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March 2017 Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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Winter is the best, tracking winter storms is such a thrill. I was disappointed that last weeks storm was not a 20 incher but still we still have snow on the ground and it's wonderful. Last night inverted trough didn't work out but it's okay we're still just a bit about average so I'm happy being such a warm winter and all. Oh by the way Anthony you and I were the only ones that put down March as the month that would be below average...

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-4 despite the 70 for the high on the first...1972 had 70's the first two days in March and it ended up below normal...it will get colder again this week and then warm up...after the warm up it will get cold again and maybe more snow...80 degrees isn't that far off so you warmth lovers will have your day soon...

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The fading Nina and onset of Nino 1+2 warming finally allowed the Pacific to shift gears as March got underway. That persistent Nina vortex over the PAC NW began to split with a piece going SW near Hawaii. That's what it finally took for some extended cold here as the SE ridge pulled back closer to the SW US. Now the ensembles shift that PAC NW vortex even more later in March with a piece going back to the Bering Sea and another over the Western US. So this shuffle allows our old friend the SE ridge to make another return.

Winter

A.gif.666c71d8274f9185b2dcecb92021c203.gif

 

March so far

B.gif.8e630cb7b5d8b40dc9bdcf9fab1a5bfc.gif

 

Late March pattern begins to emerge

 

eps_z500a_noram_41.thumb.png.f48baabb80d4661e6216b978edd18891.png

 

 

 

 

 

Now we just hope next winter's SST anomaly in the pacific doesn't resemble 07-08 or 90-91/91-92 and we should see the coldest winter in at least 3 years 

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17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Now we just hope next winter's SST anomaly in the pacific doesn't resemble 07-08 or 90-91/91-92 and we should see the coldest winter in at least 3 years 

The bar is set pretty low for a colder winter next year than the last 2. All we need to do is stay below about 39 degrees. But posters will tolerate another warm one near 40 if the snowfall continues to deliver.

 

1 2001-2002 41.5 0
2 2015-2016 41.0 0
3 2011-2012 40.5 0
4 1931-1932 40.1 0
5 1997-1998 39.6 0
6 2016-2017 39.3 0
7 1990-1991 39.1 0
8 1998-1999 38.6 0
9 1948-1949 38.5 0
10 1889-1890 38.4 2
11 1952-1953 38.1 0
12 1982-1983 37.9 0
- 1936-1937 37.9 1
14 1996-1997 37.8 0
- 1932-1933 37.8 3
16 1949-1950 37.6 2
17 1974-1975 37.5 0
- 1879-1880 37.5 2
19 1953-1954 37.4 0
20 2005-2006 37.3
 
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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

-4 despite the 70 for the high on the first...1972 had 70's the first two days in March and it ended up below normal...it will get colder again this week and then warm up...after the warm up it will get cold again and maybe more snow...80 degrees isn't that far off so you warmth lovers will have your day soon...

An 80 degree day would be nice to melt this damn snow.

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8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

it seems any enso can be good or bad for us...I knew an enzo from the old neighborhood but that's another story...mei was slightly negative this winter...some other slightly negative mei winters were colder than 2017...

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

Yeah, there is no such thing in the 2000's as a bad ENSO for snow. The one thing that matters is that we get our favorable blocking intervals near Alaska, the pole, or Greenland. The only 4 dud winters since 2000-2001 were a result of a raging +EPO in 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, there is no such thing in the 2000's as a bad ENSO for snow. The only thing that matters is that we get our favorable blocking intervals near Alaska, the pole, or Greenland.

the warm Atlantic near the coast helps...any cold air has that to tap into if there is a storm near by...

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3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the warm Atlantic near the coast helps...any cold air has that to tap into if there is a storm near by...

It's like rocket fuel for available storms once the pattern becomes favorable. Be interesting to see how long it takes to get another KU in December like Boxing Day.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It's like rocket fuel for available storms once the pattern becomes favorable. Be interesting to see how long it takes to get another KU in December like Boxing Day.

December needs a negative AO to be cold or snowy...I grew up listening to stories about the December 1947 storm and it's big sister in 1948...two very similar storms...

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11 minutes ago, uncle W said:

December needs a negative AO to be cold or snowy...I grew up listening to stories about the December 1947 storm and it's big sister in 1948...two very similar storms...

That has been the pattern. The last solid -AO's in December were in 2009 and 2010. December 2012 had the bootleg -AO attached to the SE ridge.

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That has been the pattern. The last solid -AO's in December were in 2009 and 2010. December 2012 had the bootleg -AO attached to the SE ridge.

not every negative ao December had a lot of snow...but most of the snowy ones did...

 

12 19 1948.gif

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Another snow eating day, 44F.  The nice thing is that we didn't get any heavy rain to go along with these warm sunny days.  By the time we have a chance for rain, most of the snow will be gone for many of us, especially after the next couple of days.

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I havent looked at the numbers but this lack of a -NAO has to now be up there with that stretch from 1988-1993.  That one was probably a result of the colder AMO, not exactly sure what the reason for this one is but I suspect something with the SSTs although the I cause is probably indirect 

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I don't think the 2009-2010 pattern will ever be repeated in my lifetime. Strong negative AO and very warm Pacific. I was home sick from school (U of Maryland) in Ellicott City, just W of Baltimore, for the back-to-back blizzards in early Feb. Best week of my life (not to mention wee'd had the December Miller A blizz already). I know it might be blasphemous to talk about up in these parts, but that block during Feb. 5-6 was pure bliss to see in a place where I experienced so much heartbreak from a lifetime of battling marginal temps and Miller B's jumping the coast. We got almost 32 inches in Ellicott City and then another 15 during that Feb 9-10 blizzard that looked like a napalm hose on radar. A pattern that executes to perfection is once in a lifetime. 

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13 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Another snow eating day, 44F.  The nice thing is that we didn't get any heavy rain to go along with these warm sunny days.  By the time we have a chance for rain, most of the snow will be gone for many of us, especially after the next couple of days.

Still have 15" at the stake 

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51 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I havent looked at the numbers but this lack of a -NAO has to now be up there with that stretch from 1988-1993.  That one was probably a result of the colder AMO, not exactly sure what the reason for this one is but I suspect something with the SSTs although the I cause is probably indirect 

the nao has been positive during the winter most of the time in the last several years...It has been negative during some summers...

2010  -1.11  -1.98  -0.88  -0.72  -1.49  -0.82  -0.42  -1.22  -0.79  -0.93  -1.62  -1.85
2011  -0.88   0.70   0.61   2.48  -0.06  -1.28  -1.51  -1.35   0.54   0.39   1.36   2.52
2012   1.17   0.42   1.27   0.47  -0.91  -2.53  -1.32  -0.98  -0.59  -2.06  -0.58   0.17
2013   0.35  -0.45  -1.61   0.69   0.57   0.52   0.67   0.97   0.24  -1.28   0.90   0.95
2014   0.29   1.34   0.80   0.31  -0.92  -0.97   0.18  -1.68   1.62  -1.27   0.68   1.86
2015   1.79   1.32   1.45   0.73   0.15  -0.07  -3.18  -0.76  -0.65   0.44   1.74   2.24
2016   0.12   1.58   0.73   0.38  -0.77  -0.43  -1.76  -1.65   0.61   0.41  -0.16   0.48
2017   0.48   1.00
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