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March 2017 Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Really impressive for this time of year. I can almost guarantee the one record that won't ever be broken there is the low max for 3/13 thanks to the blizzard of 1888. I don't think we'll ever have an 11 degree high temp on that date 

You can see all the other low maxes for this period are in the 25-30F range. The Blizzard of 1888, though we don't have 500mb maps, was probably a triple phaser that phased a brutal PV directly into a trough, resulting in a system that was relatively far west (started as rain in NYC), but which had a lot of cold air on the backside. That set-up is so rare it will probably never be replicated.

1888 was a very cold climate period too. I believe the spring of 1888 was one of the coldest on record for NYC.

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15 minutes ago, nzucker said:

You can see all the other low maxes for this period are in the 25-30F range. The Blizzard of 1888, though we don't have 500mb maps, was probably a triple phaser that phased a brutal PV directly into a trough, resulting in a system that was relatively far west (started as rain in NYC), but which had a lot of cold air on the backside. That set-up is so rare it will probably never be replicated.

1888 was a very cold climate period too. I believe the spring of 1888 was one of the coldest on record for NYC.

1887-88 was one of the coldest winters on record before the blizzard...Most of the major storms tracked west of the city bringing mostly rain or freezing rain that began as snow...

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5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the way this year is going I expect it will get cold again after the warm up...

Many times after cold periods in March, we get into a backdoor patterns where the highs hold in over Canada and we get plenty of onshore flow. So any warm ups may do better SW of NYC than to the north or east. Could also be a stormy period with plenty of energy trying to cut underneath.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Many times after cold periods in March, we get into a backdoor patterns where the highs hold in over Canada and we get plenty of onshore flow. So any warm ups may do better SW of NYC than to the north or east. Could also be a stormy period with plenty of energy trying to cut underneath.

March 1967 had record warmth the first half and record cold the second half...April 1st fooled with another record torch...a few days later it was back to cold and wet or white...

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40 minutes ago, uncle W said:

March 1967 had record warmth the first half and record cold the second half...April 1st fooled with another record torch...a few days later it was back to cold and wet or white...

The closest winter to March temperature analog for this year I can find was 1931-1932. That was also one of the warmest winters on record followed by a shift to cold in March. But this year is in a league of it's own with respect to seasonal snowfall coupled with March snowfall following such a warm winter. 31-32 only had around 5" seasonal vs the 30"+ this year.

I mentioned the La Nina fading early yesterday helping out with this late shift to colder with the more -SOI and Nino 1+2 warming. As it turns out, something similar happened with the switch to the colder March 32. That winter featured cold neutral to weak La Nina conditions that faded early like this year did. So we had to go very far back in time for a winter to March La Nina analog. 

58cbf3da97c42_Screenshot2017-03-17at10_20_49AM.png.e0d039feb0b4823e7e2b949ea826e457.png

 

A.png.78d745f1db1407dea989b837e917fdc1.png

B.png.1dd8d560fe97ed38314edb03fa31dc99.png

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The closest winter to March temperature analog for this year I can find was 1931-1932. That was also one of the warmest winters on record followed by a shift to cold in March. But this year is in a league of it's own with respect to seasonal snowfall coupled with March snowfall following such a warm winter. 31-32 only had around 5" seasonal vs the 30"+ this year.

I mentioned the La Nina fading early yesterday helping out with this late shift to colder with the more -SOI and Nino 1+2 warming. As it turns out, something similar happened with the switch to the colder March 32. That winter featured cold neutral to weak La Nina conditions that faded early like this year did. So we had to go very far back in time for a winter to March La Nina analog. 

58cbf3da97c42_Screenshot2017-03-17at10_20_49AM.png.e0d039feb0b4823e7e2b949ea826e457.png

 

A.png.78d745f1db1407dea989b837e917fdc1.png

B.png.1dd8d560fe97ed38314edb03fa31dc99.png

1931-32 was in the midst of a long snow drought that was broken the next winter...1932-33 was a warm winter that ended colder...

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15 hours ago, nzucker said:

You can see all the other low maxes for this period are in the 25-30F range. The Blizzard of 1888, though we don't have 500mb maps, was probably a triple phaser that phased a brutal PV directly into a trough, resulting in a system that was relatively far west (started as rain in NYC), but which had a lot of cold air on the backside. That set-up is so rare it will probably never be replicated.

1888 was a very cold climate period too. I believe the spring of 1888 was one of the coldest on record for NYC.

there had to be decent blocking too-the storm went on for 2 days at least...

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4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

45° + March sun angle is really doing a job on the snowpack.

Truth...the same temp in January would not melt nearly as fast with the lower sun angle.  I'd say we've shrunk here by 40% since the end of the storm especially in south facing full sun areas

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Truth...the same temp in January would not melt nearly as fast with the lower sun angle.  I'd say we've shrunk here by 40% since the end of the storm especially in south facing full sun areas

Yeah, I agree.  Even to the skin 45° in March feels different than 45° in mid-January.

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43 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Right?  Liking that warm sun.

 

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well it's basically equivalent to mid-late September so that's pretty toasty. Just need the rest of this crappy glacier to melt away and the 60s and 70s to come back. 

You can see the sharp cutoff line SW to NE across the SE parts of the region.

 

t1.17076_USA4_143.1000m.thumb.jpg.071a1b6fb199f4212aafeea3d01684bb.jpg

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

You can see the sharp cutoff line SW to NE across the SE parts of the region.

 

t1.17076_USA4_143.1000m.thumb.jpg.071a1b6fb199f4212aafeea3d01684bb.jpg

 

wow that's a great shot!  I didn't realize the cutoff was that dramatic by us in Monmouth County. I still have quite a bit of snow and huge snow piles by me in Marlboro, but when I drove down to Eatontown about 15 miles east of me last night for a banquet, there was hardly any snow piles there.  I couldn't believe it. 

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1 minute ago, JERSEYSNOWROB said:

wow that's a great shot!  I didn't realize the cutoff was that dramatic by us in Monmouth County. I still have quite a bit of snow and huge snow piles by me in Marlboro, but when I drove down to Eatontown about 15 miles east of me last night for a banquet, there was hardly any snow piles there.  I couldn't believe it. 

The complete opposite of 2/6/10.

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