March 2017 Discussion & Observations

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

After an afternoon high of 41 Thursday (23rd) with sun most of the day and a Friday morning low of 21, the snow pack Friday (24th) morning is 6.0 inches.

Yesterday only 0.8 inches in snow depth was lost, despite a bright March sun most of the day and temps that were above freezing by early afternoon. Most of the reduced melt rate I would attribute to the condensed ice pack the almost two feet of snow has compressed and melted into the past 10 days. Areas on hills sloping towards the sun all day show bare spots. 81 days of snow cover this winter and counting, To be continued tomorrow.

Below is the snow cover of 1 inch or more so far this season. Despite a top ten warmest December through February it stands at 81 days and counting this season.

..............Eastern Orange County Winter 2016/17
................Days with snowpack and total snow
.........................................Consecutive......Snowfall
Begin date........End Date.....Days 1" cover....during period
20-Nov-16.......26-Nov-16.........6...................4.0
05-Dec-16.......26-Dec-16........21..................9.6
29-Dec-16.......31-Dec-16..........2..................1.7
06-Jan-17........12-Jan-17..........6..................2.7
14-Jan-17........16-Jan-17..........2..................1.0
23-Jan-17........22-Feb-17.........30................26.0
10-Mar-17........24-Mar-17.........14................25.7

...............................Totals......81................70.7

[Brian5671]

^^^^^

impressive.   The end is nigh though as there will be 5 days with temps above freezing around the clock and high dewpoints....around here we are down to piles-some of these parking lot piles will take a month to melt.   One of them is 15 feet high!

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

After an afternoon high of 41 Thursday (23rd) with sun most of the day and a Friday morning low of 21, the snow pack Friday (24th) morning is 6.0 inches.

Yesterday only 0.8 inches in snow depth was lost, despite a bright March sun most of the day and temps that were above freezing by early afternoon. Most of the reduced melt rate I would attribute to the condensed ice pack the almost two feet of snow has compressed and melted into the past 10 days. Areas on hills sloping towards the sun all day show bare spots. 81 days of snow cover this winter and counting, To be continued tomorrow.

Below is the snow cover of 1 inch or more so far this season. Despite a top ten warmest December through February it stands at 81 days and counting this season.

..............Eastern Orange County Winter 2016/17
................Days with snowpack and total snow
.........................................Consecutive......Snowfall
Begin date........End Date.....Days 1" cover....during period
20-Nov-16.......26-Nov-16.........6...................4.0
05-Dec-16.......26-Dec-16........21..................9.6
29-Dec-16.......31-Dec-16..........2..................1.7
06-Jan-17........12-Jan-17..........6..................2.7
14-Jan-17........16-Jan-17..........2..................1.0
23-Jan-17........22-Feb-17.........30................26.0
10-Mar-17........24-Mar-17.........13................25.7

...............................Totals......81................70.7

My pack was 5.5" yesterday evening but grass has emerged under the trees and on the south facing side of the yard.

[NJwx85]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

nope.   Models had the next few days being snowy and icy and it's shifted 100's of miles north.   Instead we get drizzle and light rain that amounts to very little through Sunday night

Next week still looks really active.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, nzucker said:

Anyone buying the overrunning mixed precip event in early April?

Maybe for northern New England 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

My pack was 5.5" yesterday evening but grass has emerged under the trees and on the south facing side of the yard.

Yep bare spots under a lot of the tress here too, especially the evergreens. No way we're making it to April 1 which is what I was hoping for but still 14 days and counting of a mid to late March snow pack is not bad.

[BxEngine]

Pouring graupel. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe for northern New England 

I mean it has snowed before in April. Never know.

[Wetbulbs88]

Precip running into a dry wall near the shore. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Precip running into a dry wall near the shore. 

yeah looking at radar earlier I thought we'd get some good showers, but it's drying up.  Models fairly dry now until later Sunday as well.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I mean it has snowed before in April. Never know.

