Discussion Of Our New Extreme 2000's Climate

[bluewave]

The interesting thing that several posters have noted in our threads recently is how our climate extremes began to intensify following the 97-98 global super El Nino temperature spike. The major amount of heat being released from that event on top of the background warming state seems to have tipped the scales to more extremes. For us it was the succession of mild and snowless winters in the late 90's peaking with the 01-02 non winter. Extreme summer heat was also becoming an increasing factor during these years. More impressive winter blocking also became more common especially during the 00-01, 02-03, and 03-04 winters. A winter pattern began to emerge where mild record winters were in the mix with snowy and colder ones. Also remember the Labor Day Derecho in September 1998.

2005 marked a new level of extremes across our area and the globe right as the next El Nino event added to global temperatures even further. January 2005 featured record warmth during the first half of the month rapidly shifting to record cold and snow during the second half. This was one of the biggest temperature swings that we have seen in one month. This was followed by our new warmest summer on record. Arctic temperatures began to really spike. the historic hurricane season peaked with record rainfall flooding here in October 2005.

The 05-06 winter saw more extremes with one of the warmest Januaries on record and some parts of the country experiencing a +15 temperature month. February followed by the biggest snowfall on record for NYC. The 2006-2007 El Nino was the same year of the very powerful Arctic summer dipole that set a new record low for summer sea ice. We also cant forget the April record Tax Day storm and record low pressures and rainfall for April across the area. The 06-07 winter featured more extremes from warm start to cold finish.

Our next big pick up in extremes occurred during the summer of 2009 as the next El Nino began to build. This time it was one of the few cool summers of the last 10 years with the record low AO signaling a year and a half on new record -AO readings with the historic 09-10 winter. That year the 2005 record for warmth fell in only 5 years with our new warmest summer. September 2010 featured one of the strongest severe thunderstorm events in NYC. 10-11 was another remarkable winter in only about 5 weeks from the Boxing Day Blizzard to the late January snowstorm. That summer experienced record July heat with the new 108 all time high at Newark. The 10-12 period continued and expanded on the number of above normal and top 10 warmest months.Precipitation extremes intensified with the August 2011 10"+ rainfall extreme followed by hurricane Irene a few weeks later. We were nearing the end of the heavy precip run from 02-03 to 10-11 were many years reached 50" or more.

2012 was the year that extremes got taken to a whole new level. Record winter warmth and low snowfall was followed by more heat leading up to the historic summer Arctic Sea ice decline. October 2012 was the most extreme high impact singular event we experienced in Hurricane Sandy. Record Arctic blocking resulted in a 1 in 700 year track bending back to the coast resulting in the historic amount of damage. This was followed by a record early November snowstorm only a few weeks later.

The 12-13 winter saw more extremes of warmth through December into January before the pattern turned colder with the record February blizzard. This added to our historic snowstorms around the region during the 2000's with maxes over 30". The lowest March AO on record followed and seemed to represent a regime shift from North Atlantic blocking to Pacific. A record breaking ridge retrograded across the country in July with more 100 degree temperatures. A a rare change to colder relative to previous years was in the works due to the new record blocking near the EPO region of the Pacific. 

The 13-14 winter started out snowy in December with record +30 degree temps just before Christmas. JFM featured a dramatic turn to colder with record snows continuing. 2014 was also are first cool summer since 2009 and only 2nd of the last decade. More mild temps in December 14 were followed by the extreme cold February 2015 with our first -10 or lower month since December 1989. This was also the beginning of an extreme 2 year El Nino event which peaked with the second near to record breaking El Nino event since only 97-98. Global temperatures saw the next historic spike building on top of previous warmth. The 15-16 super El Nino winter raised the bar on extremes yet again. Our warmest monthly departure ever in December going +13 along with our first 40 degree and 40 inch snowfall winter at JFK.  The pattern rapidly shifted in late December as the historic KB block built back into the AO region with a extreme lower than -4 drop. One of the greatest blizzards of all time followed reaching 30"+ around the JFK area. This 16-17 winter was the first top 10 warmest with over 20" of snow to follow another one. We are now into our 20th month in a row with above normal temperatures. A record number of top 10 warmest months in quick succession has occurred since May 2015. And I have to add the seeming unlikely first below 0 reading in NYC since 1994 during such a warm winter last year. Don't want to leave out historic August 2014 Islip deluge 13"+.

