March 2017 Discussion & Observations

[Paragon]

23 hours ago, psv88 said:

Uhhh...that is insane...

ugh I originally thought that was a snowfall accumulation map ;-)

[Paragon]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

The temperature swings on the 12Z EPS are pretty extreme.Near to possible record warmth on March 1st followed by temps falling into the 20's a few days later. It then reloads the ridge for milder temps again before colder temps sweep back in again. Would be nice if we could get one last snow event somewhere in the mix. But it may be hard to pin down outside 3 to 5 days with such a rapid back and forth pattern.

 

 

Chris, this sounds a lot like what happened in Early February.

[NEG NAO]

51 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I actually see April and the summer going the other way, mainly because I'm well familiar with this sort of winter pattern and what usually follows is hot and dry weather.  I think spring and summer will be both warmer and drier than normal.  SE Ridge will continue being exceptionally strong.

 

that's what happened  last summer - hot and dry. Last year was the ending of El Nino this summer is still to be determined how strong the coming El Nino gets - same basic result you say ? This string of above normal months has to end at some point ..........

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

even if we get a good block, I'd have to wonder how cold the air ends up under the block.   Would suck to get a great block and then have polar pacific air locked in place and get mid 30's an rain

Say it with me, Winter is over.

Just look at the mid to late range on the GFS. It's a continues stream of 2-3 warm days followed by a brief return back to normal, which is the upper 40's by next week.

[Paragon]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

that's what happened  last summer - hot and dry. Last year was the ending of El Nino this summer is still to be determined how strong the coming El Nino gets - same basic result you say ? This string of above normal months has to end at some point ..........

the kind of pattern I'm talking about could actually be good for the upcoming winter- think 2002 ;-)  we had an oncoming el nino that year too, but the previous spring and summer were hot and dry.

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Say it with me, Winter is over.

Just look at the mid to late range on the GFS. It's a continues stream of 2-3 warm days followed by a brief return back to normal, which is the upper 40's by next week.

it's over, but I think we get one more event out of winter.   last 2 weeks of March will be an inferno to end all infernos.   +6 month incoming.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

it's over, but I think we get one more event out of winter.   last 2 weeks of March will be an inferno to end all infernos.   +6 month incoming.

it will get milder no doubt but I believe the real heat waits for April ;-)

 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Say it with me, Winter is over.

Just look at the mid to late range on the GFS. It's a continues stream of 2-3 warm days followed by a brief return back to normal, which is the upper 40's by next week.

you have to be careful in this type of pattern with the blocking over Greenland a good part of the month - MJO in 1,2,3 - timing will be the key could easily get no snow or a Major snowfall surrounded by normal to above normal temps before and after - could be a wacky month just like February.....

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you have to be careful in this type of pattern with the blocking over Greenland a good part of the month - MJO in 1,2,3 - timing will be the key could easily get no snow or a Major snowfall surrounded by normal to above normal temps before and after - could be a wacky month just like February.....

It reminds me of early February but we must make an adjustment for it being later in the season.  So we might be more like Philly was in that early February snowstorm.

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

The amount of snow we had (which is all most people care about) is why they don't give up.  This winter gets rated ok, decent snow and low heating costs- it's a C+.  I'd like a hot spring and summer now, I can't stand normal spring or fall weather.

I agree.  If it had 01-02 or 11-12 or 97-98 snow totals most would have tossed in the towel.  Those winters were putrid in both the temp and snowfall dept... The fact that NYC and especially north has done ok is why folks are hanging on.  (any why I think we'll get one more decent event.)

[winterwx21]

GFS continues to show some light accumulations with a clipper for Friday. Do you guys think GFS is way off with the idea of this clipper? The model has been so bad and has overhyped so many potential events lately. The GGEM continues to show absolutely nothing with the clipper. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

GFS continues to show some light accumulations with a clipper for Friday. Do you guys think GFS is way off with the idea of this clipper? The model has been so bad and has overhyped so many potential events lately. The GGEM continues to show absolutely nothing with the clipper. 

GGEM has lower verification scores than the GFS.  GFS often does well with clippers so I would give it some weight here.

[Paragon]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I agree.  If it had 01-02 or 11-12 or 97-98 snow totals most would have tossed in the towel.  Those winters were putrid in both the temp and snowfall dept... The fact that NYC and especially north has done ok is why folks are hanging on.  (any why I think we'll get one more decent event.)