And the further N & W you go from NYC it's pretty standard most Aprils to get at least a couple of inches.

NYC has had 27 of their 148 April's with an inch or more of snow, granted the far majority pre 1970 but since 1982 there have been several significant winter storms in the NYC area, it's not the freak event snowman19 seems to think it is. The last one in NYC is the April 7 2003 4-6 inch snow storm that canceled the Yankees home opener. April 9 2000 saw 1.2 inches in the city and over a foot in some suburbs. April 1, 1997 saw over a foot in the suburbs N & W of the city, April 9, 1996 saw 1-4 inches in NYC and over a foot on LI. April 6, 1982 of course 10-12 inches in NYC and up to 20 in the suburbs. Many others in the suburbs during that period that were a cold rain in NYC.

Every 5-7 years or so someone in our area sees 6-10 inches plus in April, it's hardly a freak event.

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And the further N & W you go from NYC it's pretty standard most Aprils to get at least a couple of inches.

NYC has had 27 of their 148 April's with an inch or more of snow, granted the far majority pre 1970 but since 1982 there have been several significant winter storms in the NYC area, it's not the freak event snowman19 seems to think it is. The last one in NYC is the April 7 2003 4-6 inch snow storm that canceled the Yankees home opener. April 9 2000 saw 1.2 inches in the city and over a foot in some suburbs. April 1, 1997 saw over a foot in the suburbs N & W of the city, April 9, 1996 saw 1-4 inches in NYC and over a foot on LI. April 6, 1982 of course 10-12 inches in NYC and up to 20 in the suburbs. Many others in the suburbs during that period that were a cold rain in NYC.

Every 5-7 years or so someone in our area sees 6-10 inches plus in April, it's hardly a freak event.

The last April accumulation in NYC was 4/14/2014, not 2003. I had 0.5" in Bay Ridge and 1" in southern Westchester. 

Last April, I was in the Poconos at 1500'...we had three snowfalls, 4", 4", and 1". The last one was around April 10th. NYC had a trace and a low of 26F. 

April snowfalls are not uncommon, especially in the first half of the month, though it can be after. JFK saw 2" on 4/19/83, and Dobbs Ferry had 0.2" on 4/27/67. 1967 had snow into May in elevated locations; 10 years later, the 5/10/77 storm paralyzed New England.

There may be one more threat for the subforum in the April 5-10 period. Looks as if a trough comes down, and it's still possible to get snow out of a trough that time of year.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 minutes ago, nzucker said:

The last April accumulation in NYC was 4/14/2014, not 2003. I had 0.5" in Bay Ridge and 1" in southern Westchester. 

Last April, I was in the Poconos at 1500'...we had three snowfalls, 4", 4", and 1". The last one was around April 10th. NYC had a trace and a low of 26F. 

April snowfalls are not uncommon, especially in the first half of the month, though it can be after. JFK saw 2" on 4/19/83, and Dobbs Ferry had 0.2" on 4/27/67. 1967 had snow into May in elevated locations; 10 years later, the 5/10/77 storm paralyzed New England.

There may be one more threat for the subforum in the April 5-10 period. Looks as if a trough comes down, and it's still possible to get snow out of a trough that time of year.

I agree wholeheartedly, I was just trying to point out what I considered the significant ones I could do from memory, but like I said there are several others in the last 35 years I didn't have time to mention, thanks for adding them. I'm sure there are several others the last 35 years if we researched. I was kid during the May 10 1977 storm and we had about 4 inches in the HV where I live but I remember one town in the Catskills had 27 inches from that storm. Snow in May around here that you can call a freak event but In April it's very common.

[bluewave]

Looks like the warm sector struggles to get very far north of NYC on Saturday.

 

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the warm sector struggles to get very far north of NYC on Saturday.

 

Hope it stalls just south of the city

[NJwx85]

Very sharp gradient on the 4k NAM, Pushing 70 at TTN while SWF is in the 40's.

