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Feb. 28 Severe Wx Event


bjc0303

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Mesoscale Discussion 0220
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Iowa...northern
   Illinois...northwestern Indiana...and southwestern Michigan

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 42...

   Valid 282324Z - 010100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 42 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and
   damaging winds will continue across portions of Tornado Watch 42
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has organized across northern
   Illinois late this afternoon on the nose of a stout 850-700-mb jet.
   A 21Z sounding from Lincoln, IL indicated a strongly veering with
   height low-level wind profile, topped by steep lapse rates in the
   approximate 850-650-mb layer, which is fostering vigorous updraft
   accelerations in these storms. Additionally, low-level
   storm-relative helicity is maximized in the vicinity of a warm front
   across northern Illinois currently. As a result, several supercells
   continue to evolve eastward across the area, with recent reports of
   a large tornado in eastern La Salle / western Grundy counties.

   As these cells move east towards northwestern Indiana and Lake
   Michigan, cooler surface temperatures and lower dew points may favor
   some slight weakening of these cells and/or less organized storm
   modes. However, any organized, rotating updraft may be able to
   sustain itself even in a weakly stable low-level environment, due to
   a strong upward pressure perturbation gradient force. Moreover, some
   upscale growth of cells into small bowing segments may yield an
   attendant damaging-wind threat with these storms as they progress
   east.

   ..Picca.. 02/28/2017
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Nasty storm... Wouldn't be surprised to see its rotation really ramp up soon, very well organized storm on radar. 


The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Faulkner County in central Arkansas...
  Northeastern Pulaski County in central Arkansas...

* Until 645 PM CST
    
* At 554 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Mayflower, or near Maumelle, moving northeast at 
  40 mph. This dangerous storm will cross interstate 40 near 
  Mayflower... stay out of its path!

  HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Conway...                         Little Rock AFB...
  Vilonia...                        Mayflower...
  Olmstead...                       Roland in Pulaski County...
  Morgan...                         Gibson...
  Marche...                         Holland...
  Hamlet...                         Saltillo...
  Macon...                          Otto...
  Cato...                           Palarm...
 

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10 minutes ago, andyhb said:

01z outlooks actually expands the moderate risk westward/10% hatched tornado probs with the expectation of mid level cooling leading to new development overnight.

Any discrete or semi-discrete storm that were to develop over SE KS/SW MO would have a solid shot at producing a tornado... VAD at SGF is pretty impressive in the lower levels.

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Pretty tame when they came through here. Pittsburg, KS was getting very strong winds way out ahead of the storms, so I'm not sure if they gusted themselves out or what. Maybe a case of the shear being too strong for the instability that was present? Maybe the cold front undercut them, not sure, but sure glad it wasn't bad.

 

 

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