SmokeEater Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: tornado warned storm near Paron, AR, looking more impressive, increased rotation Funnel report with that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Iowa...northern Illinois...northwestern Indiana...and southwestern Michigan Concerning...Tornado Watch 42... Valid 282324Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 42 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will continue across portions of Tornado Watch 42 this evening. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has organized across northern Illinois late this afternoon on the nose of a stout 850-700-mb jet. A 21Z sounding from Lincoln, IL indicated a strongly veering with height low-level wind profile, topped by steep lapse rates in the approximate 850-650-mb layer, which is fostering vigorous updraft accelerations in these storms. Additionally, low-level storm-relative helicity is maximized in the vicinity of a warm front across northern Illinois currently. As a result, several supercells continue to evolve eastward across the area, with recent reports of a large tornado in eastern La Salle / western Grundy counties. As these cells move east towards northwestern Indiana and Lake Michigan, cooler surface temperatures and lower dew points may favor some slight weakening of these cells and/or less organized storm modes. However, any organized, rotating updraft may be able to sustain itself even in a weakly stable low-level environment, due to a strong upward pressure perturbation gradient force. Moreover, some upscale growth of cells into small bowing segments may yield an attendant damaging-wind threat with these storms as they progress east. ..Picca.. 02/28/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Possibly a big TDS near Washburn, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 On the ground now near Washburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 minute ago, SmokeEater said: On the ground now near Washburn. Yep... Fairly large tornado. Believe they are discussing this more so in OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Both cells, the cell in Saline County and the cell near Pinnacle Mountain are both ramping up rapidly and LIT is incredibly concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Significant supercell that is tornado warned passing to the northwest of Little Rock AR, heading for where else, Vilonia AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Nasty storm... Wouldn't be surprised to see its rotation really ramp up soon, very well organized storm on radar. The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southern Faulkner County in central Arkansas... Northeastern Pulaski County in central Arkansas... * Until 645 PM CST * At 554 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Mayflower, or near Maumelle, moving northeast at 40 mph. This dangerous storm will cross interstate 40 near Mayflower... stay out of its path! HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Conway... Little Rock AFB... Vilonia... Mayflower... Olmstead... Roland in Pulaski County... Morgan... Gibson... Marche... Holland... Hamlet... Saltillo... Macon... Otto... Cato... Palarm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 The lead cell is starting to be absorbed by the cell behind it. We'll see what happens, but the tornado threat is probably low at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 01z outlooks actually expands the moderate risk westward/10% hatched tornado probs with the expectation of mid level cooling leading to new development overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 LIT is worried the TOR warned cell moving into Searcy is actually stronger than shown due to so much heavy rain and very large in the other cell attenuating the beam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, andyhb said: 01z outlooks actually expands the moderate risk westward/10% hatched tornado probs with the expectation of mid level cooling leading to new development overnight. Any discrete or semi-discrete storm that were to develop over SE KS/SW MO would have a solid shot at producing a tornado... VAD at SGF is pretty impressive in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Pretty good convergence along the front in SE KS now, wouldn't be surprised to see storms start firing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Tornado watch issued for all of NE OK: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/mobile.php?vtec=2017-O-NEW-KTSA-TO-A-0047 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Storms now developing from around Ardmore, OK up towards McAlester, OK. Not severe yet, but they are in a potent environment. EDIT: storm between Ada and McAlester just went severe warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Cell interaction is about to take place in the Joplin vicinity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Pretty tame when they came through here. Pittsburg, KS was getting very strong winds way out ahead of the storms, so I'm not sure if they gusted themselves out or what. Maybe a case of the shear being too strong for the instability that was present? Maybe the cold front undercut them, not sure, but sure glad it wasn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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