jojo762 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 That supercell in Arkansas has actually had 4.5" hail reported. Wowzers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Multiple hailers on I-80 south of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Ottawa area going to get hit by another severe cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kansas and northern/central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 010005Z - 010200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms should increase in coverage across the region this evening, with a growing threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Cells will likely organize from portions of southeastern Kansas northeastward to west-central Illinois over the next several hours. Tornado watch issuance is likely over northern Missouri shortly. Additional watch issuance farther south is also possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Observational data early this evening suggest increasing large-scale ascent is beginning to overspread the region, with a few cells developing along surface confluence near the cold front just east of the Kansas City metro. KSGF VWP data depict a growing, clockwise-looping hodograph over the last 2-3 hours, indicating strengthening warm-air advection in response to forcing for ascent with the approaching trough. As mid-level temperatures continue to cool, thunderstorms will organize from southeastern Kansas to northern Missouri. A pool of higher surface dew points (generally in the lower 60s) currently exists across northeast OK and southeast KS, and strengthening low-level south/southwesterly flow should advect this moisture northeast through the evening. With regional soundings sampling steep mid-level lapse rates over the region, MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg should be realized from southeastern KS into central MO. Strong southwesterly 850-700-mb flow will enhance storm-relative helicity considerably, favoring low-level mesocyclogenesis in any supercellular structures that develop. While there is some uncertainty with the storm mode due to linear forcing along the front, recent convection-allowing guidance suggests that a cluster of supercells may form over the next 2 hours or so. Considering the kinematic and thermodynamic environment, any sustained supercell would be capable of tornadoes, with the potential for a strong tornado or two. These cells would shift northeast from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri through the evening and into the overnight hours. ..Picca.. 03/01/2017 ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Nasty cell east of KC... looks like its producing 2" hail. Incredible because T/Dt near it is 75/46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: That supercell in Arkansas has actually had 4.5" hail reported. Wowzers. Numerous reports of softball sized hail from spotters as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Streator getting smacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 The supercell moving toward Centerville MO is a beast. Intense mid-level meso with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Possible tornado near Bunker, Missouri. This is sort of in radar no-man's-land. KLSX radar shows strong rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 That tornado warned cell moving towards me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 44 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 720 PM CDT Tue Feb 28 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme eastern Kansas West-central and northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 720 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing near a cold front will offer severe hail and gusts, and an increasing tornado threat with time, while moving into strengthening moisture over the watch area. See SPC mesoscale discussion 223 for additional/initial meteorological guidance. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Knob Noster MO to 25 miles north of Kirksville MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Noticeable ramp up in winds here just ahead of the line south of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 LOT Nailed this in their last Mesoscale Discussion ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il 631 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Porter County in northwestern Indiana... Northern Lake County in northwestern Indiana... * Until 730 PM CST * At 630 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Calumet City, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Hammond, Gary, Calumet City, Portage, Merrillville, Valparaiso, East Chicago, Schererville, Hobart, Lansing, Highland, Munster, Griffith, St. John, Chesterton, Lake Station, Whiting, Porter, Burnham and Burns Harbor. Including the following interstates... Indiana I-80 between mile markers 1 and 16. Indiana I-90 between mile markers 2 and 36. Indiana I-94 between mile markers 16 and 31. Indiana I-65 between mile markers 253 and 261. This includes... Indiana University Northwest, Purdue University Calumet, Valparaiso University, Illiana Motor Speedway, Indiana Dunes State Park, and South Shore Rail Cats Baseball. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, if one is spotted, act quickly and move to a place of safety inside a sturdy structure such as a basement or small interior room. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern Illinois...and northwestern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Is SPC going to bring central/southern IN into this rodeo at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Is SPC going to bring central/southern IN into this rodeo at some point?I'd say it's gonna be awhile unless something really develops for Central INSent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: LOT Nailed this in their last Mesoscale Discussion ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il 631 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Porter County in northwestern Indiana... Northern Lake County in northwestern Indiana... * Until 730 PM CST * At 630 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Calumet City, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Hammond, Gary, Calumet City, Portage, Merrillville, Valparaiso, East Chicago, Schererville, Hobart, Lansing, Highland, Munster, Griffith, St. John, Chesterton, Lake Station, Whiting, Porter, Burnham and Burns Harbor. Including the following interstates... Indiana I-80 between mile markers 1 and 16. Indiana I-90 between mile markers 2 and 36. Indiana I-94 between mile markers 16 and 31. Indiana I-65 between mile markers 253 and 261. This includes... Indiana University Northwest, Purdue University Calumet, Valparaiso University, Illiana Motor Speedway, Indiana Dunes State Park, and South Shore Rail Cats Baseball. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, if one is spotted, act quickly and move to a place of safety inside a sturdy structure such as a basement or small interior room. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern Illinois...and northwestern Indiana. Headed this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 St Louis metro and surrounding area has had about 29 severe storm reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 sort of perplexed why the hailer twins in AR so far are just hailers......LLJ increasing even more now though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Severe T-Storm Watch for Southern MI/Northern IN/ NW Ohio until 4 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Probably a tornado in East Chicago 6:36 CST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 As I said earlier CIN looks to be a problem. Andy mentioned vertical pressure gradient force earlier but it just seems the spin has been deteriorating recently on these storms. It'll be interesting to see if the strengthening LLJ can erode that later tonight Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Looks to be some cells firing in West Central AR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, nwohweather said: As I said earlier CIN looks to be a problem. Andy mentioned vertical pressure gradient force earlier but it just seems the spin has been deteriorating recently on these storms. It'll be interesting to see if the strengthening LLJ can erode that later tonight Yeah they usually can maintain for awhile into it, but that won't last if the BL becomes stable (or at least they won't be surface based). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 00z ILX sounding has some pretty outrageous shear through the whole column. Storm NE of Centerville, MO could really use a tornado warning right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 45 knots in the 0-1 layer is more than enough for some sig. tornadoes. Not surprised by the damage reports in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 The night is young yet, only coming up on 7pm local time. I get the feeling the nocturnal threat is going to be a lot worse then now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Nasty couplet near Ironton, MO. Possible TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: The night is young yet, only coming up on 7pm local time. I get the feeling the nocturnal threat is going to be a lot worse then now. Will catch a lot of people off guard if the threat materializes, as most are used to the severe threat winding down after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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