I don't remember 97-98 well outside of the big ice storm further north, but I think I would have been pissed to get 5" of snow in the latter half of March lol.  I mean we were on our way to a historic winter with 0.5" might as well close the deal.  But it's instrumental in showing how even a warm pattern (with a furnace developing at the end of March to boot) can still deliver snow.  People don't care about sustained cold, they just care about having one more snowstorm to track and see.

 

[JerseyWx]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's over, but I think we get one more event out of winter.   last 2 weeks of March will be an inferno to end all infernos.   +6 month incoming.

I agree, from now until then is our last shot at something decent.

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS continues to show some light accumulations with a clipper for Friday. Do you guys think GFS is way off with the idea of this clipper? The model has been so bad and has overhyped so many potential events lately. The GGEM continues to show absolutely nothing with the clipper. 

wait and see if the Euro agrees - the Euro has hinted at it for Friday Nam starts coming into range later Tuesday - the 12Z GFS continues the streak of GFS runs showing this and has shifted south with the track - we need it to track across south jersey and slow down..........

[BxEngine]

Leave the psychology in the banter thread guys please...discuss the weather. 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you have to be careful in this type of pattern with the blocking over Greenland a good part of the month - MJO in 1,2,3 - timing will be the key could easily get no snow or a Major snowfall surrounded by normal to above normal temps before and after - could be a wacky month just like February.....

During the current winter, the MJO has largely been a non-player so to speak when it was going through its colder phases. Other variables—namely the predominant AO+/PNA- pattern--have more than offset the MJO.

Just so there’s no argument concerning low-amplitude MJO phases, I looked at January and February cases when the MJO was in Phases 8, 1, and 2 and the amplitude was 1.000 or above. There were two distinct periods that met those criteria:

January 17-26, 2017: Mean Temperature: 42.6° (1981-2010 Climatology: 31.6°)
February 13-25, 2017: Mean Temperature: 45.6° (1981-2010 Climatology: 36.9°)

The latter period saw the MJO reach amplitudes in excess of 3.000 while in the colder phases.

In short, if one is looking for sustained cold in March, one will probably need to look for confirmation beyond the MJO. Right now, aside from Week 2, which could have a cool anomaly, the odds favor March’s being yet another warmer than normal month. That the second half of the month could break warmer than normal after Week 2 increases confidence in that idea.

In terms of snowfall, there will be a brief AO-/PNA+ window. Such patterns have had a higher than climatological risk for snowfalls in excess of 1”. But that period looks to be brief, so such a snowfall will probably need to occur before mid-month. I think we’ll see some measurable snowfall in and around the NYC area (but the late-week clipper seems a little weak to produce much in the City itself), but it’s too soon to have much confidence in the idea of a moderate or significant snowfall.

[Isotherm]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

During the current winter, the MJO has largely been a non-player so to speak when it was going through its colder phases. Other variables—namely the predominant AO+/PNA- pattern--have more than offset the MJO.

Just so there’s no argument concerning low-amplitude MJO phases, I looked at January and February cases when the MJO was in Phases 8, 1, and 2 and the amplitude was 1.000 or above. There were two distinct periods that met those criteria:

January 17-26, 2017: Mean Temperature: 42.6° (1981-2010 Climatology: 31.6°)
February 13-25, 2017: Mean Temperature: 45.6° (1981-2010 Climatology: 36.9°)

The latter period saw the MJO reach amplitudes in excess of 3.000 while in the colder phases.

In short, if one is looking for sustained cold in March, one will probably need to look for confirmation beyond the MJO. Right now, aside from Week 2, which could have a cool anomaly, the odds favor March’s being yet another warmer than normal month. That the second half of the month could break warmer than normal after Week 2 increases confidence in that idea.

In terms of snowfall, there will be a brief AO-/PNA+ window. Such patterns have had a higher than climatological risk for snowfalls in excess of 1”. But that period looks to be brief, so such a snowfall will probably need to occur before mid-month. I think we’ll see some measurable snowfall in and around the NYC area (but the late-week clipper seems a little weak to produce much in the City itself), but it’s too soon to have much confidence in the idea of a moderate or significant snowfall.

 

Keep in mind, most of the geopotential height rises are occuring over Greenland, and this is reflected in a more negative NAO fcst vs. The AO over the next two weeks. This is a function of the MJO/strat constructive interference in my view. We are not looking at protracted cold, but there is a window from late this week through mid March for one or two snow threats in the Northeast, including I95. The pattern will likely break mid month, though it doesn't look like a furnace right now. I would say the probabilities are high for another snow event as it is the best z500 pattern I have seen all winter. 

[MJO812]

GfS shows good blocking. I wouldnt be shocked to see Friday's clipper come more south and also watch Tuesday's storm. This past run had a transfer where the past runs didnt. Interesting times ahead.

