Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Yeah something big like the May 1998 or Labor Day 1998 outbreaks or the microburst we had a few Septembers ago. But even then with the September 2010 event I don't think we were in an enhanced or moderate risk. Not even sure if a watch was issued that day. I remember the squall line blowing up over Jersey and then really going to town once it crossed into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I bet on average it's less than that. Even so, we usually do our best when the overall risk isn't that high. Look at how much damage there was in certain areas on Saturday and the highest probability from SPC didn't exceed 15%. Is 15% slight risk or enhanced? I was thinking something like 5% is slight, 15% is enhanced and 30% is moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: But even then with the September 2010 event I don't think we were in an enhanced or moderate risk. Not even sure if a watch was issued that day. I remember the squall line blowing up over Jersey and then really going to town once it crossed into the city. Yeah one of the most widespread severe outbreaks for our area. I think the Labor Day 1998 outbreak was bigger though personally because there was an F2 tornado about 2 miles from me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Yeah one of the most widespread severe outbreaks for our area. I think the Labor Day 1998 outbreak was bigger though personally because there was an F2 tornado about 2 miles from me lol. Well 98 was a long lived derecho. Something very rare for these parts. A tornado hit my town as well though I wasn't living there are the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Is 15% slight risk or enhanced? I was thinking something like 5% is slight, 15% is enhanced and 30% is moderate. 15% is slight risk. 30% is enhanced. They used to put 30% at slight risk too, but that caused confusion. Moderate risk starts at 45%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Here is one moderate risk day that actually worked out pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Well 98 was a long lived derecho. Something very rare for these parts. A tornado hit my town as well though I wasn't living there are the time. So glad this has its own wiki page! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_State_Labor_Day_derechos The New York State Labor Day Derechos were two derecho events that occurred on Labor Day, September 7, 1998. One derecho moved through northern and central New York state, and the other would start in southeastern Michigan and move through northeastern Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Long Island. Contents [hide] 1Syracuse Labor Day derecho 2New York City Labor Day derecho 3See also 4References 5External links Syracuse Labor Day derecho[edit] Doppler radar animation of the Syracuse Labor Day derecho The northernmost derecho (dubbed the Syracuse Labor Day Derecho and referred to locally as the Labor Day Storm), got its start in northwestern New York just before midnight on September 7 after several thunderstorm cells coming from Ontarioconverged to become a bow echo. It quickly moved southeastward through New York. Some of the worst damage occurred atRochester, Syracuse, and Utica. Three people were killed, two of them at the New York State Fairgrounds in Syracuse. An 89-mph (140-km/h) wind gust was recorded at the Rochester airport and a 77-mph (128-km/h) gust was recorded at the Syracuse airport. Winds peaked at 115 mph (192 km/h). Tens of thousands of trees were blown down. Embedded within this derecho was a supercell thunderstorm, which produced an extensive damage path from the Syracuse area, through the northern suburbs of Albany, and into western Vermont. Lightning with this particular storm was reported by many in its path as extreme, creating twilight conditions in Rochester, and daylight conditions on its rampage down the Mohawk Valley. The constant lightning was striking as many as 10–20 times per second. Damage was estimated at $130 million. Many in the region were without electricity for over a week. New York City Labor Day derecho[edit] Map of the Labor Day Derechos (courtesy of NOAA) As the Syracuse Derecho moved into New England, a new derecho started developing in southeastern Michigan at around 4 A.M. EDT and followed a track just to the south of the first one. The derecho raced through northeastern Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Jersey and ended up in New York in the mid-afternoon hours. Four people were killed and 62 were injured, mainly in the New Jersey and the New York City area, but damage also extended east to Long Island and Southwestern Connecticut. Thousands of trees were blown down and about 100 boats were overturned. Over 300,000 customers lost power and power was not restored until five days after the event. Four smalltornadoes were spawned by this storm, including an F2 tornado in Lynbrook, New York, that caused 6 injuries and $1 million in damage.[1] See also[edit] List of derecho events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 15z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Here is one moderate risk day that actually worked out pretty well. I confuse this one with the September 2010 outbreak sometimes, what was the difference between the two? Two years apart and in the same month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 15% is slight risk. 30% is enhanced. They used to put 30% at slight risk too, but that caused confusion. Moderate risk starts at 45%. Thanks, multiples of 15- that should be easy to remember lol. I remember that with precipitation, once it gets to 30% you start taking it seriously. Same here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Plainfield's 1998 Tornado *Plainfield's tornado hit on LABOR DAY 1998. Hundreds of trees were downed -- 125 city trees among them -- many damaging homes and cars. Sections of the city were without power for days as crews -- including mutual assistance from surrounding communities -- worked to clear the streets and get power restored. Here are two pictures: (Above) A large tree hit the home of longtime community activist Al Jackson at West 9th Street and Central Avenue. (Above) Tree was uprooted and fell across Central Avenue between Stelle Avenue and Randolph Road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Clearing rapidly approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Plainfield's 1998 Tornado *Plainfield's tornado hit on LABOR DAY 1998. Hundreds of trees were downed -- 125 city trees among them -- many damaging homes and cars. Sections of the city were without power for days as crews -- including mutual assistance from surrounding communities -- worked to clear the streets and get power restored. Here are two pictures: (Above) A large tree hit the home of longtime community activist Al Jackson at West 9th Street and Central Avenue. (Above) Tree was uprooted and fell across Central Avenue between Stelle Avenue and Randolph Road. Wow that was a lot of damage. Thousands of trees down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Clearing rapidly approaching Still have a low stratus deck in place in my area. From webcams it looks like it is beginning to thin out in places not far to my south and west on the other side of Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Good luck taking that over the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 I was 13 at the time but I do remember damage everywhere in Lynbrook in 1998 from the tornado. I don't think we've had a thunderstorm like that since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 You can see where the breaks are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Sun is coming out. 61. I expect a spike in the next 30-60 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: You can see where the breaks are right now. Wow look at that difference of 15 degrees over a short distance on the north Jersey shore.....67 to 52. We have 52 here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: I was 13 at the time but I do remember damage everywhere in Lynbrook in 1998 from the tornado. I don't think we've had a thunderstorm like that since then. It went right down Merrick Road and Sunrise Highway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Sun starting to peek out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Considerably brighter but no sun yet. Temps back on the rebound. 61F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Can't even tell I have the lightning layer turned on. Pretty weak stuff. https://gyazo.com/5a2e5f63fefc14008bc1aa52a88780f6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Sun starting to poke through the clouds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Can't even tell I have the lightning layer turned on. Pretty weak stuff. https://gyazo.com/5a2e5f63fefc14008bc1aa52a88780f6 Give it some time, approaching some stronger SBCAPE now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Suns out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Sun breaking through in NW Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Suns out here Yup suns out here too and temps are responding very quickly. Jumped 3 degrees in about 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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