bluewave Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 44 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 49 so far today for ewr. Well below forecast of 55 Pretty close to guidance which was around 50 for highs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Flakes falling and 42F Come on really now enough cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Mostly light rain currently. Some sleet mixed in over in jersey city. Wasn't expecting that. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 45/23 Overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, mranger48 said: Mostly light rain currently. Some sleet mixed in over in jersey city. Wasn't expecting that. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk maybe that sleet forecast for tonight for us will turn out right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Rain mixed with some ice pellets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Heavy sleet/rain mix. Definitely allot of sleet as it's pinging loudly off AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Heavy sleet/rain mix. Definitely allot of sleet as it's pinging loudly off AC Yup had sleet here too in the Bronx. Snowman19 FTL, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Gotta watch this storm for next week it could produce snow even for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Gotta watch this storm for next week it could produce snow even for our area There's that period of troughing 4/5-4/10 Isotherm and I discussed a few weeks back. Been well modeled. Ironically, much better chance with that pattern even though it's April 8th instead of March 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Goofy Newfie's are getting wacked Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.Strong northeasterly winds gusting to 110 km/h will continue today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 What's March's negative departure at the park after today's 44/38? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Morris said: What's March's negative departure at the park after today's 44/38? They were -3.2F going into yesterday. Yesterday was -2F and today should be -6F or so...Central Park should finish -3.5F. First below normal month since June 2015, hard as that is to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Most stations around the area without the NYC sensor obstruction issues will finish closer the -2 range. Looks like the enhanced tropical convection in Nino 1+2 and fading la Nina were enough to let the ridge to shift further west in March. Most of the country continued the warm pattern in March with what little cold there was focused into the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 56 minutes ago, nzucker said: There's that period of troughing 4/5-4/10 Isotherm and I discussed a few weeks back. Been well modeled. Ironically, much better chance with that pattern even though it's April 8th instead of March 31st. This probably represents the last winter type threat for the NYC area for the season. Obviously, no one would call for a snowstorm on April 8th 192 hours out, but the models have been consistent since mid-March in bringing an unseasonable trough into the area in the 4/5-4/10 period. Could see anything from heavy rain and wind with 40s (most likely) to some snow. Classic set-up for late season snows with a -NAO and GoA low, which, though bad in winter, is now advantageous with short wavelengths. 500mb is a bit like a warmer version of 12/26/10. On the other hand, when that huge negative anomaly in the PAC comes onshore, the SE ridge will burgeon north. Could go from highs in the 30s April 8th to highs in the 70s a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Heavy sleet/rain mix. Definitely allot of sleet as it's pinging loudly off AC Actually even had patches of slushy glaze on my deck when I left the house this morning. Was. It expecting that at all, especially here on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Eduardo said: Actually even had patches of slushy glaze on my deck when I left the house this morning. Was. It expecting that at all, especially here on the south shore. Well according to some here it was impossible. If the sleet pellets are big enough surface temps aren't an issue. Think of summer time hail. There was cold way up obviously above 850, a warm layer around 850 which melleted the snow then a cold layer around 925 that froze the big droplets into sleet that then fell down to the surface with temps around 40. It was actually heavy sleet at one point that woke me up!!! This could be a big period for higher elevations of southern New England. A big dump today and tomorrow followed by another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Well according to some here it was impossible. If the sleet pellets are big enough surface temps aren't an issue. Think of summer time hail. There was cold way up obviously above 850, a warm layer around 850 which melleted the snow then a cold layer around 925 that froze the big droplets into sleet that then fell down to the surface with temps around 40. It was actually heavy sleet at one point that woke me up!!! This could be a big period for higher elevations of southern New England. A big dump today and tomorrow followed by another Hey we've seen sleet in late May, nothing is impossible. We're not talking about warnings or anything being issued lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 hours ago, nzucker said: There's that period of troughing 4/5-4/10 Isotherm and I discussed a few weeks back. Been well modeled. Ironically, much better chance with that pattern even though it's April 8th instead of March 31st. Nate, historically the 4/5-10 period is notable for snow in the NYC area. Much better than March 25-31 at any rate lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 45 minutes ago, Paragon said: Nate, historically the 4/5-10 period is notable for snow in the NYC area. Much better than March 25-31 at any rate lol. Yeah, I've heard that before. It's very interesting how April is usually more productive than March during that time period. Don't forget April 2014 we had some snow mid-month, which is much rarer of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, JerseyWx