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Feb 28th - March 1st Severe Weather Outbreak


andyhb

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

What do you mean? They issued one at 5:04... They issue them usually ever 15 minutes.


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
KENDALL...EAST CENTRAL LA SALLE AND NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTIES...

At 504 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Marseilles, moving east at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Morris around 525 PM CST.
  Minooka around 530 PM CST.

my bad...stupid Cache..tying to talk to three people at once about the Peoria warned storm and to friend in Morris

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Where I drew the red lines are where warnings or changes in warning text was issued regarding the tornado. They are doing regular updates quite well indicating that the tornado has been on the ground for the majority of that path.

16998981_472709916452767_472768896809132

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Temps/dews still in the 50s here with that Ottawa cell looking to be heading this way eventually.  Will have to see how much more of an increase we may have but still cause for concern.

I worry that this situation and ones tonight are those where kinematics outranks thermodynamics.

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missed morris

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
515 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0513 PM     TORNADO          2 NW MORRIS             41.39N 88.46W   
02/28/2017                   GRUNDY             IL   STORM CHASER      
  
            STORM CHASER REPORTS VERY LARGE TORNADO 2 MILES NORTHWEST  
            OF MORRIS.  

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

can you post close ups? got cousins on the SE side of chillicothe and south Rome 

Can't but you can take my word that there was a significant TDS halfway between Chillicithe and Rome. 

I highly recommend that you get radarscope btw if you don't want to rely on screencaps.

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
528 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 600 PM CST  
  
* AT 528 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WASHBURN, OR 8  
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF LACON, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

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mcd0221.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0221
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0528 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Central Arkansas into southeast Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

   Valid 282328Z - 010130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes may increase over the next few
   hours across Arkansas into southeastern Missouri, with further
   development into the lower Ohio Valley and western Tennessee later
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms continue to evolve
   across central Arkansas into southern Missouri across the open warm
   sector and driven mainly by warm advection in the low levels and
   lack of substantial capping. 

   Cells over Missouri have shown complex storm structures, with
   several splits noted on radar. This is not surprising given the
   mainly straight-line hodograph on the 20Z observed SGF sounding.
   Also evident steep lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, which
   support a severe hail threat. As these storms continue eastward,
   they will encounter a more unstable and more sheared environment
   supported by a gradually increasing low-level jet and observed axis
   of mid 60s dewpoints in place. Therefore, potential for stronger
   rotation and right-moving tornadic supercells will increase over
   time.

   To the south, 850-mb flow is a bit stronger and more backed, with a
   cluster of cells west of the Little Rock area showing mesocyclones
   at times, but nothing long-lived thus far. However, the LZK VWP as
   well as objective analysis indicate 250-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH in
   place, with an upward trend in GPS PW observations as well. The
   increasing low-level jet will further increase low-level shear this
   evening, favoring tornadic supercells. 

   Model guidance suggests increasing storm coverage spreading eastward
   across the lower Ohio Valley and western Tennessee, with a risk of
   tornadoes this evening. As such, additional tornado watches could be
   required in those areas.

   ..Jewell.. 02/28/2017


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
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