Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Following this loosely, hate to sound like a downer, but my confidence is low in anything directly for the Chicago metro. It's been cloudy, cold and windy all day in my area. I feel well south of here towards Champaign it will be a different story. As I mentioned before, destabilization is advection driven, meaning you don't need sun. With the warm front lifting into the area, the entire LOT CWA is at risk for scare.And lol at temps around 60 being cold...let alone in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, tuanis said: When's the last time the Chicago metro was under a TOR watch in February? Area, 2006. City itself, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 That right hand splitter SE of St. Louis could become the first TOR warned storm of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, tuanis said: When's the last time the Chicago metro was under a TOR watch in February? 2/16/06 was the closest February tornado to Chicago according to Tornado History Project, but that tor watch just missed Chicago to the south. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20060216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, buckeye said: ILN : Haven't seen a discussion like this in some time....just a portion: If storms come through while still somewhat elevated, the tornado threat would be reduced. However, if the boundary layer warms/saturates and allows for surface-based parcels, the tornado threat could be significant. Thus, this will be a crucial part of mesoscale analysis going through the evening. Shear profiles of this magnitude do not frequently combine with perfectly favorable low-level thermodynamics, but when they do, the results speak for themselves. This is the biggest potential threat that will have to be examined tonight into Wednesday morning -- a conditional not-just-low-end tornado threat, combined with a slightly greater level of confidence in large hail potential, and some attendant damaging wind potential as well (depending on boundary layer destabilization). ......... In terms of messaging, it is very important to get the word out that these threats will be occurring at non-standard times, continuing through the night, and quite likely into Wednesday morning (details of which are covered below). Given that there is a risk of severe weather that may be greater than just a low-end marginal event, it is crucial for people to have ways of receiving warning information during the off-typical-peak and extended hours that this severe weather may occupy. Yeah, not liking how this is shaping up; when I expect things to moderate a more balanced direction...they come out with the FD of the decade compared to the minimal version they constantly put out....concerning....and in the f-ing middle of the night? no thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: That right hand splitter SE of St. Louis could become the first TOR warned storm of the event. Was about to say this... looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tornado Warning just north of downetown Davenport, IA. Just came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 First tornado warning of the night North of Davenport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Supercell galore in eastern Iowa right now. I count 4 back to back to back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Keeping an eye on that storm WSW of Iowa City too, getting a bigger hail core and seems headed straight for Iowa City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 DVN can look out the window and see the meso on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Aside from the tornado threat, there could be some insanely large hail with these storms, the tornado watch for N IL mentions scattered apple sized hail occurrences are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 This setup kind of reminds me of January 24, 1967, albeit much less severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 Cell SSW of St. Louis is certainly developing more of an inflow-dominant/right moving supercell signature on reflectivity. Entering the more backed wind-field closer to the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Very favorable wind profile via 21z ILX sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: As I mentioned before, destabilization is advection driven, meaning you don't need sun. With the warm front lifting into the area, the entire LOT CWA is at risk for scare. And lol at temps around 60 being cold...let alone in Feb. Yeah, just need a bit more warming and if dews can get to around 60, the tor threat goes up dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 Sounding truncated on SPC page, but this is a dangerous shear environment with good deep layer moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Iowa city about to get smacked. Wouldn't be surprised to see some large hail in that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 some rotation developing near Galesburg IL (at Rio IL), as well as high reflectivity. That initial hook echo (or southwest edge of the cell) near Davenport had developed near the World's Largest Truck Stop (seriously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 http://metacommunications.com/iowa-city-360-webcam/ Webcam from downtown Iowa City showing some pea sized hail. Looks like the big hail core might miss Iowa City slightly to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Tough to see velocity due to clutter, but that cell N of the quad cities could go gangbusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 LOT should be firing off frequent mesoscale updates Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 349 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 349 PM CST Convection has been developing and steadily intensifying over eastern IA and northwest IL. Both ILX and DVN afternoon special soundings indicated a formidable capping inversion. Continued low level theta-e advection combined with increasing ascent has been gradually eroding the cap and given intensity trends, its likely storms are solidly surface based. Over our western CWA, surface obs show slightly cooler temps and slightly lower dewpoints, so current environment is possibly a bit less favorable for surface based storms now. Short range guidance continues to forecast environment to quickly improve and will likely grow increasingly favorable for maintaining storms over western IL as they move east. Given their fast movement, it is possible they could eventually outrun the better air as they get east into NE IL, but that is still a couple hours out and we`ll need to closely monitor. Given the favorable instability and extremely strong deep layer shear profiles would anticipate a continuation of the transition of this activity to supercellular. Strongest low level shear profile is over central and north central IL, with the current best co-location of most favorable low level shear and instability over north central IL, mainly south of I-88. This would suggest that in the next couple hours the highest tornado threat would exist with the storms developing from Bureau Co southwest to near Burlington, with the highest short term threat likely to spread into LaSalle and Livingston Counties. Large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado risk cannot be ruled out north of this area into Ogle and Lee Counties in the next couple hours, but the greatest area of concern appears to be LaSalle and into Livingston Counties. Extrapolation of storms moving into Bureau County suggest the threat should move into LaSalle County toward 430 PM. Izzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Chaser reported brief tornado near Toulon, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Tough to see velocity due to clutter, but that cell N of the quad cities could go gangbusters Reflectivity shows a nice RFD punch just east of McCausland with the tip of the hook just N of the Wapsi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said: Chaser reported brief tornado near Toulon, IL. Still broad rotation with that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Decent rotation SW of Tiskilwa IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2017 Author Share Posted February 28, 2017 Strong rotation aloft on tilts 2/3 from KDVN on that big cell at the head of the complex south of Princeton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Newly issued tornado warning for Folletts IA (Davenport) says spotters confirmed tornado: At 402 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Camanche, or near Clinton, moving east at 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 if that hooking supercell SW of galesburg turns a little right I'm in the bullseye north side of PIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Confirmed tornado over Comanche via new warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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