said: Yeah, I've heard that before. It's very interesting how April is usually more productive than March during that time period. Don't forget April 2014 we had some snow mid-month. It's just a coincidence. Over a long enough time scale I'm sure late march would average out snowier then early April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It's just a coincidence. Over a long enough time scale I'm sure late march would average out snowier then early April Most likely, still a pretty cool fact though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It's just a coincidence. Over a long enough time scale I'm sure late march would average out snowier then early April I'm not completely sure because we have a 150+ year climate record at NYC. The average temp isn't statistically much different between the last week of March and the first week of April, so other factors might be at play. Don't ask me what though lol. But we see a similar clumping during the second week of February- there's no reason it should be happening yet it keeps happening lol. There might be some patterns that keep repeating that we have no complete explanation for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: I'm not completely sure because we have a 150+ year climate record at NYC. The average temp isn't statistically much different between the last week of March and the first week of April, so other factors might be at play. Don't ask me what though lol. But we see a similar clumping during the second week of February- there's no reason it should be happening yet it keeps happening lol. There might be some patterns that keep repeating that we have no complete explanation for. It seems like there's always a potential snow event during the beginning of April. I know last year we had one, even though it didn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 50 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: It seems like there's always a potential snow event during the beginning of April. I know last year we had one, even though it didn't pan out. There's three periods where we seem to have a clumping- Last week of December, second week of February and first week of April. I remember back in 2014 when we got about 0.5-1 inch of snow on April 16th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 May 9th 1977 Frozen precip albeit a trace in NYC. The only one to predict it the night before was the legendary Alan Kasper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, sferic said: May 9th 1977 Frozen precip albeit a trace in NYC. The only one to predict it the night before was the legendary Alan Kasper funny thing is there was thundersnow in the city and yet nothing accumulated. Providence, Rhode Island had 7 inches? Providence doesn't have a significantly colder climate than NYC so I'm thinking that had we been under heavier precip we would have accumulated snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 31 minutes ago, Paragon said: I'm not completely sure because we have a 150+ year climate record at NYC. The average temp isn't statistically much different between the last week of March and the first week of April, so other factors might be at play. Don't ask me what though lol. But we see a similar clumping during the second week of February- there's no reason it should be happening yet it keeps happening lol. There might be some patterns that keep repeating that we have no complete explanation for. 150 years is not nearly enough. I'm talking 1000 years plus. On those types of time frames your going to see snowfall distribution even out to mirror temps and dates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 150 years is not nearly enough. I'm talking 1000 years plus. On those types of time frames your going to see snowfall distribution even out to mirror temps and dates I think there might be a reason why we have patterns like this because certain weather events seem to like to occur around certain dates- probably because a particular event is more likely to occur in that time period because of certain set ups that keep repeating themselves. I don't things would even out like that because I don't believe nature works like that (in nature certain patterns like to keep repeating themselves- you even see this with the clumping of things like superclusters of galaxies on the universe's scale.) Also, the temp difference between the last week of March and the first week of April isn't significantly different- if you were talking about the middle of March vs the first week of April, then I agree with you. March 15-21 is definitely snowier than April 1-7. The other reason for heaviest snowfalls not being co-located with coldest temperatures is that typically when we have our coldest temps we also have suppression. January used to be characterized by smaller snowfalls because of this but recently we've seen a move towards historic January snowfalls as the month has grown warmer overall. The problem with 1000 years plus is that with the climate being so dynamic that the climate 1000 years ago was vastly different so we could never even compare it to today's (and that's even without human influence.) I found an old almanac at the Manhattan Public Library that had NYC temps going all the way back to the 1700s- back in the 1700s and the first half of the 1800s, February was a colder month than January. Both months averaged in the 20s, but February had an average temp of around 25 while January was more like 28. Summers were much cooler too- particularly summer nights (but day time highs also.) Snow88 would have loved our climate back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 44 minutes ago, Paragon said: There's five periods where we seem to have a clumping- Last week of December, second week of February and first week of April. I remember back in 2014 when we got about 0.5-1 inch of snow on April 16th lol. For the 2010's so far, the best period for warning level events has been Jan 20-Feb 20. The OKX forecast zones had a total of 29 warning level events since 09-10. Before Jan 20....9 Jan 20-Feb 20...15 After Feb 20.....5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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