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SUSSEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE...  
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...  
KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE...  
SOUTHEASTERN CAROLINE COUNTY IN EASTERN MARYLAND...  
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  
CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  
CAPE MAY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  
 
* UNTIL 345 PM EST  
 
* AT 244 PM EST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM CLAYTON TO NEAR SANDTOWN TO NEAR DENTON TO  
WINDYHILL, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.   

 

The part of the line is much stronger than the northern part coming towards our area

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