LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Crazy winds here in wantagh!! Just had a very long lasting gust that seemed to last several minutes and had to be 50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Several areas around the Tri state already having gusts over 50 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Feels surprisingly warm right now, despite the wind. I dressed for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 45mph gust highest here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 41 mph gust last night, very windy still, snow showers currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Only the 2nd time since 1970 that NYC experiences such extreme temperature variation between March 1-10. NYC had a high of 70 yesterday with a +24 daily departure. Models are forecasting a brief but potent Arctic shot over the weekend with low temperatures dipping below 20. A few days later temperatures rebound rapidly above 50 with a 60 degree reading not out of the question. People aren't going to know how to dress from day to day with such extremes. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 3/02/2017 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04| SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| THU 09 CLIMO X/N 50| 29 41| 18 34| 15 37| 36 53| 47 58| 53 59| 42 49 31 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 BULLETIN. Next 8 days, including today, to average NEAR NORMAL (just +1 or 2). By March 10 the month should be +3degs., where I think it could end up. Snow probability near zero over next 72hrs., according to WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 8am wind gusts: Central Park-43 mph. Lag and JFK-51 mph. EWR-56 mph. Report of a roof blown off a building in Yonkers. NJ Transit Morris/Essex lines had multiple trees down on the tracks earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, CIK62 said: BULLETIN. Next 8 days, including today, to average NEAR NORMAL (just +1 or 2). By March 10 the month should be +3degs., where I think it could end up. Snow probability near zero over next 72hrs., according to WPC. Yesterday added almost a whole degree to the overall monthly departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, Morris said: Yesterday added almost a whole degree to the overall monthly departure. It seems like extreme departures on the warm side for a few days is what has brought about a good deal of above average temps. Days with big departures are much more common than colder than average days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 New City here --->JUST SAW an airborne scarecrow and 3 flying monkeys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 7 hours ago, Eduardo said: Don, what if any effect might this past winter's drivers have on our summertime pattern (i.e., low arctic sea ice, cold tongue between Hawaii and WCUS, AMO state, etc.)? Seems like this winter did not behave like many thought it would this past fall, although I must hand it to those who went warm in the face of some pro met forecasts tossing out 95-96 as an analog. I don't think anybody foresaw the development of warm anomalies in ENSO 1.2 either. The past few years have shown me that we still have quite a long way to go in the domain of LR WX forecasting... I suspect that the SSTAs and state of the Arctic sea ice will have some impact on our summer. Right now, even as numerous summers following La Niña winters tend to be cooler than normal, I suspect that this summer will wind up warmer than normal. It could even prove to be a hot summer, but that's still far away. As for the winter, one can't really forecast some of the critical drivers e.g., AO, on a seasonal basis with much reliability. The recent winter was the fourth consecutive one with a dominant positive state (preliminary AO data show that it was a super-dominant positive phase with 80% days having positive values with 52% of days having values of +1.000 or above. The preliminary winter average was +1.012. Based on some of the research by Dr. Francis at Rutgers, I suspect the record low Arctic sea ice extent likely contributed to a persistence of the AO+ pattern. In my opinion, even as the CONUS U.S. pattern was pretty consistent with what one would expect from the predominant state of the teleconnections during the December 2016-February 2017 period, the trough in Canada was much less expansive than the composite teleconnections outcome and, unlike the composite idea, there was ridging from the Hudson Bay northeastward. The result was a warm winter across most of Canada, unlike what one would typically have expected based on the state of the teleconnections. My hypothesis is that these differences were linked to the extraordinary Arctic warmth and record low Arctic sea ice extent during the winter. Additional cases and/or new literature on possible linkages will be required to see if such a hypothesis has merit. For New York City, the impact was more muted. The outcomes were quite similar to what one might have expected given the teleconnections. New York City Cases: DJF Average (1981-2010): 35.5° DJF Average for Composite Pattern (AO+/PNA +0.500 or below/Limited Blocking): 38.4° DJF Average for the above Composite Pattern + Adjustment for Observed Warming: 38.9° Actual December 2016-February 2017 Average: 39.3° (FWIW, a similar methodology would yield a March mean temperature of 44.2° to 44.5°, but shortening wave lengths raises the degree of uncertainty.) A comparison of the composite maps from the prevalent teleconnections and actual outcomes (12/1-2/27 as the 28th has not yet been added to the re-analysis datasets) is below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Only the 2nd time since 1970 that NYC experiences such extreme temperature variation between March 1-10. NYC had a high of 70 yesterday with a +24 daily departure. Models are forecasting a brief but potent Arctic shot over the weekend with low temperatures dipping below 20. A few days later temperatures rebound rapidly above 50 with a 60 degree reading not out of the question. People aren't going to know how to dress from day to day with such extremes. