psv88 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: New day 2 wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: wow... Look how fierce the LLJ is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: To be fair, using the definition of a microburst it really couldn't be the same one. That said, this is the first I'm hearing of microburst involved with Saturdays storms around here. It appeared to me that everything was straight line winds. When I had the microburst in September of 2014 there was a classic debris pattern of trees, fences, etc (even a cornfield) blown outward from the center in about a one mile diameter. As for a gas grill, for me at least, I've found that a concrete block on the shelf underneath next to the tank has worked well as an anchor over the years. Here is some good reading. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/derechos/derecho_bowecho.html A section from the above link. As long as there are new thunderstorm cells forming on the gust front as it advances, replacing the older dissipating cells, the cold pool and rear inflow air will continue. Also, all along the leading edge of the bow echo, thunderstorms may be producing downbursts and microbursts. About one half (46%) of bow echoes begin as unorganized thunderstorms; 30% form from squall lines, and about one-quarter (24%) from supercell thunderstorms. If the bow echo (or series of bow echoes) progresses more than 250 miles (400 kilometers) with widespread wind gusts 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater, then the bow echo is classified as a derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I wish I could post the Euro maps. We're right near the right exit region of a 70-80kt jet max. That's why some of these soundings are showing a ridiculous amount of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I share the same hidden concerns as the SPC right now with regards to expanding the ENH risk to the NE. IF we have too much steady precip with lingering cloud cover in the AM and early afternoon hours, I think that expectations should be tempered. Though, if we get actual convection that can lay down some boundaries along with some clearing to raise the instability to levels we were seeing on the NAM last night, then I think the upper-end potential may be realized with some larger hail, isolated tornadoes, and damaging wind. Point is, this is going to be very heavily based on nowcasting so I don't want to hear bust calls before the event is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Euro looks a lot better for SE PA and SNJ based on the severe parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: I share the same hidden concerns as the SPC right now with regards to expanding the ENH risk to the NE. IF we have too much steady precip with lingering cloud cover in the AM and early afternoon hours, I think that expectations should be tempered. Though, if we get actual convection that can lay down some boundaries along with some clearing to raise the instability to levels we were seeing on the NAM last night, then I think the upper-end potential may be realized with some larger hail, isolated tornadoes, and damaging wind. Point is, this is going to be very heavily based on nowcasting so I don't want to hear bust calls before the event is underway. I've noticed that the models have slowed down the progression of the warm front, so their is a risk that we don't get warm sectored in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I've noticed that the models have slowed down the progression of the warm front, so their is a risk that we don't get warm sectored in time. Looks like the ECMWF continues that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I have a flight Thursday morning at 9. Is this out of here by then? (I know the official forecasts say that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Another decrease in SBCAPE on the 18z NAM. Yesterday we were looking at 1250-2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and now it's more along the lines of 500-750 j/kg. I'm not sure what the issue is, as the model still has the area around 70 degrees with dew points into the 60's. And it looks like we should be dry for most of the day, as the morning activity is now more focused South of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 57 minutes ago, North and West of Town said: I have a flight Thursday morning at 9. Is this out of here by then? (I know the official forecasts say that) Long gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Looks like we are getting an early start to today's events. I am getting lightning and thunder now with the approach of the first area of rain. The lightning is associated with the 40 dbz echos near Allentown, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Looks like we are getting an early start to today's events. I am getting lightning and thunder now with the approach of the first area of rain. The lightning is associated with the 40 dbz echos near Allentown, PA. Good amount of elevated instability with this activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Decent amount of lightning with the approaching activity over NE PA and NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Some heavy downpours with this first batch of convection as it moves into an area of elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: Some heavy downpours with this first batch of convection as it moves into an area of elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates. HRRR drops over an inch of rain along the track of the heaviest band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: HRRR drops over an inch of rain along the track of the heaviest band. I saw that. You can see the intensity of the rainfall increasing as it moves into the area of better instability aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: I saw that. You can see the intensity of the rainfall increasing as it moves into the area of better instability aloft. PWAT's are approaching 1.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just had some nice rolling thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: PWAT's are approaching 1.2" It looks like this first batch got further north than the HRRR was showing a few hours ago with stronger WAA further north than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 New City---couple of rumbles and it sounds like some hail,,,,,,dog currently under bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks like this first batch got further north than the HRRR was showing a few hours ago with stronger WAA further north than forecast. Well that's a good sign considering that the HRRR is really far South with the afternoon activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Well that's a good sign considering that the HRRR is really far South with the afternoon activity. The storms over SW PA looks like the ones to watch for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: Some heavy downpours with this first batch of convection as it moves into an area of elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates. That's right over my other home in Carbon County (just north of where it says Lehighton.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 The new HRRR is much better up here for the afternoon round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 This first round gave me just under a tenth so far. The afternoon line looks pretty interesting. 56° and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Thunder here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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