JerseyWx Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Windier than I expected this morning, had some very strong gusts. 32° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 1 hour ago, dWave said: Good point. I've noticed too LGA while always a warm spot, has been especially warm for a while now. I wonder if the extensive construction going on there is a factor. LGA is just located in the ideal area for warmth around the area. While it gets similar high temperatures to Newark this time of year, the water influence keeps its minimum temperatures warmer. The only difference between EWR and LGA during Feb was the minimum temperatures. Feb...EWR...41.6...max...50.3...min 32.9....LGA...42.8...max...50.0....min...35.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 miserable outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 32 with strong gusty winds Feels like February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 27 minutes ago, psv88 said: miserable outside I couldn't agree more. Yesterday was a tease. It's the wind that kills me working outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 42 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I couldn't agree more. Yesterday was a tease. It's the wind that kills me working outside. Manhattan has all-or-nothing wind microclimates. Walking south or east generally protects you from N/W winds on these cold days. But walking west or (particularly) North, and you're in trouble. Serious gusts increased by wind-tunneling between buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 What a waste of a setup on the 12z Euro with that good blocking over SE Canada, 50/50 low and Southern piece ejecting out of the Plains, but the Pacific is knocking down the ridge and preventing the Southern wave from amplifying more. To me this scenario screams cut off low over the TN Valley with redevelopment off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What a waste of a setup on the 12z Euro with that good blocking over SE Canada, 50/50 low and Southern piece ejecting out of the Plains, but the Pacific is knocking down the ridge and preventing the Southern wave from amplifying more. To me this scenario screams cut off low over the TN Valley with redevelopment off the coast. What would it take to lessen the Pacific's impact? If its energy were to be slower to come ashore? Could the Euro be overplaying its kicker effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 I think tonight has the potential to be the last freeze for some. It's late March, which is when many areas in and around the city would normally see their last freeze. But the city's not out of the woods until mid-April, so we won't know until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: What would it take to lessen the Pacific's impact? If its energy were to be slower to come ashore? Could the Euro be overplaying its kicker effect? Even if that was to hit, it's an all rain event, the cold air is totally cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Even if that was to hit, it's an all rain event, the cold air is totally cutoff Typical late March climo on the 12z Euro with brief warm ups and backdoor cold fronts with the frozen precip over the higher elevation Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, Cfa said: I think tonight has the potential to be the last freeze for some. It's late March, which is when many areas in and around the city would normally see their last freeze. But the city's not out of the woods until mid-April, so we won't know until then. Yeah, my area usually has a last freeze around the 2nd or 3rd week of April. Last frost is tricky, every so often it comes in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 2 hours ago, psv88 said: miserable outside Gettin' "warmed" up for backdoor front season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Even if that was to hit, it's an all rain event, the cold air is totally cutoff Because of the Low placement/cold high sliding off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Even if that was to hit, it's an all rain event, the cold air is totally cutoff I didn't mean to imply that it would be a frozen event. The Pacific is preventing a typical late March Noreaster with lots of rain and wind. See March 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Because of the Low placement/cold high sliding off the coast? We're in late March, you need a real anomalous setup to lock in truly cold air this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 The 12z JMA looks like the Euro as far as the weekend is concerned, but it has a similar setup a few days later, except that the Pacific is much better. So instead of a sheared out mess in the Ohio Valley, you have a strengthening SLP over the Southern Plains with a digging trough and a massive rainmaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 FWIW the 12z GEFS mean has our area above average in the rainfall department through the first week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We're in late March, you need a real anomalous setup to lock in truly cold air this time of year. That makes sense. As a thought experiment I was thinking, if this were late Jan or Feb, what it would take for this to trend toward a bigger hit, even if not all frozen. I'm just beginning to dig into the deeper science of this after a short lifetime of basically model-watching. I can better parse where there might be amplified vorticity as a result of sheer/curve/gradients, but it's only really a start and reading the maps is still very new and difficult for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 30 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Gettin' "warmed" up for backdoor front season? No...one big difference between living in NW Nassau and living in NW Suffolk, is often much cooler out in Suffolk in the spring. Could be 70 in NW Nassau and 62-63 by me, really just awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: No...one big difference between living in NW Nassau and living in NW Suffolk, is often much cooler out in Suffolk in the spring. Could be 70 in NW Nassau and 62-63 by me, really just awful Westerly winds and 90's is tough to pull off in Suffolk during April unless it's 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 36 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah, my area usually has a last freeze around the 2nd or 3rd week of April. Last frost is tricky, every so often it comes in May. Yeah, freezes are easy to predict, but frosts are quite variable. Sometimes you'll get a freeze with no frost or frost damage on plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Wetbulbs88 said: That makes sense. As a thought experiment I was thinking, if this were late Jan or Feb, what it would take for this to trend toward a bigger hit, even if not all frozen. I'm just beginning to dig into the deeper science of this after a short lifetime of basically model-watching. I can better parse where there might be amplified vorticity as a result of sheer/curve/gradients, but it's only really a start and reading the maps is still very new and difficult for me. Just in general, you want ridging over the Rockies which allows energy dropping down from Canada to dig Southeast. The Pacific jet has been plaguing us all Winter, which has resulted in a mean trough in the Southwest and mean ridge in the Southeast. We saw a break from that in March which allowed for the recent Wintry activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: I didn't mean to imply that it would be a frozen event. The Pacific is preventing a typical late March Noreaster with lots of rain and wind. See March 2010. Oh yea, I know you didn't. I just clarified in case anyone thought that's what you meant lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 4 hours ago, Cfa said: I think tonight has the potential to be the last freeze for some. It's late March, which is when many areas in and around the city would normally see their last freeze. But the city's not out of the woods until mid-April, so we won't know until then. It's a little early for NYC but certainly not impossible. 2014 had a last freeze on 4/15 for example. And outlying areas will get another freeze tomorrow night. The 12z GFS shows a cold tuck behind a late-blooming coastal around Day 8. With -5C 850s, that could easily yield another freeze on 3/29, especially with a cloudy day and clearing night behind storm. This cold shot definitely trended less impressive. Looks like around 20F tonight for NYC instead of the mid-teens shown originally on the Euro. Tomorrow rebounds quickly into the mid 40s, much faster than imagined. Cold shots in late March tend tobe brief, no exception here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 My low for tonight has been trending lower over the last few days. Now they have it at 12* but that really will depend on the wind dying. We still have complete snowcover on anything that isn't wide open, sun exposed and south facing or was nearly blown clean during the big storm last week. Strangely enough parking lot piles are going away very quickly this time. I'm wondering if that has to do with the excessive use of salt on the roads this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 I'm at 21 now. Projected low of 14. Winds have started to drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 28 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 40 minutes ago, nzucker said: It's a little early for NYC but certainly not impossible. 2014 had a last freeze on 4/15 for example. And outlying areas will get another freeze tomorrow night. The 12z GFS shows a cold tuck behind a late-blooming coastal around Day 8. With -5C 850s, that could easily yield another freeze on 3/29, especially with a cloudy day and clearing night behind storm. This cold shot definitely trended less impressive. Looks like around 20F tonight for NYC instead of the mid-teens shown originally on the Euro. Tomorrow rebounds quickly into the mid 40s, much faster than imagined. Cold shots in late March tend to be brief, no exception here. Yeah, a few days ago the Euro had Northwestern NJ in the low single digits. It seems that cold shots, even in mid-winter, tend to moderate. Of course there are exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 23, 2017 Author Share Posted March 23, 2017 Current temp is down to 27 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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