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 3/02/2017 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04| SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| THU 09 CLIMO X/N 50| 29 41| 18 34| 15 37| 36 53| 47 58| 53 59| 42 49 31 47 when I was ten in 1959 March 20th was 71 degrees...then a low of 20 on the 23rd...a high of 66 on the 24th...measurable snow and sleet on the 28th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 850s are already 20c colder than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Blocky look on both EPS and GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Blocky look on both EPS and GEFS Are we really going to fall for this again? For the umpteenth time this winter? We've seen this movie before, a bunch of times over the last 4 months in fact.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Are we really going to fall for this again? For the upteenth time this winter? We've seen this movie before, a bunch of times over the last 4 months in fact.... Its actually inside day 10 and also the longwave pattern now is conducive for GL blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 What a block on the 18z gfs with plenty of snow chances. Dmillz is right. It is moving up in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Are we really going to fall for this again? For the umpteenth time this winter? We've seen this movie before, a bunch of times over the last 4 months in fact.... Yes because every model shows blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 31 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Its actually inside day 10 and also the lowlngwave pattern now is conducive for GL blocking I can't remember the last time the EPS showed a switch to colder from a previous run within the 10 day timeframe. It moved to better blocking both in the Bering Sea and Greenland. Wondering if this is somehow a delayed result of the big SOI drop recently to -50? It will be important to see how the 6-10 plays out since it will set up what happenes heading into mid March. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: I can't remember the last time the EPS showed a switch to colder from a previous run within the 10 day timeframe. It moved to better blocking both in the Bering Sea and Greenland. Wondering if this is somehow a delayed result of the big SOI drop recently to -50? It will be important to see how the 6-10 plays out since it will set up what happenes heading into mid March. New run Old run All that blocking in the high latitudes. All that's missing is the aleutian low and we would be in business. But this is the first real GL block since 2013 so let's hope we get to enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: I can't remember the last time the EPS showed a switch to colder from a previous run within the 10 day timeframe. It moved to better blocking both in the Bering Sea and Greenland. Wondering if this is somehow a delayed result of the big SOI drop recently to -50? It will be important to see how the 6-10 plays out since it will set up what happenes heading into mid March. New run Old run Lag in the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Cold few nights on tap going to be a slap in the face after all of this warmth. Not looking forward to teens and single digit windchills but at least it'll be brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 I think that blocking is a more realistic option in the next 7-14 days. There is a major system that should push through S Canada in 5-6 days. This will trigger higher heights in the Greenland region. This is shown clearly on both the GEFS and EPS in seven days, which is much closer in time than previous blocking mirages. If the system pushing through Canada is weaker, then blocking might not even develop. The GEPS is a good example of this. The OP GFS and Euro have been moving towards stronger blocking, but OP runs at long leads should obviously be taken with a large grain of salt. The GEFS has been known to develop blocking out of seemingly nothing in the LR, but I don't believe that this is the case this time. The GEFS has support from the EPS around 7 days, and there is a defined reason for the blocking's development. If blocking develops, then the chance for winter weather on the east coast is elevated (it's still low, but higher than normal). The 18z GFS shows what could happen if strong blocking actually develops and stays in place. I'm personally waiting until Monday to see if this blocking is legit. If blocking proves to be non-existent, then winter is effectively over. EPS GEFS GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Really. I know, I know, the Canadian ensembles don't show what you want. I can't wait to see your response once this all inevitably flips again, just like it has done all winter long Personally, I think that the CMC is an awful model, so I wouldn't see how an awful model's ensemble would be any better. If the GEPS showed epic blocking and it was by itself, I would never believe it. Right now, it's the opposite. One reason why it has a bit of an advantage is because of this winter's aversion to blocking. We'll see how this all pans out in the next week. Either of us could be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 2016-17 is only the fourth winter with an average temperature 38.0 or higher for Dec-Feb...the others are 1948-49, 1997-98, 2001-02...there are only eight with all three months 37.0 or higher...the four already listed and 1879-80, 1889-90, 1952-53, 2011-12... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 Current temp is 29 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just as I thought, the models have all flipped back to warm and goodbye blocking again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 25° this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Just as I thought, the models have all flipped back to warm and goodbye blocking again Hey do you look at models? The blocking is there. The Pacific is what is killing us some model runs look worse than other because the strength of the pac jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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