Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: We'll have to watch for the development of a strong ridge in the East. 7/9 80° cases in the 1981-2010 period coincided with an EPO+/AO+ pattern. I know this is early, Don, but are you looking at the possibilities of a hot summer, a la 2002? (I'm using that one as reference because it resulted in an El Nino in the fall.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Spring has arrived to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Thanks, Pazzo- do they have records for previous years on this, and when the earliest we've had it has been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Current temp 56/DP 54/RH 92% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 10 hours ago, Paragon said: I know this is early, Don, but are you looking at the possibilities of a hot summer, a la 2002? (I'm using that one as reference because it resulted in an El Nino in the fall.) I'm leaning in that direction. I'm thinking the spring will be warm, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 March is coming in with record warm minimum temps across the area. The average low is 31 degrees and the past record high min was 49 degrees. The low temperature so far on the day is 54 degrees at NYC after midnight and is now in the upper 50's at 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm leaning in that direction. I'm thinking the spring will be warm, too. Yes, most of these guys don't remember this kind of pattern, but we do, and it's a generally stable and long-lasting one. I would lean in the dry direction too, although it can still be hot and wet like 1983 was. 2002 seems to fit the pattern better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: March is coming in with record warm minimum temps across the area. The average low is 31 degrees and the past record high min was 49 degrees. The low temperature so far on the day is 54 degrees at NYC after midnight and is now in the upper 50's at 7 am. The interesting this is, this is happening on March 1st, rather than towards the end of the month, when it would be much more likely to happen, Chris I think you have to separate the first week of March, which classically behaves more like a winter week (more like late February) from the rest of the month. So if we have a record min right now, it would stand even better when compared to late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, Paragon said: The interesting this is, this is happening on March 1st, rather than towards the end of the month, when it would be much more likely to happen, Chris I think you have to separate the first week of March, which classically behaves more like a winter week (more like late February) from the rest of the month. So if we have a record min right now, it would stand even better when compared to late February. All we need is just some short breaks of sun for maybe an hour or two this afternoon for the areas away from the marine influence to make a run at 70 or better. These 850's are some of the warmest on record for March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Latest CANSIPS is +3 to +4 for March, and about +2 for both April and May. No below normal month indicated for the next 12, which would make a whopping 35 consecutive months of AN temperatures here since our great winter of 2014-15. We might get a break with July/August which only lean AN a little. I still bet the next BN month will be just an accident BTW: CANSIPS on Dec. 01 had our winter at +1, +3, +3, not bad work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: All we need is just some short breaks of sun for maybe an hour or two this afternoon for the areas away from the marine influence to make a run at 70 or better. These 850's are some of the warmest on record for March 1st. It probably won't be nearly as warm as last week was for us though, we've got solid overcast here and low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 47 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Latest CANSIPS is +3 to +4 for March, and about +2 for both April and May. No below normal month indicated for the next 12, which would make a whopping 35 consecutive months of AN temperatures here since our great winter of 2014-15. We might get a break with July/August which only lean AN a little. I still bet the next BN month will be just an accident BTW: CANSIPS on Dec. 01 had our winter at +1, +3, +3, not bad work. I can't remember the model, but I think it was some sort of Canadian model that has the winter as a blowtorch in the eastern 2/3 of the country...JB posted it back in December. Turned out to right on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 52 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Latest CANSIPS is +3 to +4 for March, and about +2 for both April and May. No below normal month indicated for the next 12, which would make a whopping 35 consecutive months of AN temperatures here since our great winter of 2014-15. We might get a break with July/August which only lean AN a little. I still bet the next BN month will be just an accident BTW: CANSIPS on Dec. 01 had our winter at +1, +3, +3, not bad work. I think they are only going a little above normal for the summer, because a little above normal still means a hot summer, varations from normal are less in the summer. A +2 in July would put July among our hottest ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, Paragon said: It probably won't be nearly as warm as last week was for us though, we've got solid overcast here and low 50s. Yeah, areas away from the the marine influence will do the best for high temps today. Central Jersey is already pushing 70 before the breaks in the overcast arrive next few hours. TOMS RIVER* CLOUDY 67 62 84 SW16 29.70F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: Yeah, areas away from the the marine influence will do the best for high temps today. Central Jersey is already pushing 70 before the breaks in the overcast arrive next few hours. TOMS RIVER* CLOUDY 67 62 84 SW16 29.70F I get jealous of those guys, they are near the Ocean but they also experience much hotter weather than us in the summer on the typical SW winds. Toms River also radiates very well at night, sometimes even outdoing Westhampton Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: I get jealous of those guys, they are near the Ocean but they also experience much hotter weather than us in the summer on the typical SW winds. Toms River also radiates very well at night, sometimes even outdoing Westhampton Beach. They may have set the new rapid temperature rise record for NJ when the went from -5 to 69 in just a few days in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: They may have set the new rapid temperature rise record for NJ when the went from -5 to 69 in just a few days in January. I wonder if FOK has a similar record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Dewpoint is 57 at the park right now, wonder if we'll crack 60 for the first time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Current temp 64/DP 59/RH 88% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: Dewpoint is 57 at the park right now, wonder if we'll crack 60 for the first time this year. 66/61 now at Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Current temp 69/ DP 62/RH 79% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Temp is up to 73 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 high wind warnings up for BOX and ALB coverage areas-thinking OKX updates at 4 today to HWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: high wind warnings up for BOX and ALB coverage areas-thinking OKX updates at 4 today to HWW Three major divisions in temp, one between NJ and NYC (mid 70s vs mid 60s) and another between NYC and the south shore and LI (mid 60s vs low-mid 50s), still mostly cloudy here with peeks of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: high wind warnings up for BOX and ALB coverage areas-thinking OKX updates at 4 today to HWW Looks like a nice burst of winds starting around 7am tomorrow as the low level lapse rates steepen while a piece of the LLJ hangs back across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 When do you think the winds will peak, Chris? Between 7 AM and noon? Or all day long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 52 minutes ago, Paragon said: When do you think the winds will peak, Chris? Between 7 AM and noon? Or all day long? It looks like the strongest winds should come in from around 7 am to 10 am or so. You know that there will be a windy day in the mix when parts of the area go from the low 70's today to possibly around or below 20 for lows this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks like the strongest winds should come in from around 7 am to 10 am or so. You know that there will be a windy day in the mix when parts of the area go from the low 70's today to possibly around or below 20 for lows this weekend. My forecast dropped into the low teens for Saturday night. That's pretty incredible considering how warm February was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: My forecast dropped into the low teens for Saturday night. That's pretty incredible considering how warm February was. Another 50+ degree swing between highs and lows like like we saw early last March. Newark went from a low of 27 to a high of 82 a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 The park ended up hitting 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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