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March 2017 Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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2 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Climo doesn't favor NYC January and February warmth but it has happened and plenty of times I've seen march blizzards. EPS 12z run looks blocky and cold after day 5! Plenty of chances for it to change but you have to admit there is a potential for a storm coming our way late next week! 

 

If we do get the blocking, we can worry about the OP runs later. We need the blocking to stay on the models. It's rare, but you can even get significant snow in early April.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This looks like the biggest temperature extremes after hitting 70 during the first week of March since 1972.

3/1/72...72....3/4......17.....3/7....58

 

I remember the March 72 arctic front that came with a snow shower that made the BQE a skating rink...I made it by 10 or twelve cars that spun out and got off the highway...March 72 ended up below normal...I don't see 2017 being that cold from now to the end of the month...

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Next 8 days (including today) still averaging BN [ @39 vs. 40-41 ].

We have amassed a positive surplus of 371degs. as of yesterday, so if remainder of the year starting today, works out exactly normal, we still end up +1deg. on the year ie.        371/365.

On the other hand, if we can get that 371 up to near 900 by 12/31, we would have the warmest year ever.

31x5.4 + 28x6.3 +3×9.3  =  371.     57.3 - 55.0 = 2 3degs.    For a new record make this 2.4×365 = 876 surplus degrees-----thus near 900degs.

876 - 371 = 505 .  With 303 days left in the year, we need to be 505/303 or+1.7 starting today for a new annual temperature record to be set.   I will update periodically as long as we remain on this AN trajectory .

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During the next 5-7 days, an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern is forecast to develop. However, with the shortening wave lengths, I'm not sure that the forecast EPO and AO blocking will be sufficient to produce sustained below normal readings. It appears more likely than not that the 3/10-20 period as a whole could average near or somewhat above normal with regard to temperatures. A window of opportunity for measurable snowfall still appears possible, but it could close shortly after mid-month if the pattern evolves toward reduced blocking and a return to even warmer conditions. 

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On 3/3/2017 at 3:50 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Below are some NYC March snowfall climatology charts for perspective (1981-2010 period):

MarchMeasurableNYC2017.jpg

2015 was really big for March snowfall around here, IMO the best March snowfall month I've ever seen.

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Some of the most extreme temperature variation that we have seen before March 10th. A NYC high of 70 on 3/1 followed by a low of 14 today. Another temperature rebound on the way with temps making a run on 60 degrees in a few days. Same theme continues with the warmest day ultimately having a more significant + departure than the lowest - departure.

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