pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: The park ended up hitting 70. March roars in like a pool-side piña colada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another 50+ degree swing between highs and lows like like we saw early last March. Newark went from a low of 27 to a high of 82 a few days later. Yeah, 63° here today so if I can hit 13° Saturday night that will be a 50° swing. I wonder how long it'll be before we see 80° this March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Just now, JerseyWx said: Yeah, 63° here today so if i can hit 13° Saturday night that will be a 50° swing. I wonder how long it'll be before we see 80° this March. I say April. Watch the pattern stay cooler longed than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I say April. Watch the pattern stay cooler longed than expected Since November, not one progged cooler pattern has stayed cooler longer than expected. Just the opposite. Warmth has been winning consistently for the last 4 months straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: My forecast dropped into the low teens for Saturday night. That's pretty incredible considering how warm February was. High is forecast to be in the 20s here with lows in the 10s, it's pretty sad we can't get a snow system out of it, it would have stuck even if it fell in the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Since November, not one progged cooler pattern has stayed cooler longer than expected. Just the opposite. Warmth has been winning consistently for the last 4 months straight 4 months? haha more like 2 years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah, 63° here today so if I can hit 13° Saturday night that will be a 50° swing. I wonder how long it'll be before we see 80° this March. Temps quickly rebound to above normal again next week ahead of another big cutter to the Great Lakes. So the cold shots will continue to be transient in a continued above normal temperature pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: 4 months? haha more like 2 years lol. Very true but I was using the shorter, recent "cold season" as an example lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Very true but I was using the shorter, recent "cold season" as an example lol I'm wondering when we are going to see an actual (-) month. It's most likely to happen in the summer of course, that's statistically when it's most likely. But I want to see how many months in a row we can actually go with this. Looking at a number of things, like positive anomalies in the south, lack of ice cover this year over the great lakes, and a few other things (drought in the SE), I think we could have a + summer. + spring is almost assured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I say April. Watch the pattern stay cooler longed than expected 80 after March 20, not sure about 90, either after April 20, or sometime in May most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Temps quickly rebound to above normal again next week ahead of another big cutter to the Great Lakes. So a continuation of these short cold shots like we have been seeing in a sea of warmth. Are we still on track for that other cold shot, somewhere in between the 8th and 13th? You know that's when I predicted the last snowfall of the season to be- March 13th lol. I'm not confident about it though with this kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 only hit 59 today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Are we still on track for that other cold shot, somewhere in between the 8th and 13th? You know that's when I predicted the last snowfall of the season to be- March 13th lol. I'm not confident about it though with this kind of pattern. Not as cold as this weekend. This weekend should be the coldest temps that we experience in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I say April. Watch the pattern stay cooler longed than expected Very possible. Maybe we'll just see 70s this month at most. 12 minutes ago, Paragon said: High is forecast to be in the 20s here with lows in the 10s, it's pretty sad we can't get a snow system out of it, it would have stuck even if it fell in the middle of the day. Yeah, this would be the perfect time for it. Lots of cold to work with. 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Temps quickly rebound to above normal again next week ahead of another big cutter to the Great Lakes. So the cold shots will continue to be transient in a continued above normal temperature pattern. The trend continues lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not as cold as this weekend. This weekend should be the coldest temps that we experience in March. highs in the 40s would make it just barely below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Record high here today of 72...just 0.02" of rain. Feel like we're getting back into a dry pattern like we saw last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: highs in the 40s would make it just barely below normal Saturday should stay in the mid 30s for highs which would be solidly BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Wind has really kicked up here in Battery Park City. Some window-rattlers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Saturday should stay in the mid 30s for highs which would be solidly BN. This is surreal, it's the warmest it's been and windy, near 60 degrees at 2 am. I thought it was supposed to be in the 20s on Saturday? Pity there's no snow, I hate wasting these late season outbreaks, this happened last April too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: This is surreal, it's the warmest it's been and windy, near 60 degrees at 2 am. I thought it was supposed to be in the 20s on Saturday? Pity there's no snow, I hate wasting these late season outbreaks, this happened last April too. This cold front is coming. 850's will be nose diving shortly. We're still at 9c. 850's are already at -16c not far from Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Just now, Morris said: This cold front is coming. 850's will be nose diving shortly. We're still at 9c. Yeah I noticed our winds are still SW lol. I guess everything is delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm leaning in that direction. I'm thinking the spring will be warm, too. Don, what if any effect might this past winter's drivers have on our summertime pattern (i.e., low arctic sea ice, cold tongue between Hawaii and WCUS, AMO state, etc.)? Seems like this winter did not behave like many thought it would this past fall, although I must hand it to those who went warm in the face of some pro met forecasts tossing out 95-96 as an analog. I don't think anybody foresaw the development of warm anomalies in ENSO 1.2 either. The past few years have shown me that we still have quite a long way to go in the domain of LR WX forecasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yeah I noticed our winds are still SW lol. I guess everything is delayed. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# Beautiful view and as sharp a cold front that you see here. Go to Upper Air 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# Beautiful view and as sharp a cold front that you see here. Go to Upper Air 850mb. Wow, it's really clearing out behind it. So the cold front is still in NW PA? I see some storms way north of us in the mid hudson valley (actually north of Albany). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Don, what if any effect might this past winter's drivers have on our summertime pattern (i.e., low arctic sea ice, cold tongue between Hawaii and WCUS, AMO state, etc.)? Seems like this winter did not behave like many thought it would this past fall, although I must hand it to those who went warm in the face of some pro met forecasts tossing out 95-96 as an analog. I don't think anybody foresaw the development of warm anomalies in ENSO 1.2 either. The past few years have shown me that we still have quite a long way to go in the domain of LR WX forecasting... The other thing that might have an influence is the drought in the SE, that tends to support SE ridging closer to the coast, which would give us hot dry weather in the summer with a downsloping land breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Very windy as the front is blowing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 Mt.Holly just upgraded my area from a Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning until 10:00 am this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Crazy wind going on right now, my house is shaking, wind must be over 50 mph, temp is in the low 60s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Wind just woke me out my sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Temp finally starting to drop from the 60s- it took long enough lol. We have a high wind warning until 11 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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