brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Just as I thought, the models have all flipped back to warm and goodbye blocking again No blocking at all here, right? Just ignore the large orange and red blobs over Greenland. The PAC jet is warming the area up, and that's on the GEFS. The EPS is relaxed enough with it so that NYC northward is BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Hey do you look at models? The blocking is there. The Pacific is what is killing us some model runs look worse than other because the strength of the pac jet that's been our issues the whole winter-doesn't really matter if we get ATL blocking, the PAC just overwhelms with that fast strong flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Eh, it will be cold the next three or four days. We'll be back into the upper 40's by Monday and lower 60's by Tuesday, middle 50's on Wednesday, upper 40's on Thursday, near 60 on Friday, and then upper 60's on Saturday and near 70 on Sunday, and then GFS tries to switch to cold again after that, but even normal by then is lower 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Eh, it will be cold the next three or four days. We'll be back into the upper 40's by Monday and lower 60's by Tuesday, middle 50's on Wednesday, upper 40's on Thursday, near 60 on Friday, and then upper 60's on Saturday and near 70 on Sunday, and then GFS tries to switch to cold again after that, but even normal by then is lower 50's. Going to need a miracle at this juncture. Could happen but we're starting to get into the stretch (by next weekend) where accumulating snow becomes rarer for the coastal plain. N and W different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: Going to need a miracle at this juncture. Could happen but we're starting to get into the stretch (by next weekend) where accumulating snow becomes rarer for the coastal plain. N and W different story. We're done with accumulating snow until December. I won't rule out a few flurries or some white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We're done with accumulating snow until December. I won't rule out a few flurries or some white rain. If we see anything today, and that's a big if, we better enjoy it. Hoping for a quick thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: If we see anything today, and that's a big if, we better enjoy it. Hoping for a quick thump of snow. I bet you'll be hard pressed to see overcast skies today. The system is way flat and South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I bet you'll be hard pressed to see overcast skies today. The system is way flat and South. see Bluewave's thread-the threat is from an arctic front with steep lapse rates-some areas could get a quick coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I bet you'll be hard pressed to see overcast skies today. The system is way flat and South. Just now, Brian5671 said: see Bluewave's thread-the threat is from an arctic front with steep lapse rates-some areas could get a quick coating. That's the one I was refering to. I'm not saying it will happen, but arctic fronts can sometimes produce a nice quick hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: see Bluewave's thread-the threat is from an arctic front with steep lapse rates-some areas could get a quick coating. I saw it. The NAM has the line breaking up as it crosses NJ. The 12z RGEM is a little more bullish. The ground is very warm, so I doubt even if it comes down at a decent clip that it sticks on most surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I saw it. The NAM has the line breaking up as it crosses NJ. The 12z RGEM is a little more bullish. The ground is very warm, so I doubt even if it comes down at a decent clip that it sticks on most surfaces. True on all counts. HRRR has some squalls. Will help that it's near dinner time-so not in the middle of the day-could see a quick coating that ices up with quickly dropping temps, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Next 7 days may actually average a touch BN @39-40degs. The "TOUCH" could become a "TORCH" later. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: We're done with accumulating snow until December. I won't rule out a few flurries or some white rain. How can you say this with confidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: No blocking at all here, right? Just ignore the large orange and red blobs over Greenland. The PAC jet is warming the area up, and that's on the GEFS. The EPS is relaxed enough with it so that NYC northward is BN. Euro looks really good with blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How can you say this with confidence? You can make this conclusion correctly 99 times out of 100 just based on climo alone. Add in long range guidance and seasonal trends and it's about as much of a lock as you can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Euro weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Euro and gfs flipped spots. Even the cmc is colder than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro and gfs flipped spots. Even the cmc is colder than the gfs. Did you see how the Southeast ridge was already reloading by day 9? Sure we have a chance at one last rogue storm, but I wouldn't count on it being significant snow, especially for anyone within 50 miles of the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Euros about 4-6" next weekend 50+ miles north of NYC, GGEM about the same but more widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: You can make this conclusion correctly 99 times out of 100 just based on climo alone. Add in long range guidance and seasonal trends and it's about as much of a lock as you can make. You do know we average measureable snow in March, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: You do know we average measureable snow in March, right? #yanksfacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: You do know we average measureable snow in March, right? Yes I'm well aware, but how often does it come after March 10th and how often is it more than a half inch? There is really nothing on the models that points towards a potential significant system other than a possible below average temperature pattern for a few days. We're getting that now, and it's stuck to the seasonale trend of cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, danstorm said: #yanksfacts The Average March low in NYC is 34 degrees. The average high is 48. Climo certainly doesn't favor snow in NYC in March, espeically after the first ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Average March low in NYC is 34 degrees. The average high is 48. Climo certainly doesn't favor snow in NYC in March, espeically after the first ten days. Climo doesn't favor NYC January and February warmth but it has happened and plenty of times I've seen march blizzards. EPS 12z run looks blocky and cold after day 5! Plenty of chances for it to change but you have to admit there is a potential for a storm coming our way late next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 18 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Climo doesn't favor NYC January and February warmth but it has happened and plenty of times I've seen march blizzards. EPS 12z run looks blocky and cold after day 5! Plenty of chances for it to change but you have to admit there is a potential for a storm coming our way late next week! I never said that we don't have a chance of getting a storm, but I think the overall seasonal trends, climo moving forward and the lack of anything significant showing up on the operational models all make the odds of a significant snowstorm in NYC near zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Below are some NYC March snowfall climatology charts for perspective (1981-2010 period): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Got really dark out to the NW... squall lines making a push this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 And just like that... snows coming down hard, sky's are black Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Heavy snow now, this squall lines insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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