The common features of this new 2000's climate involve record blocking and global circulation changes. New extremes of heat, rainfall, and snowfall. Each new record breaking warm year just builds on top of the previous set of extremes.

 

[Paragon]

Nice thoughts, Chris!  Here are some of mine.

Can Super El Ninos also be connected to climate change?  We seem to be having more of them post 1980 than we had prior to 1980.

Some of the thoughts about climate change was that the oceans act as heat sinks and absorb the heat and when the El Ninos happen that facilitates to release all that latent heat.

Well now that we are seeing coral reef bleaching and even the Great Barrier Reef is starting to disappear, I'm thinking the oceans have reached their limits of absorption.

It's not all bad though, we've seen some amazing weather right here in our local area since 2000.  Some of my favorite events:

 

April 2002 heatwave

PD2

April 2003 snowstorm

(2002-03 winter)

2003-04 winter cold+snow

October 2005 rainfall- one for the record books!

the entire 2005 tropical season

2009-2010 winter

Summer 2010- one for the record books!

2010-2011 winter

July 2011 heatwave!

August 2011 earthquake + rainstorms + Irene- one for the record books!

October 2011 snowstorm

October 2012 Sandy

November 2012 snowstorm

August 2014 Islip deluge

February 2015 cold+snow

January 2016 snowstorm- one for the record books!

February 2016 historic -1 at NYC

[Paragon]

I'd say that my favorite period of all time was from the 2009-2010 winter, through that summer, through the following winter, through the 2011 summer and right up to Irene.

[bluewave]

Paragon, great list of events. Some very new research suggests that these stronger El Nino events are to be expected in a warming climate.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/12/corals-tie-stronger-el-ni-os-climate-change

As she will report next week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, California, a detailed, long-term temperature record derived from corals on Christmas and other Pacific islands shows that over the last 7000 years, El Niños waxed and waned. Then, during the 20th century, with global warming taking hold, their intensity began to climb. The trend is likely to continue, boding ever more destructive El Niños, she says. "It's yet another impact of global warming that we'd like to avoid."

[Paragon]

Thanks, Chris  The October 2005 deluge(s) coincided with when I got my weather station so I could document all that amazing rainfall personally.  I was sad that NYC hit a dry streak right at the end of the month and missed out on the alltime record (from Sept 1882 I think?) but out on Long Island we got 2 FEET of rain for the month!

 

[Paragon]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Paragon, great list of events. Some very new research suggests that these stronger El Nino events are to be expected in a warming climate.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/12/corals-tie-stronger-el-ni-os-climate-change

As she will report next week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, California, a detailed, long-term temperature record derived from corals on Christmas and other Pacific islands shows that over the last 7000 years, El Niños waxed and waned. Then, during the 20th century, with global warming taking hold, their intensity began to climb. The trend is likely to continue, boding ever more destructive El Niños, she says. "It's yet another impact of global warming that we'd like to avoid."

If our coral reefs go (thanks to acidification, bleaching and temp rise) it'll cause a chain reaction that will destroy a large portion of our marine ecology   Looks like the Great Barrier Reef is already on the way out.

[uncle W]

the one thing we haven't had so far during this period is a prolonged drought like we saw from 1956-1965 at it's peak...

[Paragon]

Or even the 90s into early 00s.  Didn't we have a bit of a drought in 1995 and between 1999 and 2002?  I remember forest fires in NJ and LI and yellow lawns all summer long in that time period (especially 1995.)

