SmokeEater Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, SmokeEater said: Nasty couplet near Ironton, MO. Possible TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 At this point, I think Detroit has seen more Severe Weather Watches than Winter Weather headlines (which is amazing for February). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Looks like there is some significant sidelobe contamination going on with the Ironton, MO cell via hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Only change to the SPC update expanded Moderate to include SW MO.Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: The night is young yet, only coming up on 7pm local time. I get the feeling the nocturnal threat is going to be a lot worse then now. I am very curious if the discrete cells in southern IN end up materializing as was modeled. I know last time I checked there were some crazy soundings coming out of that area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Central Illinois said: Only change to the SPC update expanded Moderate to include SW MO. Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk A little weird they didn't expand the slight north to cover the areas in watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: At this point, I think Detroit has seen more Severe Weather Watches than Winter Weather headlines (which is amazing for February). Been so busy looking at other stuff plus the storms moving in now, didn't even realize we had watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Oh, dear...looks like we are losing the warning polygon feature on NWS radars. This has happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Nice little bow coming off the lake into Berrien County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Up to 63/59 here from low 50's/40's a few hours ago. Not too concerned with the tornadic threat, should stay N and S with the better dynamics/thermo. Really am concerned about hail. Plenty of updraft potential for some significant hail as the squall line develops and moves SE through here in the wee hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Had some gusty/near severe criteria winds. The higher winds came in bursts but the whole thing was fairly prolonged. Not bad for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 This has been confirmed for about ten minutes now. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR NORTHERN WOODRUFF...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND EAST CENTRAL WHITE COUNTIES... At 731 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Augusta, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Augusta... Russell... Tupelo... McFadden... Beedeville... Weldon... Blackville... Shoffner... Ingleside... Fitzhugh... Worden... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Up to 63/59 here from low 50's/40's a few hours ago. Not too concerned with the tornadic threat, should stay N and S with the better dynamics/thermo. Really am concerned about hail. Plenty of updraft potential for some significant hail as the squall line develops and moves SE through here in the wee hours. Got some quarters here with lone cell that moved through earlier and is now well into OH. It went from nothing to efficient hail producer in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 knob lick BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 730 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 800 PM CST. * AT 730 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KNOB LICK, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: knob lick BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 730 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 800 PM CST. * AT 730 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KNOB LICK, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. I know that it is a dangerous situation but sorry, I lol'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Got some quarters here with lone cell that moved through earlier and is now well into OH. It went from nothing to efficient hail producer in no time. Nice. Saw that cell pop out of nowhere. I can handle quarters but anything bigger and my old roof is in jeopardy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Had some gusty/near severe criteria winds. The higher winds came in bursts but the whole thing was fairly prolonged. Not bad for this time of year. Also would note that courtesy of the continued strong low level flow, temps/dews are rising again here after taking a hit with the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Looks like the night for warnings from KPAH is getting underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Had some gusty/near severe criteria winds. The higher winds came in bursts but the whole thing was fairly prolonged. Not bad for this time of year. I'm surprised that aren't some power outages with gusts that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 That fatality is in the LSR now PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 652 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0445 PM TORNADO OTTAWA 41.35N 88.84W 02/28/2017 LA SALLE IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE *** 1 FATAL *** FIRE DEPARTMENT CONFIRMS ONE FATALITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Strong rotation west of Perryville, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 severe storms have been training along I-80 like crazy. I think Ottawa is under its 5th warning of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0224 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 Areas affected...Southern Indiana...western Kentucky and Tennessee...northeast Arkansas...southeast Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 41...43... Valid 010146Z - 010345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41, 43 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered supercells, some tornadic, are possible this evening from northern Arkansas into southern Illinois and Indiana. A new tornado watch is likely, replacing eastern parts of tornado watches 41 and 43. DISCUSSION...Widely spaced supercells currently persist across southeast MO and northeast AR, with strong rotation and tornadoes reported at times. These cells will continue northeastward across the MS river, where an expansive area of favorable instability and shear remain. In fact, the low-level jet is forecast to increase further, only adding to tornado favorability. Area VAD wind profiles show observed 0-1 km SRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, more than favorable for tornadic supercells given MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Other cells were beginning to form as of 0140 Z across northern AR and southern MO in between the two primary clusters. A further increase in storm coverage is possible this evening with main lifting mechanism being low-level warm advection. ..Jewell.. 