swamplover56 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Crazy downpour on my way to work on route 24 around Morristown had blinding rain for a few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 MD to our Southwest. Seems like that's the area to watch. The mean flow is out of the Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 First round is going to miss central and south jersey where temps are already in the mid 60s. Still a stubborn marine layer along the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Hrrr showing broken line over the usual spots in south central PA south consolidating into a nasty line from just south of i-78 and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 We are getting more thunder with the next batch of 35dbz echos nearing Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Lots of thunder and lightning with this cell over union county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 29 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: First round is going to miss central and south jersey where temps are already in the mid 60s. Still a stubborn marine layer along the immediate coast. It's pretty apparent it won't be anywhere near as warm as it was last week here. Still suck in the low 50s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Another cell over somerset county headed this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just had a loud rumble of thunder. Some on and off rain, but nothing too heavy yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Paragon said: It's pretty apparent it won't be anywhere near as warm as it was last week here. Still suck in the low 50s here. The warm front is overhead. Once this last batch of convection moves out we should get some breaks in the clouds and temps should sore quickly. As you can see some nice clearing is opening up over Central PA and that should continue to push East ahead of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: The warm front is overhead. Once this last batch of convection moves out we should get some breaks in the clouds and temps should sore quickly. As you can see some nice clearing is opening up over Central PA and that should continue to push East ahead of the cold front. That would be really nice to get, but I'm wondering if we get as much clearing as we had the two days last week that we were close to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: That would be really nice to get, but I'm wondering if we get as much clearing as we had the two days last week that we were close to 70. The latest HRRR has NYC topping off at 71 degrees around 19-20z with most of Central and Southern NJ into the mid 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 The latest HRRR has a wicked sqaull line from about Morristown and points South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: The latest HRRR has NYC topping off at 71 degrees around 19-20z with most of Central and Southern NJ into the mid 70's. LGA is already at 61 with a tstorm, so I think they can get there pretty easily. Further east will probably fall short, but as long as the sun comes out it'll still feel very warm with all that high humidity out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: LGA is already at 61 with a tstorm, so I think they can get there pretty easily. Further east will probably fall short, but as long as the sun comes out it'll still feel very warm with all that high humidity out there. Well I guess it depends on where you are. If you're out on Long Island I would definitly temper my expectations, although at least you have a chance given the Southwest flow should keep the ocean influince at minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Meh. Sun is out at the shore. Wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Well I guess it depends on where you are. If you're out on Long Island I would definitly temper my expectations, although at least you have a chance given the Southwest flow should keep the ocean influince at minimum. Yeah- I'm on the very SW part of Nassau County, it's misty here and 52 degrees so a bit cooler than the rest of you guys. We get our warmest/hottest weather on W and NW winds in the summer. SW winds still get this area to 90 or a little higher in the summer by the time the ocean has heated up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Meh. Sun is out at the shore. Wasn't expecting that. Why is that meh? It's better for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Why is that meh? It's better for later. Bc I literally just got back from Florida and this is a cruel tease to later this spring lol. Sun is drifting in and out of the marine layer low clouds. Inland should clear quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Bc I literally just got back from Florida and this is a cruel tease to later this spring lol. Sun is drifting in and out of the marine layer low clouds. Inland should clear quickly. You should have been here last weekend when it was pushing 75 degress. Felt like the middle of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: You should have been here last weekend when it was pushing 75 degress. Felt like the middle of May. I was enjoying record air temps in Florida around Tampa Bay and a gulf hovering around 73 degrees:). Also, spc just increased for potential to 5% from i78 on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said: I was enjoying record air temps in Florida around Tampa Bay and a gulf hovering around 73 degrees:). Also, spc just increased for potential to 5% from i78 on south. Yeah, enhanced risk up to about TTN now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 That enhanced risk seems to be getting closer and closer, though the moderate risk is now gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: That enhanced risk seems to be getting closer and closer, though the moderate risk is now gone. That moderate risk was for Southern KY and Northern TN where the line is already through. We weren't getting into that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That moderate risk was for Southern KY and Northern TN where the line is already through. We weren't getting into that anyway. Yeah I wouldn't expect anything like that up here until May at the earliest lol. I wish they'd go with percentages, I still get confused with the terminology sometimes- what's the percentages of slight, enhanced and moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yeah I wouldn't expect anything like that up here until May at the earliest lol. We almost never get into moderate risk. Maybe once a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yeah I wouldn't expect anything like that up here until May at the earliest lol. I wish they'd go with percentages, I still get confused with the terminology sometimes- what's the percentages of slight, enhanced and moderate? Eh the last few times we've been in a moderate risk we've busted pretty badly. You usually won't see that up here unless we have a very hot airmass in place with an usually strong cold front approaching or in the case of a highly rare EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: We almost never get into moderate risk. Maybe once a year Yeah something big like the May 1998 or Labor Day 1998 outbreaks or the microburst we had a few Septembers ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Eh the last few times we've been in a moderate risk we've busted pretty badly. You usually won't see that up here unless we have a very hot airmass in place with an usually strong cold front approaching or in the case of a highly rare EML. sounds like a deal you'd usually see in August or September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: We almost never get into moderate risk. Maybe once a year I bet on average it's less than that. Even so, we usually do our best when the overall risk isn't that high. Look at how much damage there was in certain areas on Saturday and the highest probability from SPC didn't exceed 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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