Jonger Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Low of 7F at my house. I'm really starting to worry about next Sunday's possible storm. Huge divergence between the GFS and the other models. The GFS has thunderstorms and heavy rain all the way up into 47 to 49N in Ontario. That would cancel my only large trip of the winter. The Canadian & Euro basically say, "wtf is the GFS smoking?" Same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Today is less chilly, but it's not warm. The warm front has pushed through far southern/southwestern Iowa, so it's well into the 60s to near 70 down there, but we're just now approaching 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 complete seasons of snowfall. From this web site http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 ^Thanks for that link! Very seasonal today with sun and a high of 28. The days are getting so bright now with the sun angle on the snow, it's impossible without glasses.. Mid-March until late April is my least favorite time of the year because it isn't winter anymore but yet it is. Should get above freezing tomorrow with fog and drizzle developing, but it was so beautiful today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Was only forecasted 50 degrees today, currently we are 56 degrees under full sun, daffodils in full bloom, along with trees budding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Chinook said: 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 complete seasons of snowfall. From this web site http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/ ugh why wont it generate 2013-14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 43 minutes ago, weatherbo said: ^Thanks for that link! Very seasonal today with sun and a high of 28. The days are getting so bright now with the sun angle on the snow, it's impossible without glasses.. Mid-March until late April is my least favorite time of the year because it isn't winter anymore but yet it is. Should get above freezing tomorrow with fog and drizzle developing, but it was so beautiful today. Awesome pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Today's 12z Euro hammers Detroit at 180-192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, Chinook said: Today's 12z Euro hammers Detroit at 180-192 hours. It will change a dozen times, but the point is the roller coaster pattern is continuing. I think someone will get a bonafide snowstorm before the season is over. But LOL at the Euro. It would be the most unfulfilling 50+ inch snow season ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 At the rate this winter has gone, it wouldn't surprise me if the GFS scored a coup. I believe Ryan Maue has tweeted that the Euro has had a cold bias all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It will change a dozen times, but the point is the roller coaster pattern is continuing. I think someone will get a bonafide snowstorm before the season is over. But LOL at the Euro. It would be the most unfulfilling 50+ inch snow season ever For what it's worth, the ECMWF EPS has -3C to -5C at 850mb during this time period. A big storm is not too likely, just on the principle that it's an 8 to 9 day forecast, and the GEFS don't have many indications of a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 8 - 9 day storm trended south.... keep going baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Sam Lashley on the models at the end of his long term discussion this morning...."Safe to say the winter pattern looks to continue with alternating periods of warm and cold for the foreseeable future. No reason to deviate from consensus Superblend temps and PoPs for now. Trend is your friend when models change like a feather in the wind." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 16 hours ago, Chinook said: Today's 12z Euro hammers Detroit at 180-192 hours. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 We finally have cold outdueling warmth in some areas, and granted it's over a whopping 4 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: We finally have cold outdueling warmth in some areas, and granted it's over a whopping 4 day period Map is off here. DTW is at -1.5F for the month. Its been below normal since the morning of the 1st (we had a midnight high). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Temps way over-achieving today due to more sunshine than expected so far. Already 63 here, and 65 at MLI. Near 60 was forecast. Record high for today at MLI is only six niner, so it's within range. EDIT: Also a high fire danger today with the strong winds, and low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Map is off here. DTW is at -1.5F for the month. Its been below normal since the morning of the 1st (we had a midnight high). I see a tiny green speck in eastern Wayne county, but it does appear to be underdoing it. Checking a few other spots, ORD is +1.0, IND is +1.4 and MKE is -1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 The HRRR is a bit off today. It never has it getting above 51 here, but we're already up to 55 with no sun so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 68 at MLI now. One degree away from tying the record. Clouds are rolling in now, so don't think they will achieve a new record today. Gave it a good shot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Becoming more interested in the wind potential for Tuesday. The deep surface low is pretty well into Canada by then, but forecast soundings suggest extremely deep mixing into the 600-500 mb range, which is not something that happens really often. If the models hold, then I would expect widespread wind advisories and high wind warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Becoming more interested in the wind potential for Tuesday. The deep surface low is pretty well into Canada by then, but forecast soundings suggest extremely deep mixing into the 600-500 mb range, which is not something that happens really often. If the models hold, then I would expect widespread wind advisories and high wind warnings. ORD at 21z Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 ORD hit 60 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ORD hit 60 today. 8th one this year. Most ever by March 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Becoming more interested in the wind potential for Tuesday. The deep surface low is pretty well into Canada by then, but forecast soundings suggest extremely deep mixing into the 600-500 mb range, which is not something that happens really often. If the models hold, then I would expect widespread wind advisories and high wind warnings. Wind threat late tomorrow afternoon and night looks interesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 32 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Wind threat late tomorrow afternoon and night looks interesting as well. Yeah, won't have anywhere near the mixing depth that it looks like we'll have on Tuesday, but there's 50+ kts just off the deck tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Forecast models are showing a very impressive Plains style dryline moving into western Iowa later today. Strongest punch of dry air looks to be heading towards southwest Iowa, where dews will plummet from the mid-upper 50s to the teens in about an hour. Much like in the high Plains, the temps will likely warm several degrees behind the dryline, as extreme mixing takes place slightly ahead of the colder air aloft. Temps could actually approach 80 along the MO river. With the extreme mixing, strengthening surface low to the north, and high momentum air just off the deck, there could be some very high wind gusts immediately behind that dryline IMO. Looks like there's only wind advisories there now, but I'm thinking they're going to be needing to bump that up to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Wednesday looks windy too, possibly windier than tomorrow. This could end up being a pretty impressive stretch of winds by the time it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Temp has risen several degrees this evening. Power of advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Been getting lots of 35-40mph gusts the last hour. Peak gust so far has been 46mph. Winds have actually backed a little bit this eve. Now a little east of due south. If we had a little more instability I'd be a bit more concerned with this line coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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