[Morris]

56 in the park at 6 pm.

[Stormlover74]

Upton has low 50s for Newark dropping into the upper 40s. Very high bust potential.

Meanwhile we'll shave off a few tenths from our negative departure each day for the remainder of the month, particularly with the cloud cover and milder over night lows doing the trick

[Cfa]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Hope it stalls just south of the city

We get more than enough of that.

[nzucker]

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I agree wholeheartedly, I was just trying to point out what I considered the significant ones I could do from memory, but like I said there are several others in the last 35 years I didn't have time to mention, thanks for adding them. I'm sure there are several others the last 35 years if we researched. I was kid during the May 10 1977 storm and we had about 4 inches in the HV where I live but I remember one town in the Catskills had 27 inches from that storm. Snow in May around here that you can call a freak event but In April it's very common.

What did you get on May 18 2002? Had a couple inches in Poconos that day in the middle of afternoon.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the warm sector struggles to get very far north of NYC on Saturday.

 

Could be 60F at EWR and 45F at HPN. Expecting a lot of backdoors with a ridge to tye south of the area and strong troughing near Newfoundland, as well as deep snow cover to north.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

What did you get on May 18 2002? Had a couple inches in Poconos that day in the middle of afternoon.

Could be 60F at EWR and 45F at HPN. Expecting a lot of backdoors with a ridge to tye south of the area and strong troughing near Newfoundland, as well as deep snow cover to north.

I wouldn't call this a backdoor cold front. A true backdoor is normally an occluded front retrograding westward off the Atlantic from a stalled strong low pressure system. This is a frontal boundary sagging south from Canada via surface high pressure influence

[Juliancolton]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I wouldn't call this a backdoor cold front. A true backdoor is normally an occluded front retrograding westward off the Atlantic from a stalled strong low pressure system. This is a frontal boundary sagging south from Canada via surface high pressure influence

At least give proper attribution when you steal tweets to make it look like you know what you're doing.

[Animal]

Shocked that folks NW of the city see sounds & smell color.

truth be told. this winter sucked. I can see colors and smell sounds. ASK JB or DT

[doncat]

Station mean temp so far at 36.5 degrees.... -3.8 departure.

[nzucker]

27 minutes ago, doncat said:

Station mean temp so far at 36.5 degrees.... -3.8 departure.

The 18z GFS continued the theme of a significant cold snap in the 4/5-4/10 period, a time a lot of us are watching. With a strong ridge over the Western Plains and a departing coastal, 850s drop to near -10C. There is light snow behind the coastal low as well as the overrunning from the Plains. 

I haven't put my winter jacket away yet. I wouldn't be surprised if the BDCF clears the area completely by Wednesday, bringing in cold air and potential overrunning precip. That plus the cold advertised 4/5-10 means the ski jacket stays out.

[WeatherFeen2000]

22 minutes ago, nzucker said:

The 18z GFS continued the theme of a significant cold snap in the 4/5-4/10 period, a time a lot of us are watching. With a strong ridge over the Western Plains and a departing coastal, 850s drop to near -10C. There is light snow behind the coastal low as well as the overrunning from the Plains. 

I haven't put my winter jacket away yet. I wouldn't be surprised if the BDCF clears the area completely by Wednesday, bringing in cold air and potential overrunning precip. That plus the cold advertised 4/5-10 means the ski jacket stays out.

 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

 

The long range op GFS? Really?

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

At least give proper attribution when you steal tweets to make it look like you know what you're doing.

Nothing was stolen slugger

[Juliancolton]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Nothing was stolen slugger

Perhaps, but you'd have never considered the distinction without having seen this:

 

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The long range op GFS? Really?

A lot of the runs have shown snow/mix  behind a departing low on 3/31 as well as the 4/5-4/10 cold period.

One thing is for certain: the idea of a warm March with 80s by late month looks completely incorrect. The GFS has been showing a new below normal pattern, starting Wednesday.