nzucker Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Only 42F and rain here in the Bronx. Doesn't look like we'll see the 60s forecasted. Forecasts have been too high for three days in a row: it was supposed to be 60F Saturday, only hit 55F, yesterday was 41F instead of 49F, today it's 42F instead of 60F. Been a cold March, and departures should stay around -3F given the cold front Wednesday. It's just that averages are warming so cold is 40F and rain now instead of 30F and snow two weeks ago. Looks like NYC will be down in the 30s Wednesday and Thursday night again. Still need that heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Picked up about .40" this morning, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 35 minutes ago, nzucker said: Only 42F and rain here in the Bronx. Doesn't look like we'll see the 60s forecasted. Forecasts have been too high for three days in a row: it was supposed to be 60F Saturday, only hit 55F, yesterday was 41F instead of 49F, today it's 42F instead of 60F. Been a cold March, and departures should stay around -3F given the cold front Wednesday. It's just that averages are warming so cold is 40F and rain now instead of 30F and snow two weeks ago. Looks like NYC will be down in the 30s Wednesday and Thursday night again. Still need that heating. might see some late day highs today as the winds turn S and SW. But agree-60 would be a stretch. Still 41 here...up 3 degrees from this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: might see some late day highs today as the winds turn S and SW. But agree-60 would be a stretch. Still 41 here...up 3 degrees from this AM Still at 44 in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 It's not impossible to hit 60 in Western areas if we get some breaks of sunshine - KUNV is at 59/50 and patches of clearing are spreading eastward. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Still at 44 in the city. Warmth staying south of us again. Mid-to-upper 60s in southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, danstorm said: It's not impossible to hit 60 in Western areas if we get some breaks of sunshine - KUNV is at 59/50 and patches of clearing are spreading eastward. We'll see. Mid 50s have made it to new Brunswick /Edison area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 It's 56 out here in Suffolk. Still completely overcast although the sun is visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Currently 44° w/ 0.31" of precip Yesterday 37° for a high w/ 0.06" of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Only the 5th time since 1880 that NYC reached 70 degrees during the first week of March without making it to 70 for the rest of the month. The previous 4 times were following colder winters. Year....DJF 2017...39.3 2009...34.2 1974...35.3 1972...35.7 1880...37.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: Only the 5th time since 1880 that NYC reached 70 degrees during the first week of March without making it to 70 for the rest of the month. The previous 4 times were following colder winters. Year....DJF 2017...39.3 2009...34.2 1974...35.3 1972...35.7 1880...37.5 When was the last time that the warmest temp of the March was the first of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 10 minutes ago, Morris said: When was the last time that the warmest temp of the March was the first of the month? I think the last time it happened was 1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 As of 5 pm, today was slightly BN. Unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, Morris said: As of 5 pm, today was slightly BN. Unexpected. The South Shore gets bragging rights for the warm spot today. LaGuardia APRT PTSUNNY 47 42 83 NE9 29.99F Kennedy INTL PTSUNNY 57 49 74 VRB7 30.00F TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 57 259 PM 80 1998 52 5 49 MINIMUM 40 308 AM 23 2014 37 3 40 AVERAGE 49 45 4 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Stuck in the mid 40's here. At least the ugly snow piles are continuing to shrink.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Why aren't daily average temperatures simply all the hourlies added up then divided by 24. Of course we have a High and Low for the day but wouldn't a true average be as I postulated above? Wouldn't it be more representative then an fluke high at midnight skewing the day's average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Just now, sferic said: Why aren't daily average temperatures simply all the hourlies added up then divided by 24. Of course we have a High and Low for the day but wouldn't a true average be as I postulated above? Wouldn't it be more representative then an fluke high at midnight skewing the day's average? You can suggest a method for calculating for your phd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Stuck in the mid 40's here. At least the ugly snow piles are continuing to shrink.... The clean snow is melting. The dirt stays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Never made it out of the 40s in Hunts Point. Last two days have had major busts by NWS. They should know by now that warm fronts in the spring never advance as far northward as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: The South Shore gets bragging rights for the warm spot today. LaGuardia APRT PTSUNNY 47 42 83 NE9 29.99F Kennedy INTL PTSUNNY 57 49 74 VRB7 30.00F TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 57 259 PM 80 1998 52 5 49 MINIMUM 40 308 AM 23 2014 37 3 40 AVERAGE 49 45 4 45 I noticed it was a very rare spring day that it was warmer when I left wantagh then it was in Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 7 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: I honestly haven't looked much into the drought recently but one snowstorm doesn't make up the rainfall deficit up here. I'm not talking about making up a deficit, when you make up a long term like we have much of that water runs off because there is no way for it to soak in or be stored. Currently if you step off the pavement water squishes up around your shoe, creeks are running hard, local ponds are overflowing and the reservoirs are as full as they can be with the overflow res.'s running over their dams. Everything is soggy and saturated so at this point anything we get here will just run off. It may be different in sw CT where Brian is but 25 miles north of him any more water would have no good place to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 27 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I noticed it was a very rare spring day that it was warmer when I left wantagh then it was in Manhattan The warm front just snuck in along the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 rain cooled air created a de facto warm front. at least nj got to see 55+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 the areas that got heavier totals stayed cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 The 18z GFS backed way off on rain totals for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 2 hours ago, Morris said: The clean snow is melting. The dirt stays. Excellent point. For that reason alone snow should never be referred to as dirty, or in any other negative way for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 2 hours ago, sferic said: Why aren't daily average temperatures simply all the hourlies added up then divided by 24. Of course we have a High and Low for the day but wouldn't a true average be as I postulated above? Wouldn't it be more representative then an fluke high at midnight skewing the day's average? Of course it would, but years ago they didn't have the technology for that, now it would be simple. Of course 30 year averages and comparatives would all be thrown upside down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Of course it would, but years ago they didn't have the technology for that, now it would be simple. Of course 30 year averages and comparatives would all be thrown upside down. They had the technology to divide by 24 years ago... The issue is not one of technology, its that many of the secondary obs sites used high/low in the past because they weren't constantly monitored. Of course, there's no reason to divide by 24. It should be done using integrals now that we have constant obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 i think the models are too far north with the heavier rains tomorrow and we'll get more than forecast. we are at the northern limit of the elevated CAPE yet the models show heavy convective precip in new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i think the models are too far north with the heavier rains tomorrow and we'll get more than forecast. we are at the northern limit of the elevated CAPE yet the models show heavy convective precip in new england RGEM is wetter south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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