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March 2017 General Discussion


Powerball

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Low of 7F at my house.

I'm really starting to worry about next Sunday's possible storm.

Huge divergence between the GFS and the other models. The GFS has thunderstorms and heavy rain all the way up into 47 to 49N in Ontario. That would cancel my only large trip of the winter. The Canadian & Euro basically say, "wtf is the GFS smoking?"

 

Same day.

ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png gfs_T850a_us_31.png

 

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^Thanks for that link!

Very seasonal today with sun and a high of 28.  The days are getting so bright now with the sun angle on the snow, it's impossible without glasses..  Mid-March until late April is my least favorite time of the year because it isn't winter anymore but yet it is.  Should get above freezing tomorrow with fog and drizzle developing, but it was so beautiful today. 

IMG_1428.JPG

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43 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

^Thanks for that link!

Very seasonal today with sun and a high of 28.  The days are getting so bright now with the sun angle on the snow, it's impossible without glasses..  Mid-March until late April is my least favorite time of the year because it isn't winter anymore but yet it is.  Should get above freezing tomorrow with fog and drizzle developing, but it was so beautiful today. 

IMG_1428.JPG

Awesome pic!

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23 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Today's 12z Euro hammers Detroit at 180-192 hours.

It will change a dozen times, but the point is the roller coaster pattern is continuing. I think someone will get a bonafide snowstorm before the season is over. But LOL at the Euro. It would be the most unfulfilling 50+ inch snow season ever :lol:

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46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It will change a dozen times, but the point is the roller coaster pattern is continuing. I think someone will get a bonafide snowstorm before the season is over. But LOL at the Euro. It would be the most unfulfilling 50+ inch snow season ever :lol:

For what it's worth, the ECMWF EPS has -3C to -5C at 850mb during this time period. A big storm is not too likely, just on the principle that it's an 8 to 9 day forecast, and the GEFS don't have many indications of a big storm.

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Sam Lashley on the models at the end of his long term discussion this morning...."Safe to say the winter pattern looks to continue with alternating periods of warm and cold for the foreseeable future. No reason to deviate from consensus Superblend temps and PoPs for now. Trend is your friend when models change like a feather in the wind."

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35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Map is off here. DTW is at -1.5F for the month. Its been below normal since the morning of the 1st (we had a midnight high).

I see a tiny green speck in eastern Wayne county, but it does appear to be underdoing it.  Checking a few other spots, ORD is +1.0, IND is +1.4 and MKE is -1.4

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Becoming more interested in the wind potential for Tuesday.  The deep surface low is pretty well into Canada by then, but forecast soundings suggest extremely deep mixing into the 600-500 mb range, which is not something that happens really often.  If the models hold, then I would expect widespread wind advisories and high wind warnings.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Becoming more interested in the wind potential for Tuesday.  The deep surface low is pretty well into Canada by then, but forecast soundings suggest extremely deep mixing into the 600-500 mb range, which is not something that happens really often.  If the models hold, then I would expect widespread wind advisories and high wind warnings.

ORD at 21z Tue

nam_2017030518_051_KORD.png

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Becoming more interested in the wind potential for Tuesday.  The deep surface low is pretty well into Canada by then, but forecast soundings suggest extremely deep mixing into the 600-500 mb range, which is not something that happens really often.  If the models hold, then I would expect widespread wind advisories and high wind warnings.

Wind threat late tomorrow afternoon and night looks interesting as well.

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32 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Wind threat late tomorrow afternoon and night looks interesting as well.

Yeah, won't have anywhere near the mixing depth that it looks like we'll have on Tuesday, but there's 50+ kts just off the deck tomorrow.

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Forecast models are showing a very impressive Plains style dryline moving into western Iowa later today.  Strongest punch of dry air looks to be heading towards southwest Iowa, where dews will plummet from the mid-upper 50s to the teens in about an hour.  Much like in the high Plains, the temps will likely warm several degrees behind the dryline, as extreme mixing takes place slightly ahead of the colder air aloft.  Temps could actually approach 80 along the MO river.  With the extreme mixing, strengthening surface low to the north, and high momentum air just off the deck, there could be some very high wind gusts immediately behind that dryline IMO.  Looks like there's only wind advisories there now, but I'm thinking they're going to be needing to bump that up to a warning.

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