dmillz25 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Could be a bigger threat of severe weather with impact even to the coast due to less of a marine influence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 I'm really liking this one. More instability and shear to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Tracking two severe threats in a week...in February lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 this is an extremely impressive sounding for this area on march 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 good inflow - 50 - 60 knot winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 SPC already has most of the area in a marginal day 3 risk with SW areas in a slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 February is the new NE severe season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 The 18z NAM is indicating 0-3km helicity in the 400-600 range with a max right over the area on Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Have to watch the warm frontal passage early Wednesday morning as well. The area has done well historically with early morning warm frontal passages and the models are indicating a good amount of instability around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Indeed, we sometimes get tornadoes with early morning warm frontal passages, even in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Jason WX said: February is the new NE severe season lol. I want to see it like it is in the Plains, a tornado warning quickly followed by a blizzard warning- all from the same storm I wonder if that's ever happened here? Or at least a severe thunderstorm warning quickly followed by a winter storm warning? Or any of the above combo lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Upton and Mt.Holly are taking note. HWO posted for much of the region minus far eastern areas. (although still a special marine HWO even for eastern LI waters) This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Thunderstorms forming in an unseasonably mild air mass in advance of a strong cold front could produce damaging winds Wednesday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 I hope someone else gets the brunt... no offense lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I hope someone else gets the brunt... no offense lol You knew a pretty serious squall line was coming through, surprised you didn't take better precautions as far as outside furniture is concerned. I know that I always make sure that anything that can easily become airborn is stored and things like patio tables and such I tie down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 the gfs has us getting 50 kt gusts regardless of any convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I hope someone else gets the brunt... no offense lol I've felt that way before, a yard covered in debris that takes days to clean up gets old quick. At least there's no green leaves to deal with yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: You knew a pretty serious squall line was coming through, surprised you didn't take better precautions as far as outside furniture is concerned. I know that I always make sure that anything that can easily become airborn is stored and things like patio tables and such I tie down. I didn't realize a 12 burner 200lbs grill was "easily" made airborn. also Idk what your talking about furniture precautions? I didn't have any furniture damaged or outside to begin with.... it was my grill, back patio railing, a piece of siding, and chimney cap... not one of those could have been prevented or stored "somewhere else" lol... about 10 miles to my SW there was a 6 plane pile-up from the same microburst tossing small airplanes around like toys... idk what tying my grill down woulda done even if I had thought there was a chance it could get tossed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 50 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I've felt that way before, a yard covered in debris that takes days to clean up gets old quick. At least there's no green leaves to deal with yet. Spent the last 2 days off from work fixing everything, replaced grill already too...def don't wanna deal with it back to back though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I didn't realize a 12 burner 200lbs grill was "easily" made airborn. also Idk what your talking about furniture precautions? I didn't have any furniture damaged or outside to begin with.... it was my grill, back patio railing, a piece of siding, and chimney cap... not one of those could have been prevented or stored "somewhere else" lol... about 10 miles to my SW there was a 6 plane pile-up from the same microburst tossing small airplanes around like toys... idk what tying my grill down woulda done even if I had thought there was a chance it could get tossed... We lost our chimney cap in the wild 2/25/16 overnight storm-still can't figure out how it blew off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We lost our chimney cap in the wild 2/25/16 overnight storm-still can't figure out how it blew off. Same here... I have a wood stove, so it's designed to prevent backflip in strong winds and backdrafting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I apologize for this question lol... I like to do lightning photography. Can anyone comment on the lightning threat especially at night? I know much of this will come down to, potentially, discrete cells. Wondering if you wizards can gleam any info from soundings or the setup as to whether I should look to get my tripod and camera out somewhere Wednesday night. Thanks in advance for any discussion you can provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 13 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I didn't realize a 12 burner 200lbs grill was "easily" made airborn. also Idk what your talking about furniture precautions? I didn't have any furniture damaged or outside to begin with.... it was my grill, back patio railing, a piece of siding, and chimney cap... not one of those could have been prevented or stored "somewhere else" lol... about 10 miles to my SW there was a 6 plane pile-up from the same microburst tossing small airplanes around like toys... idk what tying my grill down woulda done even if I had thought there was a chance it could get tossed... To be fair, using the definition of a microburst it really couldn't be the same one. That said, this is the first I'm hearing of microburst involved with Saturdays storms around here. It appeared to me that everything was straight line winds. When I had the microburst in September of 2014 there was a classic debris pattern of trees, fences, etc (even a cornfield) blown outward from the center in about a one mile diameter. As for a gas grill, for me at least, I've found that a concrete block on the shelf underneath next to the tank has worked well as an anchor over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 When was the last time MGJ had a 69 mph gust? https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMGJ/2017/2/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Orange+County&req_state=NY&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=12549&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: When was the last time MGJ had a 69 mph gust? https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMGJ/2017/2/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Orange+County&req_state=NY&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=12549&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999 Could've been the microburst on 9/6/14 I'm referring to but not certain. My station recorded at 43mph gust that day which is the highest I've ever recorded in my protected location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Several years ago we had a strong front pass through in early April. It snowed like crazy for about 15 minutes and the wind gust were insane. My grill rolled and was tossed with quite a bit of force from one side of my deck to the other and knocked out the entire side railing to my deck. I do try to live and learn and since then I keep the wheels from my grill attached with bungy cords to my deck so unless the deck itself is taken air born the grill now stays where it's suppose to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 LOL 3k NAM sounding for CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Jason WX said: LOL 3k NAM sounding for CNJ. That is nutty. Great lapse rates, impressive cape for the time of year, nice hodo, favorable LCL, lots of shear. If it weren't March 1st, I'd unreservedly say all systems go. Even so, definitely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: To be fair, using the definition of a microburst it really couldn't be the same one. That said, this is the first I'm hearing of microburst involved with Saturdays storms around here. It appeared to me that everything was straight line winds. When I had the microburst in September of 2014 there was a classic debris pattern of trees, fences, etc (even a cornfield) blown outward from the center in about a one mile diameter. As for a gas grill, for me at least, I've found that a concrete block on the shelf underneath next to the tank has worked well as an anchor over the years. I had a full propane tank attached and sitting under too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 New day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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