March 2017 Discussion & Observations

[MJO812]

GEFS and EPS

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

To be honest, get me to average and I'll call it a winter. I'm close 25" so I would only need 2-3" 

Im at 23 for the season. I don't think 30 inches is out of the question if we get 1 more storm.

[bluewave]

The EPS is really bullish on the two cold shots in early March. This could be our next window of opportunity for measurable snowfall around the region. The other consideration is that there could be a damaging freeze for areas of the mid-Atlantic that have seen a record 3 week early spring bloom.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is really bullish on the two cold shots in early March. This could be our next window of opportunity for measurable snowfall around the region. The other consideration is that there could be a damaging freeze for areas of the mid-Atlantic that have seen a record 3 week early spring bloom.

 

 

 

Looks like we might go back to a warmer pattern by later March. Our window is going to be in the first 2 weeks of the month, closer to mid month.

[EastonSN+]

What I find amazing is how some of the population thinks that somehow it cannot get cold and stormy again. This entire winter has been the same pattern which is warm periods followed by shorter colder and stormy periods. Jeez most of the area is at or just below average snowfall. Fairfield and Easton CT are 1 inch from average. So why the beach is it hard to believe the models when it shows exactly what has been happening all winter so far.

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What I find amazing is how some of the population thinks that somehow it cannot get cold and stormy again. This entire winter has been the same pattern which is warm periods followed by shorter colder and stormy periods. Jeez most of the area is at or just below average snowfall. Fairfield and Easton CT are 1 inch from average. So why the beach is it hard to believe the models when it shows exactly what has been happening all winter so far.

Of course it can get cold again in March. The issue was the asinine wishcast of "January cold" coming

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course it can get cold again in March. The issue was the asinine wishcast of "January cold" coming

I agree with that. Right now I see nothing to suggest March 1993 or 1888 is walking through the door. As bluewave stated there are solid indicators for colder times in March. 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course it can get cold again in March. The issue was the asinine wishcast of "January cold" coming

Who thinks January cold is coming?

[donsutherland1]

My thoughts haven't changed much from Tuesday (2/21) when I posted my early thinking on March in the February discussion/observation thread. Since that time, a period of AO blocking showed up on the ensembles, but odds favor its being fairly short-duration. The 500 mb and 700 mb pattern on the CFSv2, which is now moving into its more skillful range, is broadly similar to the charts from my earlier discussion. My thoughts, which remain little changed right now, were as follows:

Since late December the EPO has been swinging between negative and positive phases that have lasted between 13-15 days. The EPO is again forecast to go negative around February 22 before returning to positive values on March 7. That would imply a 13-day period of EPO- values. My assumption is that this fairly regular oscillation will likely persist through much of March before the shortening wave lengths break this pattern. This pattern could break with either a given phase becoming longer-lasting or less stable. 

At the same time, the ensembles are pointing to a PNA-/AO+ pattern to begin March. That has been the predominant pattern this winter. Therefore, I suspect this pattern will last into at least a meaningful portion of March.

Right now, if I had to venture a guess, March would see a predominant EPO+/PNA-/AO+ pattern in the mean values. That outcome would favor a warmer than normal March. I have little change from my earlier thinking that the second week of March has the highest probability of featuring below normal readings.

Having said this, there’s still a good prospect of measurable snow at some point in March, with the period running from the middle of the first week of March to mid-month perhaps offering the greatest probability of measurable snowfall. This does not necessarily mean that March will be snowy. 

Below are 500 mb and surface temperature anomaly charts for EPO+/PNA-/AO+ patterns where blocking is largely non-existent for large parts of the month. It would not surprise me to see the 500 mb pattern evolve toward the composite pattern shown below, particularly after the second week of the month. 

In sum, my preliminary idea is that March will feature above normal temperatures in and around the New York City area. Were the SOI to feature a sustained period of negative values, that could increase prospects for a period of much warmer than normal conditions.

 

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that people will be happy if we can score a rare near or above normal March snowfall for the 2010's with the cold intervals that we get. Only 2 out of the last 7 Marches in NYC made it to normal or even above normal snowfall in NYC of 3.6". So March has been a tough snowfall month here outside 2013 and 2015. But March can be a very volatile month so it's hard to guess whether we just add some more light measurable snowfall like most 2010's years or something more significant.

NYC 2010's March snowfall...2010...T....2011...1.0....2012....0.....2013....7.3....2014...0.1...2015...18.6....2016....0.9.

It seems like the 90s featured more above normal March snowfalls whilst the DJF months were by in large below normal. That flipped since 1999.

[EastonSN+]

One thing I would add to the prospects of accumulating snow in March is the lack of any threats on the guidence, and the EURO and GGEM is far less cold than the GFS. However last year we had a decent snow mid March so its still early.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think that people will be happy if we can score a rare near or above normal March snowfall for the 2010's with the cold intervals that we get. Only 2 out of the last 7 Marches in NYC made it to normal or even above normal snowfall in NYC of 3.6". So March has been a tough snowfall month here outside 2013 and 2015. But March can be a very volatile month so it's hard to guess whether we just add some more light measurable snowfall like most 2010's years or something more significant.

NYC 2010's March snowfall...2010...T....2011...1.0....2012....0.....2013....7.3....2014...0.1...2015...18.6....2016....0.9.

Wait we actually had almost 20" of snow in March 2015? I knew I didn't remember that wrong lol.

[forkyfork]

the gfes backed off on the pna ridge and the strength of the -nao

[WeatherFeen2000]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Who thinks January cold is coming?

January average high for Central Park is around 38 degrees. I think we should definitely have some days that don't reach 38, that's what I was referring to!