03/01/2017 ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK... SGF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 724 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 .UPDATE... 720 PM Prior convection in the I-88 and I-80 corridors appear to have re-enforced subtle secondary warm front. The composite warm front/outflow boundary appears to run south of but roughly parallel to I-80. Continue to see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms developing on what appears to be the cool side of this boundary, likely due in part isentropic ascent over top this boundary. The 00z ILX sounding sampled the warm sector environment quite nicely with steep low-mid lapse rates above an inversion which is based around 850 mb. This inversion is providing for moderate to strong convective inhibition in the warm sector. Water vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving into MO/IA, which should enhance large scale ascent tonight as it over takes the cold front to our west. In the near term (next couple hours) look for continued widely scattered thunderstorm development along and north of I-80 with potential for isolated severe thunderstorms given the moderate instability and strong shear which should continue to support supercell structures. As long as storms remain on the cool side of the boundary tornado threat should be low, however surface obs show strong and gusty southerly winds in the warm sector. Until large scale ascent arrives and lifts through the cap, anticipate the warm sector to likely remain fairly free of convection. Izzi Looking ahead for later evening into overnight... Upper jet of 145-160 kt as captured by the 00Z RAOB network is punching northeastward into Missouri and western/central Illinois through the next few hours. Convection has started to blossom with this forcing for ascent ahead of the surface cold front in Missouri, and expect growth of supercell/multicell structures further northeast ahead of the front into western Illinois during the next 2-3 hours. Deep layer shear at or in excess of 60 kt favors these storms to organize, and the slightly more aligned 850-500mb flow by late evening would favor some propensity to organize into clusters or a quasi-liner structure. Convective- allowing guidance generally supports this, passing organized storms across the southern forecast area between 10 pm and 2 am. The southeast forecast area...generally along and along and south of a Peru to Gary line...has been more untapped. Surface observations in this area indicate continued gusting southerly winds ahead of the 998 mb surface low near the Quad Cities, and RAP analysis indicate the lowest 100mb of moisture is still high in this area. This indicates that CAPE from the boundary layer, or just above it, is present, with the 00Z ILX sounding indicating near 1,300 J/kg of CAPE for a modified sounding near Pontiac. So a tornado threat will be highest in this area south of a Peru to Gray line, especially south of any outflow boundaries from ongoing activity. Cannot rule out a threat further north given the surface low placement as far north as it is and if the boundary does shift further north in the wake of ongoing convection (if it weakens more). However, the 00Z DVN sounding and RAP soundings going forward indicate instability to be mainly rooted aloft further north. Certainly enough for hail, but possibly shrinking the tornado threat further north. MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 I'm now at my high temp for the day right after that line moved through. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Given the recent numerous subtle radar returns across southeast MO and northern AR really expect storm coverage to expand dramatically in that area in an hour or so as that mid-level cooling erodes the cap. Things could really explode as that forcing for ascent comes into play... The cap appears to be the only thing really holding these cells back given the truly ridiculous low-level wind field and shear as a whole as well as the anomalous thermodynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 That couplet NW of Perryville is nearly maxing out from KPAH. Edit: Big time TDS just popped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 I think Mesonet may have partially confirmed the "East Chicago Tornado Theory" from earlier 2 W East Chicago [Lake Co, IN] MESONET reports TSTM WND GST of M95 MPH at 28 Feb, 6:36 PM CST -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Mother of god that CC drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: That couplet NW of Perryville is nearly maxing out from KPAH. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 803 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017 MOC157-010215- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170301T0215Z/ PERRY MO- 803 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY... AT 802 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PERRYVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND TWO INCH HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. POWER FLASHES WERE OBSERVED AS THE STORM WAS MOVING ACROSS INTERSTATE 55 JUST NORTH OF PERRYVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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