Quincy Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 12z HRRRX simulated radar prog lights up IL by 23-00z tomorrow evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 25 minutes ago, Quincy said: 12z HRRRX simulated radar prog lights up IL by 23-00z tomorrow evening: HRRRX also gets 3k CAPE into W IL. Gonna have a hard time believing that until it comes to fruition, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 New day 2 expanded north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 NCAR's WRF ensemble also hints at convection initiating well into IL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Day 2 tidbit from the Storm Prediction Center... Given the 12Z ESRL HRRR and 12Z NAM 4km suggesting a broken band of discrete storms developing from east-central MO into central and northeast IL, the enhanced severe risk area has been expanded north across to now include more of eastern MO and into central IL, with a northward expansion of the slight and marginal risks as well. Moderate instability and strengthening deep-layer and low-level shear will favor all severe hazards, with some indication for a strong tornado threat from parts of AR to southern IL along a strengthening low-level jet enhancing hodograph curvature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Jim Martin said: Wow... Important to look at the storm mode here and not just the UH tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Important to look at the storm mode here and not just the UH tracks. That said, the line would be pretty vigorous with some embedded QLCS tornadoes if any of these mesoscale models have an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: Important to look at the storm mode here and not just the UH tracks. Ah. Did not realize that. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Looks like there's a thread in the main forum, probably best to move over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 22 minutes ago, Stebo said: That said, the line would be pretty vigorous with some embedded QLCS tornadoes if any of these mesoscale models have an idea. Yeah, at least some QLCS tornado threat looks likely. As has been mentioned, models are showing pretty impressive low level shear. 0-1 km shear is pushing 50 kts on some runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 If model guidanace holds, see no reason why the SLGT isn't shifted further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Been busy today so now got my first look at the 12Z GFS. First thing I noticed was that it now has the double (secondary) low which the NAM previously highlighted. Looks like a very interesting Tuesday evening and night in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: If model guidanace holds, see no reason why the SLGT isn't shifted further north I agree. Could envision it coming north through all or most of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 This is at 6z Wednesday, which could be a problem assuming sfc/near sfc based storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 27 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: If model guidanace holds, see no reason why the SLGT isn't shifted further north Agreed, I'd move it to at least 80 in Chicago area and to 94 in southern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is at 6z Wednesday, which could be a problem assuming sfc/near sfc based storms. Those numbers are going up too run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 I agree. Could envision it coming north through all or most of LOT.Right now I'd have the northern end run from DBQ-MKE-GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 It seems pretty evident that there is going to be a QLCS initiating over Illinois around 22-0z on tomorrow night. Initially the 4K nam has a broken line transitioning into more of a squall line by 03z. However it also has a few discretes over Indiana and Ohio. Sounding below is from just south of discrete cell in Ohio. Does this seem like a realistic scenario? Is there anything to cause initation in the warm sector? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Has anyone else realized this overnight threat is 5 years to the exact time of the Leap Day Tornado Outbreak? (because we don't have a leap day this year this is the next closest). Even the same location! How similar are the two setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, Anti tornado said: It seems pretty evident that there is going to be a QLCS initiating over Illinois around 22-0z on tomorrow night. Initially the 4K nam has a broken line transitioning into more of a squall line by 03z. However it also has a few discretes over Indiana and Ohio. Sounding below is from just south of discrete cell in Ohio. Does this seem like a realistic scenario? Is there anything to cause initation in the warm sector? It seems around here at least, storms associated with the warm front often over perform. Meanwhile the main show severe threat that is suppose to occur with the cold front ends up being the dud. Just something I've noticed throughout my years of weenie wx watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 With 850 mb winds increasing toward 70+ kts tomorrow night, any organized line could have some pretty decent wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: With 850 mb winds increasing toward 70+ kts tomorrow night, any organized line could have some pretty decent wind potential. Also lead to lengthening the hodographs especially in the lowest km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 The HRRRX backed off from earlier and now doesn't have much action yet in IL at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The HRRRX backed off from earlier and now doesn't have much action yet in IL at 00z. That isolated cell WSW of St. Louis would be bad news, 18z 4 km NAM also tried to pop something there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 The temp drop Wed night looks to be incredible. We very likely will see thunderstorms and low 60s transition to a period of snow and then mid 20s by Thu morning. So much for a lamb lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 The RAP has 60 degree dewpoints up to the IA/IL/MO border area at 18z Wednesday. That is farther north than the NAM/GFS and worth watching of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 RAP is really mixing out the dewpoints in Missouri tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 4 hours ago, buckeye said: It seems around here at least, storms associated with the warm front often over perform. Meanwhile the main show severe threat that is suppose to occur with the cold front ends up being the dud. Just something I've noticed throughout my years of weenie wx watching. I can confirm the same for midwestern ON. My last severe thunderstorm in March 2012 was warm front induced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: RAP is really mixing out the dewpoints in Missouri tomorrow afternoon hints of a dry line bulge NAM has a more minor version but its there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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