Nothing since 2002 however on the prolonged drought front.

Does 1983 still hold the record for wettest year on record for us?  It's ironic, with how hot that summer (and even September) were.

 

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the one thing we haven't had so far during this period is a prolonged drought like we saw from 1956-1965 at it's peak...

Summer 1966 I didn't live through it but reading about it, it was one of my all-time favorites.  Right up there with Summer 2010.

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the one thing we haven't had so far during this period is a prolonged drought like we saw from 1956-1965 at it's peak...

I was thinking the same thing. There were some studies that the drought in the 1960's was the most extreme in hundreds of years. They seemed to key in on the very cold Atlantic SST's as a potential contributing factor during the mid 60's.

[SnoSki14]

Add February 2017 to the extremes list as many places will likely have the warmest February on record. 

[bluewave]

 

http://marrella.aos.wisc.edu/Vavrus_etal_2017.pdf

 

This study tests the hypothesis that Arctic amplification (AA) of global warming remotely affects middle latitudes by promoting a weaker, wavier atmospheric circulation conducive to extreme weather. The investigation is based on the late-21^st century over greater North America (20°-90°N, 50°-160°W) using 40 simulations from the Community Earth System Model’s Large Ensemble, spanning 1920-2100. AA is found to promote regionally varying ridging aloft (500 hPa) with strong seasonal differences reflecting the location of strongest surface thermal forcing. During winter, maximum increases in future geopotential heights are centered over the Arctic Ocean, in conjunction with sea ice loss, but minimum height increases (troughing) occur to the south, over the continental United States. During summer the location of maximum height inflation shifts equatorward, forming an annular band across mid-high latitudes of the entire Northern Hemisphere. This band spans the continents, whose enhanced surface heating is aided by antecedent snow-cover loss and reduced terrestrial heat capacity. Through the thermal wind relationship, mid-tropospheric winds weaken on the equatorward flank of both seasonal ridging anomalies--- mainly over Canada during winter and even more over the continental United States during summer---but strengthen elsewhere to form a dipole anomaly pattern in each season. Changes in circulation waviness, expressed as sinuosity, are inversely correlated with changes in zonal wind speed at nearly all latitudes, both in the projections and as observed during recent decades. Over the central United States during summer, the weaker and wavier flow promotes drying and enhanced heating, thus favoring more intense summer weather.

[billgwx]

On 2/25/2017 at 9:33 AM, uncle W said:

the one thing we haven't had so far during this period is a prolonged drought like we saw from 1956-1965 at it's peak...

Knowing what some of the modeled AGW impacts (the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer in terms of annual precipitation), that may be very unlikely to happen.

Nice discussion. We were just noting a couple of days ago at the WFO how wild the variability in our weather has become. What is "normal?"

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, billgwx said:

Knowing what some of the modeled AGW impacts (the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer in terms of annual precipitation), that may be very unlikely to happen.

Nice discussion. We were just noting a couple of days ago at the WFO how wild the variability in our weather has become. What is "normal?"

We could still get short term droughts a la what we got in the Summer of 1995 and in the Summer of 2002, the grass was the color of straw both seasons.

Extreme heat feeds back on itself so at least for Summer, droughts are still possible.  More likely during the cold phase of the AMO and during the peak of the 11 yr solar cycle.

[JBG]

As a history buff there were plenty of extreme events in the past. The 1821 hurricane that merged the East River and the Hudson as far north as Canal Street. The storm that characterized Washington's crossing of the Delaware. The Hudson freezing solid during the winter of, I believe, 1776-7 or 1777-8, resulting in cannons being placed on the ice. The "year without summer" of, I believe, 1817 or 1818 (too lazy to search). The Blizzard of 1888. Historic cold at the turn of the last century and over New Year's 1917 into 1918. Record cold February 1934 in NYC, record heat throughout most of the country in July - August 1936.

The beat goes on.