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March 2017 General Discussion


Powerball

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

HRRR shows dews dropping to below zero this afternoon over southern Iowa/northern Missouri.  Relative humidity <10% as well.  That would be nearly a 60 degree spread between temp and dew.  

That won't help fire prospects. Would've been even worse had it not rained last night.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty cool to see this much surface based CAPE in a 46/34 environment. This is southern MN.  Thanks steep lapse rates.

 

hrrr_2017030716_005_43.73--93.02.png

Probably one of the highest TT I have ever seen, 64 is pretty insanely high. Also convective temp of 47 :lmao:

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah there will probably be hail too with anything that forms, with that much instability it wouldn't shock me to get severe hail if a shower gets tall enough.

Yeah, anything even halfway decently organized would support prolific small hail production.

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59 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Wichita KS was 75/55 at 6 PM yesterday...then an hour later it was 63/11.  A nice 44-degree drop in the dew point in one hour.

High temp yesterday was 79, low this morning was 27.  Right now (2 PM central), it's 63/-3, RH 7%.

60/-11 in Dodge City.

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High wind watch for the northern tier of Ohio. I hope they take away some of my wind... Colorado doesn't need any extra.  This 40 kt wind situation on Lake Erie could create a 3ft seiche on Lake Erie, towards Buffalo, if I recall correctly.

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29 minutes ago, Anti tornado said:

Wow the gulf is warm. Should help with moisture returns... 

Frankly that plot doesn't tell you much unless you actually know the normal temperatures in the Gulf. Would be better to post an anomaly map showing the deviation from normal.

cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png

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5 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Frankly that plot doesn't tell you much unless you actually know the normal temperatures in the Gulf. Would be better to post an anomaly map showing the deviation from normal.

cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png

That is a factor that should bode well for severe prospects.

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Only teens for dews in southern Iowa compared to the subzero dews the HRRR was forecasting this morning.  Still impressive though.  

End of the HRRR has really low dews again (single digits by you).  We'll see how it does tomorrow.

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Will the Descent into Spring Continue, or Will Winter Return?

The answer is winter has returned.  Here it went from near 50 until about 8pm last night, now its in the teens with 30+ mph winds with on and off snow since this am.  Visibility is down to zero for short periods of time with blizzard conditions even though there is barely any snow on the ground.  County sheriff is advising no travel until morning.

Its almost a shame because if there was a normal snowcover on the ground around here the winds and fresh snow would make for an incredible region wide blizzard.

Now my NWS forecast is -14f friday morning.  The roller coaster of temps this winter has been frustrating. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

IWX went ahead with High Wind Warnings for Defiance, Henry, Fulton, and Williams County in NW Ohio from 9:00 AM - 6:00 PM tomorrow. Wind gusts to 60 MPH.

I'm pretty impressed by the setup for this. Lapse rates of 9.5 C°/KM with full sun in the midday and a pretty potent jetlet should allow quite a few 55+ MPH gusts, especially in that Defiance-Findlay-Lima area with all that open space

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