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Feb 28th - March 1st Severe Weather Outbreak


andyhb

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Just now, nwohweather said:

Shocking what we're seeing out of these storms with so much CIN currently in the area. Does concern me a bit as this event evolves of it fully reaching its potential but so far these tornadoes mean business

My guess is the WAA has eroded some of this. Also the vertical PPGF with these storms is probably allowing them to continue downstream even into rather stable air. Joey Picca noted this in his MCD.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  

554 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017    

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A    

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...   SOUTHERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...   NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...    
* UNTIL 645 PM CST    

* AT 554 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO   WAS LOCATED NEAR MAYFLOWER, OR NEAR MAUMELLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT   40 MPH. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL CROSS INTERSTATE 40 NEAR   MAYFLOWER... STAY OUT OF ITS PATH!    

HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.    

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

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Watch coming for areas in the Slight and Marginal risks soon

   Mesoscale Discussion 0222
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0600 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Northern Indiana...northern Ohio...and southern
   Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 010000Z - 010130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe risk in the form of large hail
   and damaging winds will continue eastward across northern Indiana,
   far southern Lower Michigan and parts of northern Ohio tonight. A
   watch will likely be issued.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of elevated storms have developed and
   intensified over the past hour across northeast Indiana to the
   northeast of a warm front across the region. Steep mid-level lapse
   rates, modest elevated buoyancy, and ample shear through the
   cloud-bearing layer will support at least some severe hail risk this
   evening with these mostly elevated storms. Additional upstream
   storms across north-central/northeast Illinois may gradually move
   into the region later this evening, all while a warm front and
   related increasingly moist air mass develops northeastward across
   the region. This could account for at least some increasing
   near-surface-based severe risk later this evening with an increasing
   potential for damaging winds and at least some tornado risk.
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Incredible for february...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN FAULKNER AND NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES...

At 600 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Mayflower, or 7 miles north of Maumelle, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and softball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely. Storm spotters reported softball sized hail with
         this storm. This is an incredibly dangerous storm...take
         shelter or avoid this storm!

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock AFB...                Vilonia...
Mayflower...                      Olmstead...
Gibson...                         Hamlet...
Saltillo...                       Macon...
Otto...                           Cato...
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