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

ggem has been the worst!

They both have been very bad. GFS has shown a bunch of snow events mid range only to take them away when it gets closer. So I don't give it much weight when it shows us getting some accumulations with the clipper Friday. 

[NJwx85]

53 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GfS shows good blocking. I wouldnt be shocked to see Friday's clipper come more south and also watch Tuesday's storm. This past run had a transfer where the past runs didnt. Interesting times ahead.

The GEFS has weakened the block for the last three runs in a row.

vs 00z

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Keep in mind, most of the geopotential height rises are occuring over Greenland, and this is reflected in a more negative NAO fcst vs. The AO over the next two weeks. This is a function of the MJO/strat constructive interference in my view. We are not looking at protracted cold, but there is a window from late this week through mid March for one or two snow threats in the Northeast, including I95. The pattern will likely break mid month, though it doesn't look like a furnace right now. I would say the probabilities are high for another snow event as it is the best z500 pattern I have seen all winter. 

I agree with a lot of this. Like you, I suspect that we'll have 1-2 opportunities for measurable snow through mid-month. While I currently expect a return to above normal temperatures sometime after mid-month, I'm not yet certain that we'll get to extreme-type readings (e.g., highs in the upper 70s or 80s). Hopefully, we'll cash in during our favorable window.

[CIK62]

First 6 days of the new month will be keeping pace with the first two months of the year @ about +5degs.

As for a storm near the 13th., all Critical Thickness lines are north of us on that morning, in conjunction with the heaviest precipitation.    48 hours later some light snow might be possible from a weak system.

[danstorm]

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

First 6 days of the new month will be keeping pace with the first two months of the year @ about +5degs.

As for a storm near the 13th., all Critical Thickness lines are north of us on that morning, in conjunction with the heaviest precipitation.    48 hours later some light snow might be possible from a weak system.

Nice, glad we're analyzing light snow chances at D16

[donsutherland1]

February marked the 20th consecutive month during which New York City posted a warmer than normal average temperature. The latest guidance and the historical experience for cases when the first week of March experiences a 65° or above temperature suggest that another warmer than normal month appears likely.

The EPO forecast has been trending more positive. The PNA will likely remain negative for much or all of the first half of March. The AO could go negative, but likely for a limited duration.

An EPO+ coupled with an absence of Arctic or PNA blocking implies warmer than normal readings. Moreover, assuming that the SOI will experience an increased likelihood of negative values, as can happen during the transition to an El Niño event (a possibility going forward), that outcome could amplify the warmth associated with an EPO+ pattern, especially when SOI values are severely negative.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

February marked the 20th consecutive month during which New York City posted a warmer than normal average temperature. The latest guidance and the historical experience for cases when the first week of March experiences a 65° or above temperature suggest that another warmer than normal month appears likely.

The EPO forecast has been trending more positive. The PNA will likely remain negative for much or all of the first half of March. The AO could go negative, but likely for a limited duration.

An EPO+ coupled with an absence of Arctic or PNA blocking implies warmer than normal readings. Moreover, assuming that the SOI will experience an increased likelihood of negative values, as can happen during the transition to an El Niño event (a possibility going forward), that outcome could amplify the warmth associated with an EPO+ pattern, especially when SOI values are severely negative.

I think we see our first 80+ degree reading of 2017 between 3/15 - 3/31. The 2nd half of March looks more and more like a huge torch

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think we see our first 80+ degree reading of 2017 between 3/15 - 3/31. The 2nd half of March looks more and more like a huge torch

We'll have to watch for the development of a strong ridge in the East. 7/9 80° cases in the 1981-2010 period coincided with an EPO+/AO+ pattern.

[uncle W]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

We'll have to watch for the development of a strong ridge in the East. 7/9 80° cases in the 1981-2010 period coincided with an EPO+/AO+ pattern.

March 1990 had the warmest mid March on record...I wouldn't rule out 80 degrees if this composite verified...

[CIK62]

The CFS which once held out a little hope for March, is showing the usual average of 8 BN days that the past 23 months have featured.   I would not be surprised now if March ends up +4 to +5degs., giving us a scary warm first quarter of the year.     This would amount to a positive surplus of say 5x90=450degs.    If remainder of year were to be normal, we could still end up at 450/365=+1.23degs.

 

[Paragon]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think we see our first 80+ degree reading of 2017 between 3/15 - 3/31. The 2nd half of March looks more and more like a huge torch

Probably looking at around 3/22 or later.  Another prediction is we see our first 90 degree day by 4/20