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

January average high for Central Park is around 38 degrees. I think we should definitely have some days that don't reach 38, that's what I was referring to!

He probably thought you meant 20s lol

[Rtd208]

I have doubts on seeing any more snow but its certainly possible. As a couple of my previous posts stated I think winter is over weather wise IMO, I think March will be active with storms but I am thinking wet versus white.

[danstorm]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think that people will be happy if we can score a rare near or above normal March snowfall for the 2010's with the cold intervals that we get. Only 2 out of the last 7 Marches in NYC made it to normal or even above normal snowfall in NYC of 3.6". So March has been a tough snowfall month here outside 2013 and 2015. But March can be a very volatile month so it's hard to guess whether we just add some more light measurable snowfall like most 2010's years or something more significant.

NYC 2010's March snowfall...2010...T....2011...1.0....2012....0.....2013....7.3....2014...0.1...2015...18.6....2016....0.9.

Hate to say it because you post great stuff, but the numbers you've post do not corroborate your argument.  

In fact, the average snowfall in the 7 year period above is just about 4.0" ... snowfall isn't a continuous thing like temperature - it comes in discrete bursts that aren't normally distributed.  Of course there will be dramatic year to year variations, especially when examining over a short time interval (like a month).  

[Paragon]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

He probably thought you meant 20s lol

We could definitely have lows in the 20s.  Aren't we supposed to have a low in the 20s next Friday?

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Hate to say it because you post great stuff, but the numbers you've post do not corroborate your argument.  

In fact, the average snowfall in the 7 year period above is just about 4.0" ... snowfall isn't a continuous thing like temperature - it comes in discrete bursts that aren't normally distributed.  Of course there will be dramatic year to year variations, especially when examining over a short time interval (like a month).  

Sure, that's why I recommend we use median rather than mean for snowfall numbers.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

We could definitely have lows in the 20s.  Aren't we supposed to have a low in the 20s next Friday?

I'm talking about highs

[dmillz25]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Shocker! The GFS has been blocking and cold happy all winter long in the long range. It's starting its correction warmer. I tried warning people to no avail. I wasn't saying it to be an ass. Its cold bias this winter was severe

We all know this about the GFS but the Euro is showing it as well albeit weaker

[pazzo83]

One or two days of highs <35F is normal for any March.

A couple things to keep in mind for March:

1. SSTs are around where they were last year (45-50F), running several degrees above normal.  That could present some issues for coastal areas with any storm.

2. The northern tier of the country is WAY below normal in terms of snow cover, as are the Great Lakes in terms of ice-cover.  Those factors will help to moderate any Arctic surge more so than a typical March.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

We all know this about the GFS but the Euro is showing it as well albeit weaker

Both models show blocking

Gfs is clipper city

[nzucker]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

March 2015 was the only March during the 2010's that could pull its weight among the record snowfalls during October, November, December, January, and February. While parts of the region did well in April 2003, the April 82 blizzard was in a class by itself. That was also the last 3 record lows in a row for NYC. All the spring warmth recently makes an April event like that tough to achieve.

We had near record cold last April, but just missed a major storm. Parts of CT had 6"+ on 4/8...

I was up in the Poconos for early April last year, and we had two 4" snowfalls. We also had two nights in a row that reached the lower teens...I think it was 12F one night and 14F the next. 

Last year was the biggest April cold snap since 2007. We finished slightly above normal though due to a warmer second half.

[Paragon]

7 hours ago, nzucker said:

We had near record cold last April, but just missed a major storm. Parts of CT had 6"+ on 4/8...

I was up in the Poconos for early April last year, and we had two 4" snowfalls. We also had two nights in a row that reached the lower teens...I think it was 12F one night and 14F the next. 

Last year was the biggest April cold snap since 2007. We finished slightly above normal though due to a warmer second half.

I was really sad we missed out on a snowstorm last April  Even with full sunshine it felt like the middle of January in the middle of the day!  We had something like that on one of those blustery April days back in the 90s too!

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, nzucker said:

We had near record cold last April, but just missed a major storm. Parts of CT had 6"+ on 4/8...

I was up in the Poconos for early April last year, and we had two 4" snowfalls. We also had two nights in a row that reached the lower teens...I think it was 12F one night and 14F the next. 

Last year was the biggest April cold snap since 2007. We finished slightly above normal though due to a warmer second half.

Really no comparison to to April 1982 with the latest blizzard and record Arctic outbreak for NYC since the 1870's and 1880's. That storm is still near the top of my favorites list despite numerous amazing events here in the 2000's.

[bluewave]

The Euro has some of the earliest 850's this warm for March 1st. So it will all come down to how fast the frontal passage with the clouds and scattered showers moves into the region. Enough  sun with 850's this high would allow areas from DC north and east to make a very early run on 80 degrees.

 

 

 

 

[JerseyWx]

4 hours ago, Paragon said:

I was really sad we missed out on a snowstorm last April  Even with full sunshine it felt like the middle of January in the middle of the day!  We had something like that on one of those blustery April days back in the 90s too!

I agree, early April had some potent cold last year.  Like nzucker said though, the warm second half erased any trace of it.

[psv88]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has some of the earliest 850's this warm for March 1st. So it will all come down to how fast the frontal passage with the clouds and scattered showers moves into the region. Enough  sun with 850's this high would allow areas from DC north and east to make a very early run on 80 degrees.

 

 

 

 

Uhhh...that is insane...

[WEATHERBUFF]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has some of the earliest 850's this warm for March 1st. So it will all come down to how fast the frontal passage with the clouds and scattered showers moves into the region. Enough  sun with 850's this high would allow areas from DC north and east to make a very early run on 80 degrees.

 

 

 

 

I believe very soon we will see 80+ even in Jan or Feb